US has no good options in Ukraine

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why would he make this into a public Twitter feud?

See above - putting pressure on the Administration/NSC to get out of their own way.

Please Biden is president not trump. Trump would share info with the Russians. Biden and Nato are all in and are sharing intelligence with Ukraine. Ukraine wants the Russians to enter the cities. Fighting in urban areas negates the advantages of armor, heavy artillery, or air support. The Russians do not have enough troops to hold the country. They would need around 800k. If the Ukraine fortifies one city with 25k defenders the Russian would need 75-100k to take the city. That is only if the Russians could cut the city off from resupply. In a week or two the Ukraine will have high tech gear and Russia is going to have major problems. They have two weeks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
French person here.

OK, cool down everyone. The sad truth is that the West will, and HAS TO, let Ukraine do the actual fighting (with significant sanctions and weaponry distribution), otherwise we risk an escalation into WWIII and possible nuclear use.

This was always the plan. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and you can argue forever about whether it was blocked to preserve the tenuous east-west geopolitical truce, but the fact is, it's not in NATO and does not have to be protected with the full military might of western countries.

Social media images of Ukrainian suffering will make us weep but will not change the plan.

However, I can promise you that sanctions are here to stay. These are the harshest ever implemented on Russia. The more genocide there is, the longer and more severe they will be, until the entire Russian economy collapses and Putin is forced out. That also will lead to immense suffering on the part of the Russian population.

There is no good option.

NATO will not risk it's populations safety and wellbeing by escalating this conflict beyond sanctions and arms/materials provision. It is already gearing up for a refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainians.


BUT - Putin has NO options AT ALL. He has cornered himself like a rat. He can all of Ukraine. But he will lose, because retribution will strangle his country's economy into oblivion. At some point his assets, instead of being frozen, may be seized outright depending on Hague tribunal decisions.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Well said. Thank you!

But is the end of Putin something that will happen without Putin taking us all down with him? That’s my worry. He’s legitimately a psychopath, his ego is enormous, and he is intent on winning at every single chance.

If NATO fears a Putin over-reaction in the nuclear department, they will tend towards de-escalation. There is nothing else to do, we cannot risk the entire European continent, and possibly, strategic US centers. We'll see what Putin does. But until today, NATO has not crossed the bounds of the alliance, has not send boots on the ground, has not threatened war on Russian soil, has not entertained seriously letting Ukraine into NATO, in short has done nothing at all to warrant Putin's war-mongering. This is strictly a Putin-inflicted debacle on Putin himself, his long-oppressed citizens, and these poor Ukrainians.

Nobody can explain WHY Putin is doing this. Some have claimed to observe cognitive decline such that his already long-existing paranoia has developed into a full-blown separation from reality, but others argue that he simply miscalculated Western unity, or is counting on the West's willingness to barter Ukraine for Russian energy. Who knows. Only time will tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
French person here.

OK, cool down everyone. The sad truth is that the West will, and HAS TO, let Ukraine do the actual fighting (with significant sanctions and weaponry distribution), otherwise we risk an escalation into WWIII and possible nuclear use.

This was always the plan. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and you can argue forever about whether it was blocked to preserve the tenuous east-west geopolitical truce, but the fact is, it's not in NATO and does not have to be protected with the full military might of western countries.

Social media images of Ukrainian suffering will make us weep but will not change the plan.

However, I can promise you that sanctions are here to stay. These are the harshest ever implemented on Russia. The more genocide there is, the longer and more severe they will be, until the entire Russian economy collapses and Putin is forced out. That also will lead to immense suffering on the part of the Russian population.

There is no good option.

NATO will not risk it's populations safety and wellbeing by escalating this conflict beyond sanctions and arms/materials provision. It is already gearing up for a refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainians.


BUT - Putin has NO options AT ALL. He has cornered himself like a rat. He can all of Ukraine. But he will lose, because retribution will strangle his country's economy into oblivion. At some point his assets, instead of being frozen, may be seized outright depending on Hague tribunal decisions.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Well said. Thank you!

Don’t forget to cast your gaze to China to watch what they’re doing.

