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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The big concern for Florida right now, is that Miami-Dade is not turning out in large numbers, for early voting.  Hopefully that will change on Tuesday.  I would never pin my hopes on Florida, though.  I'm sure they'll find new and interesting ways to eff everything up.[/quote]

Largest counties in FLA - first # is the number of early votes so far and second number is total registered voters. 
(64-34 D) Miami-Dade: 808,524 out of 980,204 total (82.5% of 2016 turnout)
(66.5-31.5 D) Broward: 665,329 out of 1,237,005 (80.0% of 2016 turnout)
(56.5-41 D) Palm Beach: 504,815 of 998,969 (76.2% of 2016 turnout) 
(51.5-44.5 D) Hillsborough: 479,994 of 910,069 (80.3% of 2016 turnout)
(60-35.5 D) Orange: 418,526 of 836,904 (76.6% of 2016 turnout)
(48.5-47.5 R) Pinellas: 370,895 of 694,843 (75.3% of 2016 turnout)
(49-47.5 R) Duval: 316,733 of 645,938 (72.3% of 2016 turnout) 
(58.5-38.5 R) Lee: 284,039 of 475,573 (87.0% of 2016 turnout)
(55.5-41.5 R) Polk: 200,195 of 458,027 (70.4% of 2016 turnout) 
(58-38 R) Brevard: 240,129 of 441,585 (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

The lowest turnout counties are the rural counties, but it's not like Miami-Dade will be a ghost town on Election Day. If turnout is over 1.1M, even 1.05M, that will be a huge help as that is an additional +15-30k gap for Biden [/quote]

Where is this data from?  I haven't seen this before.  [/quote]

Answering my own question, I guess.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

If you look at Miami-Dade, for instance, if you go by party ID alone (excluding the 'other' and unaffiliated), the D advantage is only 100K or so.  Overall, it's only 200k or so.  [/quote]

The polls show that we're not expecting Democrats to turn out much more than Republicans.  What we're expecting is for independents to swing toward Biden and for more Republicans to vote for Biden than Democrats voting for Trump.

The Florida early vote data are consistent with an electorate that is not necessarily more weighted towards Democrats.  And that doesn't mean Biden will lose.[/quote]

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