US has no good options in Ukraine

[Anonymous]

I do think Putin has badly miscalculated here. I'm sure he thought he'd already be in Kyiv right now with Zelensky's corpse swinging from a pole, and that the sanctions would not be as quick, as universal, or as harsh as they have been. He is surrounded by yes-men. Even if they do take Kyiv, I don't think they have the manpower or the resources to hold it or seriously subjugate Ukraine for very long, and the damage he has done to the Russian economy will last far beyond this war.

He's backed himself into a corner here. He's not going to be able to back down because he can't stand to lose face or look weak. The sanctions aren't going away and will probably get even worse. He hasn't groomed any successor by design, so he can't step down gracefully. At some point the oligarchs around him are going to get fed up with this stunt of absolutely ruining Russia's economy for little to no return and total loss of international legitimacy. No matter what happens in Ukraine. I feel like he's going to come to the same end as Nicholas II at some point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now.

Here is a line of reasoning that could potentially have led Putin to invade Ukraine:

1. Ukraine continues to drift towards the West
2. It is plausible that Ukraine might join NATO at some point in the future
3. With each passing year, Ukraine's military is increasing in power
4. Even if Putin could extract an agreement from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, Putin may believe that such an agreement would be worthless: the West can't be trusted, in Putin's view
5. If the West helps Ukraine build its defenses, those defenses might also have offensive capabilities aimed at Russia

Given this information, Putin might conclude that invading Ukraine now is the only option for pushing back on NATO. If Putin waits any longer, and Ukraine grows in military power, Putin's window of opportunity might close.

The flaw in your argument is that if the Ukraine is part of Russia, Putin will have NATO countries on his doorstep. A neutral Ukraine was a better buffer. However, I am sure Putin doesn't want NATO to expand regardless of which country, Ukraine, Finland, etc. One way to ensure that doesn't happen is to take the countries by force.

And, as it turns out, a good way to ensure that does happen is to try to take a country by force. He has united Europe and even united Japan and other Pacific countries (including Taiwan) against possible aggression from China.

Putin has single-handedly rewritten the world order in 4 days. Pretty impressive, really.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've seen some anti-racist hot takes from very privileged American people of color about the white privilege of Ukrainian refugees. If they were Palestinian or African, nobody would care.

Yes, racism has resulted in structural inequality. But read the room. People want to rally around a victim and help them stand up to an aggressor. That's a good thing.

I appreciate the honesty of Bulgarians, Poland, and other neighboring elected officials who have explicitly stated why Ukrainian refugees are better than the normal refugee inflow.

I think poc people are frustrated by so called Ally’s who pretend to be color blind.

The social justice term "allies" seems a little silly when we're watching a situation where actual allies are are providing weapons and bankrupting enemies who are trying to kill people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now.

Here is a line of reasoning that could potentially have led Putin to invade Ukraine:

1. Ukraine continues to drift towards the West
2. It is plausible that Ukraine might join NATO at some point in the future
3. With each passing year, Ukraine's military is increasing in power
4. Even if Putin could extract an agreement from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, Putin may believe that such an agreement would be worthless: the West can't be trusted, in Putin's view
5. If the West helps Ukraine build its defenses, those defenses might also have offensive capabilities aimed at Russia

Given this information, Putin might conclude that invading Ukraine now is the only option for pushing back on NATO. If Putin waits any longer, and Ukraine grows in military power, Putin's window of opportunity might close.

The flaw in your argument is that if the Ukraine is part of Russia, Putin will have NATO countries on his doorstep. A neutral Ukraine was a better buffer. However, I am sure Putin doesn't want NATO to expand regardless of which country, Ukraine, Finland, etc. One way to ensure that doesn't happen is to take the countries by force.

Or, he can choose option B, which is not to be so much of a threat in the first place that creates a need for NATO.

[Anonymous]

Putin is no idiot. If he wanted Ukraine by force, he would have done so by now. This is a shit test of the West of what are you going to do about it?

The only reaction is to show him who we are and what we are prepared to do with all our collective might.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do think Putin has badly miscalculated here. I'm sure he thought he'd already be in Kyiv right now with Zelensky's corpse swinging from a pole, and that the sanctions would not be as quick, as universal, or as harsh as they have been. He is surrounded by yes-men. Even if they do take Kyiv, I don't think they have the manpower or the resources to hold it or seriously subjugate Ukraine for very long, and the damage he has done to the Russian economy will last far beyond this war.

He's backed himself into a corner here. He's not going to be able to back down because he can't stand to lose face or look weak. The sanctions aren't going away and will probably get even worse. He hasn't groomed any successor by design, so he can't step down gracefully. At some point the oligarchs around him are going to get fed up with this stunt of absolutely ruining Russia's economy for little to no return and total loss of international legitimacy. No matter what happens in Ukraine. I feel like he's going to come to the same end as Nicholas II at some point.

He may be allowed to go into exile, but I predict his ouster as well.

And at this point, can you imagine the international reaction if he harms one hair on Zelensky's head? The world will lose its $h!t.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin is no idiot. If he wanted Ukraine by force, he would have done so by now. This is a shit test of the West of what are you going to do about it?

