FCPS Skyview Boundary Revised Scenario 1 / 2

[Anonymous]

Ask respectfully why the Bull Run split feeder was not resolved to send kids over to Westfield and reduce the crowding at CVHS? Why did they send just one particular neighborhood?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Just used Folkstone/West Ox as a starting point. Almost 10 miles to Oakton and less than 3 to Carson.
Using Crossfield as the starting point is bogus. No one going to Carson lives that far.

And, the time--using express lanes is 15 minutes.
Eight minutes to Carson.

And, most of the population lives closer to Carson than that intersection.

He must be getting pushback from some Crossfield people now.

This tells me that Meren is putting pressure on him now. She's had a year to do that.

Really - what MS do you think those students across from Crossfield attend? And why do you think that you know better than their actual experience?
From my home near Crossfield my child's Carson bus ride was always significantly longer than their current ride to Oakton.

I have a feeling that many of the complainers about crossfield are entirely unfamiliar with the area or only know about the Franklin farm side.

Very familiar with the area. Drive West Ox and Reston Parkway regularly. Drive Folkstone from time to time.

So, the vast majority of the Crossfield Oakton kids live between Fairfax County Parkway and West Ox Rd.

So, because a handful of the Crossfield families claim they are closer to Oakton (they are not, you can verify that by driving it or even looking at a map) they claim they should go to Oakton.

All are closer to Carson than to Oakton. But, you know that. Time wise and mileage.

If you live close to Crossfield, your kids should be going to South Lakes along with Fox Mill Woods.

I have continuously posted that in my neighborhood bus rides to oakton are shorter than crossfield for months on these threads.McDaniel confirmed that.

There's far more than a handful of people zoned to crossfield. Less than franklin farm to be sure.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Just used Folkstone/West Ox as a starting point. Almost 10 miles to Oakton and less than 3 to Carson.
Using Crossfield as the starting point is bogus. No one going to Carson lives that far.

And, the time--using express lanes is 15 minutes.
Eight minutes to Carson.

And, most of the population lives closer to Carson than that intersection.

He must be getting pushback from some Crossfield people now.

This tells me that Meren is putting pressure on him now. She's had a year to do that.

You realize buses follow a route... They go to different neighborhoods both towards and away from the assigned school and even backtrack.

Folkstone is slightly more than 6 miles from Oakton and 4 from Carson. Where are you getting your distances from?

Google maps right now has over 7 miles to Oakton a d 3.9 to Carson. 16 vs 12 min in car, not bus from the intersection of Folkstone and Fox Mill. That is just about the closest Crossfield spot to Oakton.. most of Crossfield is much, much closer to Carson. But you know that.

Next, you and McDaniel might consider distance to South Lakes.

South Lakes needs the extra capacity for future growth. Let’s make arguments based on facts and not emotion.

Isn't there more housing going up in Oakton then South Lakes area?

No.
https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/demographics/sites/demographics/files/Assets/demographicreports/fullrpt.pdf

You will have to be more specific. I couldn't find anything that told what was being built in the next few years. It is all based on projections, not actual.
I'd like to see something specific with actual builders and specific places.

Maybe it was in that packet, but I sure couldn't find it.

Right now, there is major construction near South Lakes. I am in Reston regularly. Looks to me like that part across from Plaza America is one of them. Of course, you could purchase that 3 Million dollar penthouse at the Marriott on Wiele.
Lots of discussion about developing the golf course area off Sunrise Valley, but that is a long, long way from happening , if ever.

Meanwhile, South Lakes will be ready when Oakton gets way overcrowded.

[Anonymous]

Will Seema Dixit be at the meeting or is she in hiding from her western Centreville constituents.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:So the Westfield parents were reasonable, happy to take any kids zoned into their school, and followed the procedures they were supposed to: emailing the SB and commenting on the boundary tool. And their school is being treated like trash.

So the message to the rest of FCPS families for any future boundary changes is don't follow the given procedures, harass and hound Reid and the SB members, make sure a lobbyist and someone who works at Gatehouse lives in your neighborhood, and lie about being able to hear a school band. Whatever you do, don't be polite and reasonable.

I think Westfield is in a weird position because:

1) The schools moving out of Westfield are higher FARMs schools, so their departure doesn't really impact the AP program since most of the kids leaving probably are not in those classes
2) Floris makes sense in terms of location and reunifying a split feeder school
3) It is weird to be vocal about "We want these ES to be moved because we are losing a lot of kids and we need those seats backfilled"
4) Most people don't want to anger others by demanding that their kids are moved to your school, regardless of how proud you are of the school.