China doesn't want this buck passed to them. Their entire Pacific hegemony plan and their growing ownership of African resources depends on a fractured West. They are not happy to see NATO and wealthy nations around the world unite to rescue a satellite claimed in the name of history by a larger nation, since that is exactly what they want to do to Taiwan and other islands.

Significantly, you'll note that Japan hastened to rebuke Russia and join the sanctions effort, to send a strong message to China. Japan has no geographic ties to Ukraine. They see Ukraine as a European Taiwan, and as those Japanese islands that China claims for itself.

So China will largely sit this one out, I think. It might delay its plans to annex Taiwan for a few years, unless there is uncontrolled escalation between Russia and NATO and a third world war is triggered, in which case China will seize the opportunity to swallow all kinds of islands while we are distracted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why would he make this into a public Twitter feud?

See above - putting pressure on the Administration/NSC to get out of their own way.

Please Biden is president not trump. Trump would share info with the Russians. Biden and Nato are all in and are sharing intelligence with Ukraine. Ukraine wants the Russians to enter the cities. Fighting in urban areas negates the advantages of armor, heavy artillery, or air support. The Russians do not have enough troops to hold the country. They would need around 800k. If the Ukraine fortifies one city with 25k defenders the Russian would need 75-100k to take the city. That is only if the Russians could cut the city off from resupply. In a week or two the Ukraine will have high tech gear and Russia is going to have major problems. They have two weeks.

This has nothing to do with Trump - my previous post:

I was not sure what Sasse was getting at, but this makes sense with the Lake tweet alongside it. I saw one of the IC folks I follow on Twitter reference a former colleague telling him happenings at the current NSC were reminiscent of the Obama NSC, which is bad. Obama's NSC was legendary for its analysis paralysis. Endless meetings without decisions hinging on noodling details like this.

I agree with Lake, and further, it's our intelligence. We can share it with whoever we want. If a dictator like Putin is going to attack us, he's not going to use a pretext like intel sharing. Or if we are that afraid (I hope not) there are a couple of easy workarounds using other partners.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
French person here.

OK, cool down everyone. The sad truth is that the West will, and HAS TO, let Ukraine do the actual fighting (with significant sanctions and weaponry distribution), otherwise we risk an escalation into WWIII and possible nuclear use.

This was always the plan. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and you can argue forever about whether it was blocked to preserve the tenuous east-west geopolitical truce, but the fact is, it's not in NATO and does not have to be protected with the full military might of western countries.

Social media images of Ukrainian suffering will make us weep but will not change the plan.

However, I can promise you that sanctions are here to stay. These are the harshest ever implemented on Russia. The more genocide there is, the longer and more severe they will be, until the entire Russian economy collapses and Putin is forced out. That also will lead to immense suffering on the part of the Russian population.

There is no good option.

NATO will not risk it's populations safety and wellbeing by escalating this conflict beyond sanctions and arms/materials provision. It is already gearing up for a refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainians.


BUT - Putin has NO options AT ALL. He has cornered himself like a rat. He can all of Ukraine. But he will lose, because retribution will strangle his country's economy into oblivion. At some point his assets, instead of being frozen, may be seized outright depending on Hague tribunal decisions.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Well said. Thank you!

But is the end of Putin something that will happen without Putin taking us all down with him? That’s my worry. He’s legitimately a psychopath, his ego is enormous, and he is intent on winning at every single chance.

If NATO fears a Putin over-reaction in the nuclear department, they will tend towards de-escalation. There is nothing else to do, we cannot risk the entire European continent, and possibly, strategic US centers. We'll see what Putin does. But until today, NATO has not crossed the bounds of the alliance, has not send boots on the ground, has not threatened war on Russian soil, has not entertained seriously letting Ukraine into NATO, in short has done nothing at all to warrant Putin's war-mongering. This is strictly a Putin-inflicted debacle on Putin himself, his long-oppressed citizens, and these poor Ukrainians.