The only reaction is to show him who we are and what we are prepared to do with all our collective might.

Have you been asleep the past 4 days? Yes, he is an idiot. When he tells you who he is, believe him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin is no idiot. If he wanted Ukraine by force, he would have done so by now. This is a shit test of the West of what are you going to do about it?

The only reaction is to show him who we are and what we are prepared to do with all our collective might.

Have you been asleep the past 4 days? Yes, he is an idiot. When he tells you who he is, believe him.

Yep - this war shows that Putin is deranged. No question.

[Anonymous]

I think you ought to study his tactics. Looking like an idiot while puppeteering is exactly Russia.

Make no mistake, this is a test of Western alliances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin has become a pariah. This is great news. Perhaps one of his own people will decide to do to him what he does does his adversaries. If they can get close enough to him. News reports are that he will not let anyone come near him lately.

We have elections in Hungary on April 3rd. The incumbent Victor Orban wants to stay in power; I don't think he had a choice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This is what is puzzling to me. As comforting as it is to believe Putin is just some bumbling idiot who miscalculated something just doesn't add up here and no I don't just buy the explanation he's power mad and wants to revive the USSR. There's more going on than we're being told now.

Here is a line of reasoning that could potentially have led Putin to invade Ukraine:

1. Ukraine continues to drift towards the West
2. It is plausible that Ukraine might join NATO at some point in the future
3. With each passing year, Ukraine's military is increasing in power
4. Even if Putin could extract an agreement from the West that Ukraine will never join NATO, Putin may believe that such an agreement would be worthless: the West can't be trusted, in Putin's view
5. If the West helps Ukraine build its defenses, those defenses might also have offensive capabilities aimed at Russia

Given this information, Putin might conclude that invading Ukraine now is the only option for pushing back on NATO. If Putin waits any longer, and Ukraine grows in military power, Putin's window of opportunity might close.

The flaw in your argument is that if the Ukraine is part of Russia, Putin will have NATO countries on his doorstep. A neutral Ukraine was a better buffer. However, I am sure Putin doesn't want NATO to expand regardless of which country, Ukraine, Finland, etc. One way to ensure that doesn't happen is to take the countries by force.

Or, he can choose option B, which is not to be so much of a threat in the first place that creates a need for NATO.

Yeah, but which came first, the chicken or the egg? Was it Putin's actions that created the need to expand NATO, or was it the push for NATO expansion that amplified Russia's fears of the West?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No fly zone. NATO. Now. Before Russia declares victory. We’re just peace keeping as they are.

This. 100%.

Wrong. There’s no way American planes will be shooting down Russian jets. That really could start an American Russian war. We could arm Ukraine with stinger missiles so Russian planes will have to fly higher but we’re not starting a shooting war with Russia.

Dp- exactly. We can’t enforce a no fly zone.

That’s true. But the US military knew this was coming. Shouldn’t we have armed them better a while ago?

What are you talking about? We’ve been sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine for years

+1 Quite famously in recent years.

“But first I need to ask for a favor”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No fly zone. NATO. Now. Before Russia declares victory. We’re just peace keeping as they are.

This. 100%.

Wrong. There’s no way American planes will be shooting down Russian jets. That really could start an American Russian war. We could arm Ukraine with stinger missiles so Russian planes will have to fly higher but we’re not starting a shooting war with Russia.

Dp- exactly. We can’t enforce a no fly zone.

That’s true. But the US military knew this was coming. Shouldn’t we have armed them better a while ago?

What are you talking about? We’ve been sending weapons and military equipment to Ukraine for years

+1 Quite famously in recent years.

This argument is so tired and made by people who have nothing else to offer. Explain to me how what Trump
did resulted in where we are today. Ukraine got more lethal weapons under Trump than Obama. What did Obama do to bring peace to the region?

“But first I need to ask for a favor”.

Obama sent Ukraine MREs and blankets.
Trump sent lethal weapons.

[Anonymous]

I am worried he’ll now try to assassinante Zelenskiy and then use the same pretext like in 2014, that “there is no president / vacuum / president / there is no elected president” to try to impose a rule.

Or nuclear weapons. Belarus just renounced its non proliferation agreement. He may try to get Belarus to fire nuclear on Ukraine (in usual putin whataboutism “the US did it in 1945 to end WW2” so he could do it in 2022 to end “Ukrainian nazis” in 2022.

Unfortunately, the propaganda machine has been so strong the past 10 years at least (starting with the 2004 Orange Revolution and then kicking into high gear from 2013 maidan), that there are generations of Russians who really believe this narrative - Ukraine is not a country, Ukraine is US marionette, the presidents are all results of US intervention and technology, Ukrainians are fascists and nazis. At this point, he believe it fully himself. Nato is pretext, it’s this craziness against Ukraine that is the core.

Here is an article that was due to appear today or yesterday but was pulled it seems. The rhetoric is chilling:

[Anonymous]

Prediction. Putin dead by the end of the week by Russian hands. An ice pick my guess. His days are numbered. He very much over calculated his appeal to the Russian people and his power. And he definitely didn’t get that the world isn’t afraid of him. We’d rather die fighting early than see WW3.