Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
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Anonymous
| Biden’s not doing all that great in Pennsylvania. Nate Silver has an analysis out today. He’s only 5 points up there, so if the polls are off like they were in 2016 Trump has a very real shot in PA. |
Anonymous
| Pretty much every news outlet, including Fox, are saying this is Biden's unless a major upset. Trump has no chance. |
Anonymous
No, a major upset is a chance. |
Anonymous
Trump needs a bigger error than 2016 to win. |
Anonymous
Trump has about a 20% chance. In 2016, it was a 36% chance. Until is is a 1% or 0% chance, we fight hard, we get everyone to vote, we phone bank and volunteer at the polls etc. |
Anonymous
| Did the debate comments drag Biden down in PA? |
Anonymous
The problem is the Democrats have never had a problem snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Nobody better be complacent, even now. If you haven't voted, do it now -- and it's too late to do with any certainty by mail. Help other vote. Keep momentum going. |
Anonymous
| R's are playing ballot shenanigans in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). They are already undermining the PA results. |
Anonymous
No. Everyone understands we need to transform our country to a green energy economy. It is HOW we do it that matters. Trump and the GOP would rather cater to fossil fuel interests. I don't think there are 150,000 front line fossile fuel workers in the US right now - mostly in TX, OK, ND and some in PA. We need to ramp up having the drillers morph to geothermal and expand solar and wind power. We need to being a robust transformation of gas filling stations to charging stations. Etc. |
Anonymous
Well the polls can be off in either direction. The current average is getting dragged down by one InsiderAdvantage poll that has Trump up 3 points. That poll is sponsored by the "Center for American Greatness", a right-leaning media company. Every other poll in the 538 average has Biden up by 5+ points. Could this be a case like 2016 where the one right-wing pollster had it right? Sure. But remember these pollsters are like a broken clock - it's correct twice a day. Maybe 2020 is that day. Probably not. |
Anonymous
| I am more concerned about GOP shenanigans than anything else. |
Anonymous
|
For everyone who says the polls were soo00 wrong in 2016:
So, this is a poll from this time in the election in Michigan, after Comey blindsided Clinton. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/ Clinton's lead had dropped to 4 points, with 12 percent undercided. It was within the margin of error, and Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. Here's a poll from today. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/27/group-voters-powering-joe-biden-lead-over-trump-michigan/6050358002/ with Biden up 8 points, with 7 points undecided. |
Anonymous
| Don’t pay attention to individual polls. |
Anonymous
LINk? |
Anonymous
My friend and her husband had a hell of a time voting in Pittsburgh. Requested absentee ballots- never arrived. Called and requested replacement absentee ballots- never arrived. Finally decided the only way to get their votes in was to go early, wait on a long line, and vote in person. What is all that about? 4 ballots that should have been mailed never arrived. |