Nobody can explain WHY Putin is doing this. Some have claimed to observe cognitive decline such that his already long-existing paranoia has developed into a full-blown separation from reality, but others argue that he simply miscalculated Western unity, or is counting on the West's willingness to barter Ukraine for Russian energy. Who knows. Only time will tell.

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now. I know it's a different time and situation but I keep thinking about Bush and how we were fed one story about Iraq and we all went along with it because Hussein was a bad guy
Something isn't adding up for me

I have one theory related to Saudi Arabia refusal to increase oil production and commitment to it's agreement with Russia is maybe to further cripple Western economies that are largely still in trouble because of the pandemic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
French person here.

OK, cool down everyone. The sad truth is that the West will, and HAS TO, let Ukraine do the actual fighting (with significant sanctions and weaponry distribution), otherwise we risk an escalation into WWIII and possible nuclear use.

This was always the plan. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and you can argue forever about whether it was blocked to preserve the tenuous east-west geopolitical truce, but the fact is, it's not in NATO and does not have to be protected with the full military might of western countries.

Social media images of Ukrainian suffering will make us weep but will not change the plan.

However, I can promise you that sanctions are here to stay. These are the harshest ever implemented on Russia. The more genocide there is, the longer and more severe they will be, until the entire Russian economy collapses and Putin is forced out. That also will lead to immense suffering on the part of the Russian population.

There is no good option.

NATO will not risk it's populations safety and wellbeing by escalating this conflict beyond sanctions and arms/materials provision. It is already gearing up for a refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainians.


BUT - Putin has NO options AT ALL. He has cornered himself like a rat. He can all of Ukraine. But he will lose, because retribution will strangle his country's economy into oblivion. At some point his assets, instead of being frozen, may be seized outright depending on Hague tribunal decisions.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Well said. Thank you!

But is the end of Putin something that will happen without Putin taking us all down with him? That’s my worry. He’s legitimately a psychopath, his ego is enormous, and he is intent on winning at every single chance.

If NATO fears a Putin over-reaction in the nuclear department, they will tend towards de-escalation. There is nothing else to do, we cannot risk the entire European continent, and possibly, strategic US centers. We'll see what Putin does. But until today, NATO has not crossed the bounds of the alliance, has not send boots on the ground, has not threatened war on Russian soil, has not entertained seriously letting Ukraine into NATO, in short has done nothing at all to warrant Putin's war-mongering. This is strictly a Putin-inflicted debacle on Putin himself, his long-oppressed citizens, and these poor Ukrainians.

Nobody can explain WHY Putin is doing this. Some have claimed to observe cognitive decline such that his already long-existing paranoia has developed into a full-blown separation from reality, but others argue that he simply miscalculated Western unity, or is counting on the West's willingness to barter Ukraine for Russian energy. Who knows. Only time will tell.

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now. I know it's a different time and situation but I keep thinking about Bush and how we were fed one story about Iraq and we all went along with it because Hussein was a bad guy
Something isn't adding up for me

I have one theory related to Saudi Arabia refusal to increase oil production and commitment to it's agreement with Russia is maybe to further cripple Western economies that are largely still in trouble because of the pandemic.

No, there is no big lie or pretext for sanctions, Russia was the aggressor. You saw it with your own eyes. There are too many parties involved to create a fake scenario of events here, and one of Biden's key roles has been to keep all NATO countries united and in lockstep. Bush claimed unilaterally that there were WMDs. France's Chirac called his bluff (recall the whole Freedom Fries incident? Chirac was right. It may have been the only thing he is respected for). Many countries were deeply suspicious of the USA's claims.

Saudi Arabia is no friend to the West, but even if it were, its first loyalty will always be to OPEC countries, of which Russia is a member. Just like the western countries' first loyalty are to other NATO countries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No fly zone. NATO. Now. Before Russia declares victory. We’re just peace keeping as they are.

This. 100%.

Wrong. There’s no way American planes will be shooting down Russian jets. That really could start an American Russian war. We could arm Ukraine with stinger missiles so Russian planes will have to fly higher but we’re not starting a shooting war with Russia.

Dp- exactly. We can’t enforce a no fly zone.

