Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
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Anonymous
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I have posted a lot of pessimism on this board related to how Biden was polling relative to Clinton. I am finally feeling better because by now she was losing a ton of momentum and he seems to be holding steady. I am still holding my breath but feel like we could actually be on track to end the nightmare.
This page on Real Clear Politics is a big reason too: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-favorability-ratings-2020-vs-2016/. By now HRC's favorability was +4.5 and falling (peak was +17.3 about 3 weeks out). Biden's favorability is +19.4 and steady/rising). Feels like a really good sign and makes it seem like a surprise next week is less likely. Fingers crossed. |
Anonymous
| Enough with RCP. They don’t weight pollsters based on quality. |
Anonymous
Thanks for the anecdote. |
Anonymous
"You shoulda gone to the Y-M-C-A, you should gone to the Y-M-C-A" |
Anonymous
The Economist feels strongly that Biden will win. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president Allan Lichtman says Biden will win. Rachel Bitecofer says Biden will win. Never discount GOP cheating - a passion for which I dearly wish they’d apply to taking care of the environment or solving systemic racism - but Trump looks likely to be ground into dust. |
Anonymous
| I think Trump is going to win because the polls have undercounted shy Trump voters. And there will likely be shenanigans at the Court — again. I hope, hope, hope that I’m wrong but...... |
Anonymous
There a NO shy Trump voters. Really, just stop. Biden has this in the bag. Trump is a disgrace, weak loser. People are dying and he’s declared victory. Yes, on Election Day it will look like Trump has the votes but that will shift as the night goes on and early votes are counted. It will become more clear on Wed, midday. Trump will try to call it but that is not his to call. We the people will have spoken. We want our children to have a better future. |
Anonymous
Please cite. |
Anonymous
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UPDATED 538 poll data for 10/29/20: - Updates since 10/28/20 in mandarin color
Alaska: B-43.4%, T- 50.8%; T+7.4 Missouri: B-44.6%, T- 51.3%; T+6.7 Montana: B-45.1%, T- 50.7%; T+5.6 Nebraska: B-44.3%, T- 50.5%; T+6.2 Ohio: B-46.5%, T- 46.6%; B+0.1 South Carolina: B-43.6%, T- 51.4%; T+7.8 Texas: B-46.8%, T- 48.1%; T+1.3 Arizona: B-8.5%, T- 45.7%; B+2.7 Florida: B-48.6%, T- 46.5%; B+2.1 Georgia: B-48.3%, T- 46.7%; B+1.6 Iowa: B-47.0%, T- 46.6%; B+0.4 Michigan: B-50.7%, T- 42.6%; B+8.1 Nevada: B-49.7%, T- 43.5%; B+6.2 North Carolina: B-49.0%, T- 46.8%; B+2.2 Pennsylvania: B-50.0%, T- 44.9%; B+5.1 Wisconsin: B-51.7%, T- 43.2%; B+8.4 |
Anonymous
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Dems in 2016: But we won popular vote.
Trumpers in 2020: But our rallies were so much bigger. |
Anonymous
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NEW QUINNIPIAC POLL OHIO:
BIDEN 48% TRUMP 43% |
Anonymous
In 538's snake chart, Ohio is pretty far from the tipping point. |
Anonymous
Look at 538. The odds of Biden landslide are much higher than a narrow Trump victory. In other words, more like there are shy Biden voters. |
Anonymous
Yes - it was 87-13 for Biden last week but a couple of days ago 88-11 (with 1% chance indep) and now 89-11... Still 11% is not small. I would feel more confident with 98-2 or 99-1. |
Anonymous
I live in Ohio and I’m skeptical of this |