2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

A complete nail biter, from CNN’s latest set of battleground polls.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html

[Anonymous]

CNN had McCain and Obama tied at this point in the race in 2008. Were they really tied in September 2008 or was the polling garbage?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CNN had McCain and Obama tied at this point in the race in 2008. Were they really tied in September 2008 or was the polling garbage?

Mobile phones make polling mostly irrelevant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CNN had McCain and Obama tied at this point in the race in 2008. Were they really tied in September 2008 or was the polling garbage?

It's a great question but possible they were.

Obama really pulled away as the recession worsened (disapproval of Bush grew further) and his name recognition increased exponentially. Not sure on the exact timing and trajectory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nate Silver is exactly right. You would think with all this media adulation and a highly rated DNC, Harris would be crushing in the national and swing state polls. She hasn’t even had a bounce at all in any national polling average or swing state polling average. Her momentum in late July and early August has stalled and reversed in some cases. That’s not good. Just look at the data and take off your ideological blinders.

Actually, I think she's done an amazing come back from Biden.

-Independent.

She’s doing better than a candidate who probably had a 20% chance of winning in his current state. That’s not something to brag about.

She is polling way below Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. That’s what should concern you. You shouldn’t be arrogant because she’s outperforming Biden in 2024, who would have been crushed in a landslide.

Literally no one is arrogant (except Trump). We are hopeful and feeling positive. That is different from feeling like it's all in the bag. No one with any sense believes it is all in the bag.

+1 we are impressed with what she's done so far and cheering her on. Happy that there is hope. But realizing there's a lot of work to do and uncertainty regardless. It's okay to be sanguine while doing the work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m afraid she is losing Pennsylvania.

I live in PA and I agree she is losing PA.

What part? Are you a rural Pennsylvanian? Or do you live in one of the urban areas?

I'm originally from Pittsburgh (Fetterman territory), and from my friends who still live there, Pittsburgh is supportive of Harris. I'm sure Philly, Scranton, Allentown are too. That's like 3/4 of the state in those areas.

I will say I am in a blue county of PA, and just anecdotally I see way more Trump signs this time around, none for Harris. Puzzling. We are overestimating Harris popularity here. Talking to others, they are saying its 50-50 here.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CNN had McCain and Obama tied at this point in the race in 2008. Were they really tied in September 2008 or was the polling garbage?

It's a great question but possible they were.

Obama really pulled away as the recession worsened (disapproval of Bush grew further) and his name recognition increased exponentially. Not sure on the exact timing and trajectory.

The stock market crashed yesterday because of recession fears and last month’s jobs report was revised to capture the loss of 800,000+ jobs that were unreported. Harris better hope that things don’t get worse this month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

i feel like if you don't know how to spell battleground you might not be such an expert? maybe

this is quite a pic that this pollster chose here

but yeah! polling is broken! maybe trump is five ahead but it feels like not?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Jesus the margin of error on that “survey” is 10.6%!

You know what though? Yup. Trump has it in the bag. You don’t need to vote because all the Latinos will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If Charlie Kirk and Mark Halperin are saying it, I'm believing the opposite.

[Anonymous]

Seriously, there are worse GOP operatives, but not by much.