That’s true. But the US military knew this was coming. Shouldn’t we have armed them better a while ago?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No fly zone. NATO. Now. Before Russia declares victory. We’re just peace keeping as they are.

This. 100%.

Wrong. There’s no way American planes will be shooting down Russian jets. That really could start an American Russian war. We could arm Ukraine with stinger missiles so Russian planes will have to fly higher but we’re not starting a shooting war with Russia.

Dp- exactly. We can’t enforce a no fly zone.

That’s true. But the US military knew this was coming. Shouldn’t we have armed them better a while ago?

What are you talking about? We’ve been sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine for years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No fly zone. NATO. Now. Before Russia declares victory. We’re just peace keeping as they are.

This. 100%.

Wrong. There’s no way American planes will be shooting down Russian jets. That really could start an American Russian war. We could arm Ukraine with stinger missiles so Russian planes will have to fly higher but we’re not starting a shooting war with Russia.

Dp- exactly. We can’t enforce a no fly zone.

That’s true. But the US military knew this was coming. Shouldn’t we have armed them better a while ago?

What are you talking about? We’ve been sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine for years

+1 Quite famously in recent years.

[Anonymous]

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now.

Here is a line of reasoning that could potentially have led Putin to invade Ukraine:

1. Ukraine continues to drift towards the West
2. It is plausible that Ukraine might join NATO at some point in the future
3. With each passing year, Ukraine's military is increasing in power
4. Even if Putin could extract an agreement from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, Putin may believe that such an agreement would be worthless: the West can't be trusted, in Putin's view
5. If the West helps Ukraine build its defenses, those defenses might also have offensive capabilities aimed at Russia

Given this information, Putin might conclude that invading Ukraine now is the only option for pushing back on NATO. If Putin waits any longer, and Ukraine grows in military power, Putin's window of opportunity might close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
French person here.

OK, cool down everyone. The sad truth is that the West will, and HAS TO, let Ukraine do the actual fighting (with significant sanctions and weaponry distribution), otherwise we risk an escalation into WWIII and possible nuclear use.

This was always the plan. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and you can argue forever about whether it was blocked to preserve the tenuous east-west geopolitical truce, but the fact is, it's not in NATO and does not have to be protected with the full military might of western countries.

Social media images of Ukrainian suffering will make us weep but will not change the plan.

However, I can promise you that sanctions are here to stay. These are the harshest ever implemented on Russia. The more genocide there is, the longer and more severe they will be, until the entire Russian economy collapses and Putin is forced out. That also will lead to immense suffering on the part of the Russian population.

There is no good option.

NATO will not risk it's populations safety and wellbeing by escalating this conflict beyond sanctions and arms/materials provision. It is already gearing up for a refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainians.


BUT - Putin has NO options AT ALL. He has cornered himself like a rat. He can all of Ukraine. But he will lose, because retribution will strangle his country's economy into oblivion. At some point his assets, instead of being frozen, may be seized outright depending on Hague tribunal decisions.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Well said. Thank you!

But is the end of Putin something that will happen without Putin taking us all down with him? That’s my worry. He’s legitimately a psychopath, his ego is enormous, and he is intent on winning at every single chance.

If NATO fears a Putin over-reaction in the nuclear department, they will tend towards de-escalation. There is nothing else to do, we cannot risk the entire European continent, and possibly, strategic US centers. We'll see what Putin does. But until today, NATO has not crossed the bounds of the alliance, has not send boots on the ground, has not threatened war on Russian soil, has not entertained seriously letting Ukraine into NATO, in short has done nothing at all to warrant Putin's war-mongering. This is strictly a Putin-inflicted debacle on Putin himself, his long-oppressed citizens, and these poor Ukrainians.

Nobody can explain WHY Putin is doing this. Some have claimed to observe cognitive decline such that his already long-existing paranoia has developed into a full-blown separation from reality, but others argue that he simply miscalculated Western unity, or is counting on the West's willingness to barter Ukraine for Russian energy. Who knows. Only time will tell.

And this is what is so worrisome. We are not dealing with a rational actor. And that makes Putin an irrational actor with nuclear weapons.

