Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For everyone who says the polls were soo00 wrong in 2016:


So, this is a poll from this time in the election in Michigan, after Comey blindsided Clinton.


https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

Clinton's lead had dropped to 4 points, with 12 percent undercided. It was within the margin of error, and Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes.


Here's a poll from today.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/27/group-voters-powering-joe-biden-lead-over-trump-michigan/6050358002/

with Biden up 8 points, with 7 points undecided.

I can’t see the poll because it’s behind a paywall. I think you have to feel pretty good about any state where Biden is over 50%. Plus there’s far fewer undecideds. Last time the “haters vote” (undecideds who didn’t like either Clinton or Trump) broke for Trump, and this time there are fewer of them and they’re breaking for Biden.

I don’t know. I’m cautiously optimistic. Maybe that’s foolish of me. I think Biden will come away with a pretty convincing EC victory and it’s not going to hinge on just one close state a la Bush/Gore in Florida.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone who says the polls were soo00 wrong in 2016:


So, this is a poll from this time in the election in Michigan, after Comey blindsided Clinton.


https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

Clinton's lead had dropped to 4 points, with 12 percent undercided. It was within the margin of error, and Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes.


Here's a poll from today.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/27/group-voters-powering-joe-biden-lead-over-trump-michigan/6050358002/

with Biden up 8 points, with 7 points undecided.

I can’t see the poll because it’s behind a paywall. I think you have to feel pretty good about any state where Biden is over 50%. Plus there’s far fewer undecideds. Last time the “haters vote” (undecideds who didn’t like either Clinton or Trump) broke for Trump, and this time there are fewer of them and they’re breaking for Biden.

I don’t know. I’m cautiously optimistic. Maybe that’s foolish of me. I think Biden will come away with a pretty convincing EC victory and it’s not going to hinge on just one close state a la Bush/Gore in Florida.

Democrat Joe Biden's lead in Michigan is persisting with a week until the Nov. 3 election and heavy support from female voters in the state, according to the latest Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll released Tuesday.

Overall, Biden is ahead 49.3% to 41.6% over President Donald Trump in the survey of 600 likely voters conducted by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group during the three days following Thursday's final debate in Nashville. It is about an 8 percentage point lead.
The Oct. 23-25 poll, which had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, found the former vice president to have a striking 24.5-point lead among female voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We MIGHT be able to infer quite a bit about Florida and beyond by 7:15pm on Nov 3. Gosh wouldn't that be nice.

Two counties in Florida to watch, Sumter and Pinellas.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-one-florida-county-could-tell-us-about-gray-revolt

One week to go exactly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

Unsure. I don’t see the methodology on their site.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

No. They also use fewer sources, so one outlier has a bigger impact.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

No. They also use fewer sources, so one outlier has a bigger impact.

[twitter] https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1321242249456504834?s=21[/twitter]

I’m really inept at posting screenshots or tweets here, but Nate silver literally just posted the same alarm about PA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

No. They also use fewer sources, so one outlier has a bigger impact.

[twitter] https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1321242249456504834?s=21[/twitter]

I’m really inept at posting screenshots or tweets here, but Nate silver literally just posted the same alarm about PA.

Well if you look at his snake diagram, the tipping point is still PA and the odds barely budged in the past few weeks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

No. They also use fewer sources, so one outlier has a bigger impact.

[twitter] https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1321242249456504834?s=21[/twitter]

I’m really inept at posting screenshots or tweets here, but Nate silver literally just posted the same alarm about PA.

Well if you look at his snake diagram, the tipping point is still PA and the odds barely budged in the past few weeks.

This is a very stable race. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

Does RCP weight polls based on quality?

No. They also use fewer sources, so one outlier has a bigger impact.

RCP includes right-wing partisan "broken clock" polls like Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Rasmussen but conveniently excludes certain polls that have had good results for Biden like Civiqs. Even on 538 Biden's lead is too small for comfort (largely thanks to these same pollsters), but he is still very likely to win PA.

[Anonymous]

92.1% of non-Hispanic Black absentee voters in SC have now returned their ballots.

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1321256870082916356?s=21

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Silver gives Biden an 86 in 100 chance in Pennsylvania as of 10 minutes ago.

RCPs average polling for Biden in PA is down 3.8% after tralfagar and insider advantage (two republican pollsters) have Biden ties and losing, respectively, in polls released over the last day. I take that with a terrifying grain of salt.

Trump could win FL. Republicans showed up to match dem early vote surge.

And WI is a nightmare waiting to happen - 400k ballots mailed, post office announcing that ballots mailed TODAY won’t arrive in time, and the BS kavanaugh hearing.

It’s close in several states and it could be a ****ing shitshow. Or it could be a landslide for Biden. We know nothing after the 2016 polls, and the depths of corruption and suppression the GOP is capable of.

If you click through you can look at the Insider Advantage poll, here it is. https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf
They only polled 400 people to get that result. That's not a valid sample size. That doesn't mean that the race isn't tightening because it could be but it does mean that this poll has a large margin of error.