It is a perfect storm made worse by the fact that Dixit lives in a neighborhood that should move and she doesn't want to so there is no chance that is going to happen.

This isn't accurate. Its a mix of SES kids moving out.

How many Floris kids vs how many FARMs kids?

McNair is 44% FARMs (about 457 students)
Coates is 54% FARMs (about 882 students)
Floris is 13% FARMs (about 624 Students)

Westfield is losing a lot of poverty with the schools that are moving out. Probably far more then they are gaining with the few kids moving to the school. Roughly 2/3 of the kids moving out are FARMs, that is huge.

Huh?

I did an analysis just looking at the size of the current 6th grade classes at Coates, Floris, and McNair Upper, based on the overall FARMS rates reported in 2024-25. It suggests that on a combined basis Coates, Floris, and McNair Upper would have a FARMS rate of about 32.8%, nowhere near 2/3 of the kids.

In 2024-25, Westfield's FARMS rate was 31.3%, so the kids moving out are probably slightly higher FARMS than Westfield. On the other hand, the kids moving into Westfield from Chantilly and Centreville may be substantially higher FARMS, since those areas are understood to be some of the higher FARMS neighborhoods at Brookfield (58.0% overall FARMS in 2024-25), Bull Run (43.1% overall FARMS in 2024-25), and Cub Run (22.9% overall FARMS in 2024-25).

So the Westfield parents are right to think that the Skyview-related changes will leave their school substantially smaller, and likely with a higher FARMS rate to boot. That's the double whammy for them.

You cannot include Floris in that combination because most of the FARMS kids from Floris are currently at Westfield if housing has anything to do with it. While there are some affluent kids assigned to Floris, those assigned to South Lakes are almost all affluent.

But Floris has an almost negligible amount of FARMs kids.

Yes, but Floris also sends kids to South Lakes. I would guess that most of the 10% FARMS is currently at Westfield along with some more affluent kids. I doubt Westfield will hit anywhere near 40% if the two really poor neighborhoods stayed put at Centreville and Chantilly.

So taking that Floris is 13% FARMs (about 624 Students total, 81 FARMS). Roughly 20% of the 624 (125) go to SLHS currently, and are probably 99% non-FARMS. That leaves 500 Floris kids coming out of Westfield, of which 81 are FARMS. So the Floris FARMS rate that's coming out of WESTFIELD is more like 16% vs. 13%.

So all in all no matter how you slice it Floris is a low-FARMS school getting pulled out of Westfield.

Yup.

I'm a foreigner, but I've noticed that the math proficiency level on this board is surprisingly low.

People here are good at making reasonable arguments and snarky comments, but not so much at actual math work.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:The split feeder at Franklin Middle School is going to be mostly Oakton now (Crossfield, Waples Mill, most of Navy) while only Lees Corner and the small western portion of Navy will attend Chantilly. (Assuming Brookfield will be at Rocky Run and Oak Hill will be at Carson.)

Wouldn't it make sense for Navy and Lees Corner students to have their AAP center at Rocky Run instead of Rachel Carson? Is that a possibility in FCPS to have your middle school feed to different centers depending on the high school?

I think that with phasing out AAP centers (i.e. putting them in all middle schools), that they are unlikely to shift any current boundaries. But, your suggestion does make sense.

I wonder if FCPS might decide to go ahead and make an AAP center at Franklin sooner rather than later.

Franklin is scheduled to undergo renovation around 2031. I think they will wait until then.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:The split feeder at Franklin Middle School is going to be mostly Oakton now (Crossfield, Waples Mill, most of Navy) while only Lees Corner and the small western portion of Navy will attend Chantilly. (Assuming Brookfield will be at Rocky Run and Oak Hill will be at Carson.)

Wouldn't it make sense for Navy and Lees Corner students to have their AAP center at Rocky Run instead of Rachel Carson? Is that a possibility in FCPS to have your middle school feed to different centers depending on the high school?

I think that with phasing out AAP centers (i.e. putting them in all middle schools), that they are unlikely to shift any current boundaries. But, your suggestion does make sense.

I wonder if FCPS might decide to go ahead and make an AAP center at Franklin sooner rather than later.

