2024 POTUS - polling only

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:A complete nail biter, from CNN’s latest set of battleground polls.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html


Error margin is 4.5% to 4.8%, so pretty much a tie except Arizona (Trump), Michigan(Harris) and Wisconsin(Harris).

Likely voters, Harris vs Trimp
Arizona 44% 49%
Georgia 48% 47%
Michigan 48% 43%
Nevada 48% 47%
Pennsylvania 47% 47%
Wisconsin 50% 44%
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:CNN had McCain and Obama tied at this point in the race in 2008. Were they really tied in September 2008 or was the polling garbage?

When in September? Lehman failed on the 15th.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Seriously, there are worse GOP operatives, but not by much.

Halperin is a sex pest, how does he still have a career?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:


cnn is trash
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A complete nail biter, from CNN’s latest set of battleground polls.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html


Error margin is 4.5% to 4.8%, so pretty much a tie except Arizona (Trump), Michigan(Harris) and Wisconsin(Harris).

Likely voters, Harris vs Trimp
Arizona 44% 49%
Georgia 48% 47%
Michigan 48% 43%
Nevada 48% 47%
Pennsylvania 47% 47%
Wisconsin 50% 44%


Funny they didn't poll NC since Harris is doing very well there, and she is doing well on Georgia too.
Anonymous
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4862259-kamala-harris-lead-grows-donald-trump-americans-under-45/

Vice President Harris’s lead over former President Trump among Americans under the age of 45 has expanded to the widest margin since she became the Democratic Party’s nominee, according to a new poll.

The new Economist/YouGov poll, released Wednesday, found that Harris has a 22 percentage point lead, 56 to 34 percent, over Trump among adults 45 and younger. While trailing with the younger electorate, Trump bested Harris among registered voters who are 65 and older. The former president outpaced Harris with 56 percent support compared to her 39 percent.
Anonymous


If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).





Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).





Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%



Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).





Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%



Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.


Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Seriously, there are worse GOP operatives, but not by much.

Halperin is a sex pest, how does he still have a career?


The same way Trump does. Some people are allowed to get away with anything.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).





Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%



Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.


Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.


This isn’t 1982 anymore. With early voting and social media and targeted GOTV, there’s a lot more motivation and opportunity for young people to vote.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:A complete nail biter, from CNN’s latest set of battleground polls.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html

This shows Casey and McCormick as tied? Hilarious.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

No panic noted in video.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).
dp... I still don't think under 30 will vote in large numbers.

It's the Independent and female voters that Harris needs to win.




Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%



Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.


Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.


This isn’t 1982 anymore. With early voting and social media and targeted GOTV, there’s a lot more motivation and opportunity for young people to vote.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%



Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.


Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.

They voted at 50% in 2020.
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