Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

There are already shenanigans going on in PA. For instance, several Trump leaning counties have decided that they won't even count the mail-in ballots until next Wednesday. This could potentially make it seem as if Trump has a big lead (since mail-in ballots lean blue), and as these "unreliable/voter fraud" mail-in counts come in, it changes to blue. It allows him the bandwidth to call into question, the integrity of the election. Which is one of the reasons I'm really hoping that places like Florida and Texas fall into the Biden column. Then no one will care what happens in PA.

This is terrible but I think it's both a convenient way to suck up to Trump while also helping them manage limited resources. If they are indeed Trump-leaning counties they need to staff the in-person polling places are close to full capacity. It seems like it would be legitimately difficult to also have people counting mail-in ballots at the same time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting. Hopefully that will change on Tuesday. I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though. I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters.
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout)
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout)
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout)
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting. Hopefully that will change on Tuesday. I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though. I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters.
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout)
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout)
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout)
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden

Where is this data from? I haven't seen this before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting. Hopefully that will change on Tuesday. I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though. I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters.
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout)
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout)
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout)
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden

Where is this data from? I haven't seen this before.

Answering my own question, I guess.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

If you look at Miami-Dade, for instance, if you go by party ID alone (excluding the 'other' and unaffiliated), the D advantage is only 100K or so. Overall, it's only 200k or so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting. Hopefully that will change on Tuesday. I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though. I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters.
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout)
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout)
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout)
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden

Where is this data from? I haven't seen this before.

Answering my own question, I guess.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

If you look at Miami-Dade, for instance, if you go by party ID alone (excluding the 'other' and unaffiliated), the D advantage is only 100K or so. Overall, it's only 200k or so.

The polls show that we're not expecting Democrats to turn out much more than Republicans. What we're expecting is for independents to swing toward Biden and for more Republicans to vote for Biden than Democrats voting for Trump.

The Florida early vote data are consistent with an electorate that is not necessarily more weighted towards Democrats. And that doesn't mean Biden will lose.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

If you look at the 2016 polls in a four person race it was a dead heat. National Poll Clinton was up +4 but it ended up being +2.

not sure why people think 2016 was such an upset when it really wasn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If Biden takes Texas none of the other states matter

You could say the same about Florida.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you look at the 2016 polls in a four person race it was a dead heat. National Poll Clinton was up +4 but it ended up being +2.

not sure why people think 2016 was such an upset when it really wasn't.

First, because Trump's rise was so improbable to begin with and second because Clinton was doing so well after the pussy tape but before the Comey letter. I didn't expect either event and I did not expect the size of the reactions after either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you look at the 2016 polls in a four person race it was a dead heat. National Poll Clinton was up +4 but it ended up being +2.

not sure why people think 2016 was such an upset when it really wasn't.

Because only 32 days before the election we learned from Donald himself that he likes to grab women by the pu$$y.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If Biden takes Texas none of the other states matter

You could say the same about Florida.

You can always say that about Florida, but this is the first time Texas is a swing state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting. Hopefully that will change on Tuesday. I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though. I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters.
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout)
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout)
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout)
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden

Where is this data from? I haven't seen this before.

Answering my own question, I guess.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

If you look at Miami-Dade, for instance, if you go by party ID alone (excluding the 'other' and unaffiliated), the D advantage is only 100K or so. Overall, it's only 200k or so.

Trump only won Florida last time by 112,911 votes. It is going to be close again this time, too, regardless of who wins.

This is what I keep reminding myself while trying not to panic over what looks like slightly underwhelming numbers to me. I'd still rather be Biden than Trump, looking at these figures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you look at the 2016 polls in a four person race it was a dead heat. National Poll Clinton was up +4 but it ended up being +2.

not sure why people think 2016 was such an upset when it really wasn't.

First, because Trump's rise was so improbable to begin with and second because Clinton was doing so well after the pussy tape but before the Comey letter. I didn't expect either event and I did not expect the size of the reactions after either.

+1 and also Trump was just so AWFUL. it did not seem possible people would want to be governed by him even if they were amused.

[Anonymous]

I am in Philly burbs. Tons of Trump signs here.