Franklin is scheduled to undergo renovation around 2031. I think they will wait until then.

I think it will depend on numbers.

[Anonymous]

I'm working, someone please take notes and report back!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It was short sighted of the RIO people, because once Oakton is overcrowded, they are the first ones to go, and its going to be to South Lakes.

Nope, the shift will be either Navy or Waples to Fairfax.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm working, someone please take notes and report back!

People voted "Proximity" as the most important criteria.

I expected many Westfield people would show up to support their school.

Instead, a lot of Crossfield parents showed up in support of the final scenario. And many Walney Village and nearby communities who want to be in Chantilly and AVOID Westfield.

Not a single person said anything about Westfield getting gutted out.

This is sad.

[Anonymous]

Westfield was not at the meeting? That surprises me.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:If they had done this properly and stuck to objective standards, this could have been settled months ago. And, with a lot less angst.

In the past, SB members were always non-committal to neighborhoods, while at least pretending to listen. I never recall an earlier superintendent making promises or even getting involved. Staff was involved, but we never saw the superintendents.

It was mostly SB members doing the wheeling and dealing, but they were careful not to make promises.

Reid promised Walney Oaks. Somehow, they were taken totally out of the equation. And, those final scenarios did not include most of Crossfield.

I don't see them changing it now, but the School Board could if they wanted to do so. I don't think they will.

I still wonder if Kyle McDaniel and Melanie Meren will join together at the last minute to strike some sort of deal with everyone else to swap Crossfield and Fox Mill. They both seem pretty adamant about putting Crossfield at Skyview and keeping Fox Mill out.

Why would they do this when it would piss off so many people?

Does a better job of balancing the enrollments at Oakton and South Lakes.

Gets rid of some of the longest commutes to a high school in FCPS.

Does not start to recreate the conditions that led a prior School Board to move kids into South Lakes in 2008.

Relieves overcrowding at Oakton at a time when substantial residential growth is expected closer to OHS.

Keeps families already mostly at an AP school at an AP school.

The path of least resistance is to move Fox Mill but objectively moving Crossfield to Skyview makes more sense. But we have a School Board and superintendent who regularly cater to the loudest voices with the most money.

That ship has sailed. Meren might try, but she is way too late to the party.

Looking at this objectively, that would have been the correct call.

I was involved in boundary studies in the past--that is why I follow this thread. So many mistakes made here:

In the past, politics were involved, but it was usually one neighborhood's argument against another. It was not just which neighborhood had more power. (Except, of course, South Lakes boundary study with Strauss refused to pony up any of her constituents while totally supporting Stu and Kathy's game.)

This has dragged out way too long. The Comprehensive Boundary study was underway when this started. When Skyview was purchased, common sense would have said that the Comp. Boundary should be delayed until Skyview was set. Skyview easily could have been set right away.

RIO stepped in VERY early in this process. Seems to me that they had a "heads up!"

As I recall, and someone on here may know, I think I read about Reid listening to Walney Oaks very early in this process. I don't know when or where the meeting occurred. But, someone needs to give a logical answer to how this happened. Why that one pocket? Doesn't make sense.

Honestly, Westfield could have come out of this very well balanced. Someone really dropped the ball here looking out for thier schools. The initials of that someone are S.D.

It has been said repeatedly that RIO has a member that works at Gatehouse and political connections. They had the maps before everyone else, including the Lees Corner map that ended up never being released.

It keeps being repeated, but it was never true!

Oh look an RIO mommy denying that one of their own works at Gatehouse!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just used Folkstone/West Ox as a starting point. Almost 10 miles to Oakton and less than 3 to Carson.
Using Crossfield as the starting point is bogus. No one going to Carson lives that far.

And, the time--using express lanes is 15 minutes.
Eight minutes to Carson.

And, most of the population lives closer to Carson than that intersection.

He must be getting pushback from some Crossfield people now.

This tells me that Meren is putting pressure on him now. She's had a year to do that.

Really - what MS do you think those students across from Crossfield attend? And why do you think that you know better than their actual experience?
From my home near Crossfield my child's Carson bus ride was always significantly longer than their current ride to Oakton.

I truly love how the RIO mommy shows up AFTER the decision has been made. Where have you been this whole time, sweetie?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Good evening:

Thank you for contacting me regarding the ongoing Skyview High School boundary review process, specifically the impact to Crossfield Elementary School.