[Anonymous]

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now. I know it's a different time and situation but I keep thinking about Bush and how we were fed one story about Iraq and we all went along with it because Hussein was a bad guy
Something isn't adding up for me

I have one theory related to Saudi Arabia refusal to increase oil production and commitment to it's agreement with Russia is maybe to further cripple Western economies that are largely still in trouble because of the pandemic.

I don't think Putin is a bumbling idiot, but I do think he miscalculated this time.

And why not? What did the world do in 2014 when he invaded Crimea? Nothing. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then and frankly, I'm not sure Putin really gets that everyone figured out his disinformation scheme and we aren't buying it anymore. I think he really thought he could roll out this insane narrative on Ukraine and everyone would just go along with it. I mean, he had his ambassadors all over the world saying this stuff. It was Baghdad Bob level of cringe.

Remember when Putin told Bush 43 (I think it was him) that he could tell the media to lay off of him and Bush had to explain that's not how it works in the US. I truly believe Putin might not really grasp the media atmosphere in the world because he doesn't use or understand it or because the Trump years and Fox acting as Trump's mouthpiece convinced him that he could do the same thing. Putin, like Trump, lives in a really isolated and artificial world. Neither of them like to receive bad news. You've probably got a Stephen Miller type whispering in Putin's ear.

The other side of the equation is that West has united and rallied, surprising even the most optimistic pundit types. And Ukraine is doing better at defending itself than anticipated.

[Anonymous]

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now. I know it's a different time and situation but I keep thinking about Bush and how we were fed one story about Iraq and we all went along with it because Hussein was a bad guy
Something isn't adding up for me

I have one theory related to Saudi Arabia refusal to increase oil production and commitment to it's agreement with Russia is maybe to further cripple Western economies that are largely still in trouble because of the pandemic.

I don't think Putin is a bumbling idiot, but I do think he miscalculated this time.

And why not? What did the world do in 2014 when he invaded Crimea? Nothing. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then and frankly, I'm not sure Putin really gets that everyone figured out his disinformation scheme and we aren't buying it anymore. I think he really thought he could roll out this insane narrative on Ukraine and everyone would just go along with it. I mean, he had his ambassadors all over the world saying this stuff. It was Baghdad Bob level of cringe.

Remember when Putin told Bush 43 (I think it was him) that he could tell the media to lay off of him and Bush had to explain that's not how it works in the US. I truly believe Putin might not really grasp the media atmosphere in the world because he doesn't use or understand it or because the Trump years and Fox acting as Trump's mouthpiece convinced him that he could do the same thing. Putin, like Trump, lives in a really isolated and artificial world. Neither of them like to receive bad news. You've probably got a Stephen Miller type whispering in Putin's ear.

The other side of the equation is that West has united and rallied, surprising even the most optimistic pundit types. And Ukraine is doing better at defending itself than anticipated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now.

Here is a line of reasoning that could potentially have led Putin to invade Ukraine:

1. Ukraine continues to drift towards the West
2. It is plausible that Ukraine might join NATO at some point in the future
3. With each passing year, Ukraine's military is increasing in power
4. Even if Putin could extract an agreement from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, Putin may believe that such an agreement would be worthless: the West can't be trusted, in Putin's view
5. If the West helps Ukraine build its defenses, those defenses might also have offensive capabilities aimed at Russia

Given this information, Putin might conclude that invading Ukraine now is the only option for pushing back on NATO. If Putin waits any longer, and Ukraine grows in military power, Putin's window of opportunity might close.

The flaw in your argument is that if the Ukraine is part of Russia, Putin will have NATO countries on his doorstep. A neutral Ukraine was a better buffer. However, I am sure Putin doesn't want NATO to expand regardless of which country, Ukraine, Finland, etc. One way to ensure that doesn't happen is to take the countries by force.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Democratic Socialists of America calls on the U.S. to withdraw from NATO.

https://twitter.com/sukatra/status/1497811024359137281/photo/1

That’s not what they said. That was someone replying to them.

They did say it. He was just highlighting their statement since they omitted that portion from their tweets.