Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Just trying to clean up the daily poll threads - many of them started by me, sorry - so that we have one big 2020 master thread.

Biden still seems to be the clear front runner - +4 in the Economist's latest poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3gj4ffirhi/econTabReport.pdf

+12 in Morning Consult: https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

+8 in Wisconsin compared to the other dems, per Marquette: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf

Marquette has him +9 over Trump in Wisconsin, which will give me *actual* relief on November 4, 2020 when we (gd willing) have a new president elect

Sanders is +4 over Trump in Wisconsin, Warren and Harris are more or less tied with Trump in the state

[Anonymous]

Dismal job approval numbers for Herr Twitter - these are all from RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_of_the_union/

Wednesday, September 4
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
President Trump Job Approval Harvard-Harris Approve 45, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +10
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 46, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +6
President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 46, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +5
President Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 43, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +11
Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 13, Disapprove 65 Disapprove +52
Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 40, Wrong Track 52 Wrong Track +12
Direction of Country Harvard-Harris Right Direction 37, Wrong Track 56 Wrong Track +19

[Anonymous]

Oh my

[Anonymous]

Hopefully the next debate is the end for Biden.

[Anonymous]

I take this seriously - and it's a big reason I don't count Biden out even if the young woke very online people don't seem to love him

https://apnews.com/1326430d85d0460583f562fd13c6e8a0

Analysis: Black votes will define electability for Democrats

For all the strategic calculations, sophisticated voter targeting and relentless talk about electability in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democratic presidential nomination will be determined by a decidedly different group: black voters.

African Americans will watch as mostly white voters in the first two contests express preferences and winnow the field — then they will almost certainly anoint the winner.

So far, that helps explain the front-running status of former Vice President Joe Biden. He has name recognition, a relationship with America’s first black president and a decadeslong Democratic resume. Black voters have long been at the foundation of his support — his home state of Delaware, where he served as a U.S. senator for nearly four decades, is 38 percent black — and until another presidential candidate proves that he or she can beat him, he is likely to maintain that support.

In the 2008 campaign, Hillary Clinton held a strong lead among black voters over Barack Obama until he stunned her by winning the Iowa caucuses and proved to black voters that he was acceptable to a broad spectrum of Democrats. Those same voters returned to Clinton in 2016.

Full Coverage: Election 2020
This cycle, many black voters are also making a pragmatic choice — driven as much or more by who can defeat President Donald Trump as the issues they care about — and sitting back to see which candidate white voters are comfortable with before deciding whom they will back.

At the same time, the early courtship of black voters, overt and subtle, is part of a primary within the primary that includes detailed plans on issues like criminal justice reform, reparations, maternal mortality among black women, voter suppression and systemic racism.

“As black voters and movers and drivers of national politics, our self-image and awareness of our power and influence is evolving,” said Aimee Allison, founder of the She the People network, which hosted the first presidential forum aimed specifically at female voters of color.

Trump appealed to black voters during the 2016 campaign by saying “What the hell do you have to lose?” and ended up with only 8 percent of the black vote. But the Republican president again is saying he will try to win over black voters, frequently citing low unemployment and his own success in signing criminal justice legislation. So far, there is no evidence to suggest that he will succeed.

But the first test of the decisiveness of black voters will come in the primaries. African Americans make up roughly 13 percent of the U.S. population but 24 percent of the Democratic primary electorate. That number is more formidable in the early primary state of South Carolina, where black voters are two-thirds of primary voters, and in other early voting states like Georgia, Alabama and Virginia.

Biden reminded black reporters in a recent roundtable that his strength is not just with working class whites, but with the black voters he’s known for more than half a century in politics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hopefully the next debate is the end for Biden.

I doubt it.

Took him 10 years to decide to run, will take him at least a few months to decide to leave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hopefully the next debate is the end for Biden.

I doubt it.

Took him 10 years to decide to run, will take him at least a few months to decide to leave.

I agree that he will be toast long before he actually accepts it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hopefully the next debate is the end for Biden.

I doubt it.

Took him 10 years to decide to run, will take him at least a few months to decide to leave.

I agree that he will be toast long before he actually accepts it.

Crazy 6 months ahead!

[Anonymous]

Everyone should be focused on Iowa

The big 5 are much closer bunched there than the rest of the polls

[Anonymous]

Texas poll from @TexasLyceum:
@JoeBiden 24%
@BetoORourke 18%
@ewarren 15%
@BernieSanders 13%
@JulianCastro 4%
@KamalaHarris 4%
@amyklobuchar 3%
@PeteButtigieg 3%
@GovernorBullock 2%
@AndrewYang 2%
@CoryBooker 2%
Everyone else 1% & below.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460132-texas-poll-biden-leads-2020-democrats-by-6-points?amp&__twitter_impression=true

[Anonymous]

Another Texas poll:
Texas General Election Matchup:

Biden 43
Trump 43

Trump 45 (+1)
O'Rourke 44

Trump 45 (+4)
Sanders 41

Trump 45 (+6)
Warren 39

Trump 44 (+8)
Buttigieg 36

Trump 45 (+8)
Castro 37

Trump 45 (+8)
Harris 37

Climate Nexus Poll
https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/Texas-Poll-Toplines-and-Crosstabs-PR1921.pdf

[Anonymous]

2020 National Democratic Primary:
Biden 27%
Warren 24%
Sanders 15%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Yang 2%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Messam 1%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 0%
de Blasio 0%
Delaney 0%
Sestak 0%
Steyer 0%
Williamson 0%

@YougovUS/@FairVote 9/2-6
https://www.fairvote.org/democratic_primary_2020_poll#spread_of_democratic_frontrunner_rankings

[Anonymous]

2020 National Democratic Primary:
Biden 28%
Sanders 21%
Warren 12%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 4%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 2%
Castro 2%
Gabbard 2%
Williamson 2%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Bennet 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Steyer 0%
Delaney 0%
Messam 0%

McLaughlin & Associates 9/7-10
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/National-Monthly-Omnibus-September-Public.pdf

[Anonymous]

Biden is going to collapse after he gets the nomination. He might hang on until the first debate. After that it’s over.

[Anonymous]

The link is less important than Twitter commentary. What was once shocking is hilarious. And this makes me worry!

Trump lashed out at the new poll in a series of early-morning tweets on Wednesday.

"In a hypothetical poll, done by one of the worst pollsters of them all, the Amazon Washington Post/ABC, which predicted I would lose to Crooked Hillary by 15 points (how did that work out?), Sleepy Joe, Pocahontas and virtually all others would beat me in the General Election," he wrote.

https://start.att.net/news/read/article/newsweek-joe_biden_leads_donald_trump_by_15_points_2020_ele-rnewsweek/category/news+