Since the outset of this conversation last fall, I raised the transportation and capacity challenges associated with Crossfield ES remaining at Oakton HS. As I have stated several times, it's not the fault of the western communities that the boundary lines are such that kids have to ride a school bus forty-five minutes to an hour one way to get to their base school; Oakton HS in this case. Additionally, I am concerned about the housing development approved in the central Oakton corridor that will potentially exacerbate the capacity challenges at Oakton HS. Today, Oakton HS is at 103% capacity with around 2,000 housing units approved and awaiting construction.

Over the last few months, I have worked with transportation and facilities staff to analyze these issues in depth to help me determine whether Crossfield ES should remain at Oakton HS, or be sent to Skyview HS. Thanks to our very capable transportation staff and the analysis they provided me, the average bussing times are:

Crossfield ES to Oakton HS: 45 minutes
Crossfield ES to Carson MS: 47 minutes

Although there are no times available for a hypothetical route from Crossfield ES to Skyview HS, Carson MS is next door and provides a good benchmark for the data. This is to say, that sending Crossfield ES to Skyview HS will not result in any measurable transportation efficiencies.

In that time, another key detail has surfaced which also impacts my decision making process: Skyview HS does not have the capacity available to absorb both Crossfield ES and Fox Mill ES. Based on the feedback from the Fox Mill ES community, I believe Fox Mill ES should be sent to Skyview HS. It is also worth noting that within the South Lakes HS pyramid, there are over 7,000 housing units proposed or approved which would yield significantly more students into South Lakes HS than the housing units proposed or approved for Oakton HS.

The final scenario generated by the Superintendent and her staff indicates that Crossfield ES be sent to Franklin MS and remain at Oakton HS. Based on the available transportation and capacity data, as well as the community feedback, my expectation is that Crossfield ES remain at Oakton HS, while also being aligned to Franklin MS.

Crossfield to Carson takes 47 minutes???? Did they bike it??

No that's what it takes for my neighborhood which is 45 min, but as i said it's 35 to oakton.

The conversation here always focused on Franklin Farm and not neighborhoods closest to Crossfield which are right next to non Navy Island neighborhoods and across from neighborhoods zoned to Madison.

NO one in Crossfield area is closer to Oakton in milieage or time than to Skyview. Most of them are less than 10 minutes most from Skyview.

That’s not the conclusion FCPS’ transport team reached based on data.

Just because it was ostensibly "based on data" doesn't guarantee the analysis and/or conclusions are correct. People (esp. these unsophisticated SB members and FCPS staff) conduct faulty analysis all the time. And that bus data is clearly inaccurate.

I question less the accuracy of the data and more whether it’s an apt comparison. Middle school is two grades while high school is four. That means there’s a denser population of students to fill a bus more quickly (yes, many high schoolers can drive, but how many formally opt out of bus services for calculating routes?) Second, there are the AAP routes for Navy and Waples Mill that are commingled with Crossfield routes. The Waples Mill buses would wildly inflate the average Crossfield bus times. They should be running comprehensive bus routes for the various scenarios, but nobody seems to ever want to use the software that the transportation team invested in.

Yes, AND, Oakton buses also pickup Crossfield, Navy, & Waples students on a single route. My child still arrives at Oakton in less time than they even did at Carson.

Shut up Crossfield mom. Give it a rest, you won. Go celebrate with an Owala full of wine, sweetheart.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just used Folkstone/West Ox as a starting point. Almost 10 miles to Oakton and less than 3 to Carson.
Using Crossfield as the starting point is bogus. No one going to Carson lives that far.

And, the time--using express lanes is 15 minutes.
Eight minutes to Carson.

And, most of the population lives closer to Carson than that intersection.

He must be getting pushback from some Crossfield people now.

This tells me that Meren is putting pressure on him now. She's had a year to do that.

Really - what MS do you think those students across from Crossfield attend? And why do you think that you know better than their actual experience?
From my home near Crossfield my child's Carson bus ride was always significantly longer than their current ride to Oakton.

I truly love how the RIO mommy shows up AFTER the decision has been made. Where have you been this whole time, sweetie?

And complains becausse since HER house is closer to Oakton (it is not closer to Oakton than Carson but is closer than the vast majority of Crossfield) that ALL should be at Oakton. Actually, her area of Crossfield should be at South Lakes and the Franklin Farm area should be at Skyview. But, that ship has sailed until Oakton gets overcrowded.