Congratulations to David Blair!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lol, this is going to come down to a recount and take even longer 😂😂😂

That’s what I think!

[Anonymous]

If there’s a recount, will they be recounting ALL the ballots, including the tens of thousands of mail ins?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If there’s a recount, will they be recounting ALL the ballots, including the tens of thousands of mail ins?

Yup. Obviously.

[Anonymous]

Just declare Blair the winner already

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If there’s a recount, will they be recounting ALL the ballots, including the tens of thousands of mail ins?

Yup. Obviously.

ARGH! So will they finish by November maybe?

[Anonymous]

This is my assessment as someone associated with one of the campaigns.

What happens at the end is a complete toss up. There are about equal amounts of provisional and mail-in ballots to count.

Provisionals are thought to support Blair, because of R-to-D switches. However, commuted Rs to Ds have been chomping at the bit to vote for Blair, and may likely have re-registered long enough ago to avoid provisional ballots. So we don’t really know. I would say slight Blair advantage.

Mail-ins: slight Elrich advantage, but it depends on which precincts remain. If yesterday’s count rounds out all the downcounty ballots, then Elrich is done. If downcounty ballots remain, especially those sent in earlier since ballots were absolutely NOT counted in order received, then Elrich will gain.

Whoever sees more gains in the ballots considered to be to their advantage will win. A recount is HIGHLY likely, but there is more likely a non-recount Blair win than a non-recount Elrich wins. A scenario where Blair wins outright is that provisionals are actually a whole lot of Rs to Ds, especially if the remaining mail-ins are upcounty precincts and later mailed ballots. I don’t see any scenario in which Elrich takes a strong lead and keeps it.

Assessment: slight, very slight Blair edge, but neither should be sleeping easily. I would breathe easier if I were Elrich, since his options are victory or retirement. If Blair wins, he’s got a lot of work to do, and if he loses, it’s a rough embarrassment to lose by a hair, twice.

[Anonymous]

My drop off balllot for Ehrlich not counted yet per search

[Anonymous]

I am down county

[Anonymous]

Wow. Can I yell at my DH for refusing to register as a Dem and vote in the primary? He would have voted for Blair FWIW but is so stubborn about actually registering for a party (even though he almost always voted dem in the general).

I just don’t understand why more MoCo voters don’t participate in the primary elections when that is the main contest!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My drop off balllot for Ehrlich not counted yet per search

You voted for Bob Ehrlich?

[Anonymous]

Elrich is going to win. It will be Riemer’s fault. I know Riemer has hated Elrich for a long time but there was no need for Riemer to attack Blair as part of his ridiculous spoiler campaign. Some of those attacks landed with enough voters to take votes from Blair, and then there were the Hans fan boys who would have voted for Hans no matter who else was on the ballot but were more ideologically aligned with Blair than Elrich. Oh well. Elrich’s opponents spent more than $7 million to beat him and he’s getting another four years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Elrich is going to win. It will be Riemer’s fault. I know Riemer has hated Elrich for a long time but there was no need for Riemer to attack Blair as part of his ridiculous spoiler campaign. Some of those attacks landed with enough voters to take votes from Blair, and then there were the Hans fan boys who would have voted for Hans no matter who else was on the ballot but were more ideologically aligned with Blair than Elrich. Oh well. Elrich’s opponents spent more than $7 million to beat him and he’s getting another four years.

That’s why I’m rooting for the old man to win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Elrich is going to win. It will be Riemer’s fault. I know Riemer has hated Elrich for a long time but there was no need for Riemer to attack Blair as part of his ridiculous spoiler campaign. Some of those attacks landed with enough voters to take votes from Blair, and then there were the Hans fan boys who would have voted for Hans no matter who else was on the ballot but were more ideologically aligned with Blair than Elrich. Oh well. Elrich’s opponents spent more than $7 million to beat him and he’s getting another four years.

Hans Riemer really comes off looking worse and worse as this thing drags on. Thankfully he’s ruined his future in politics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is my assessment as someone associated with one of the campaigns.

What happens at the end is a complete toss up. There are about equal amounts of provisional and mail-in ballots to count.

Provisionals are thought to support Blair, because of R-to-D switches. However, commuted Rs to Ds have been chomping at the bit to vote for Blair, and may likely have re-registered long enough ago to avoid provisional ballots. So we don’t really know. I would say slight Blair advantage.

Mail-ins: slight Elrich advantage, but it depends on which precincts remain. If yesterday’s count rounds out all the downcounty ballots, then Elrich is done. If downcounty ballots remain, especially those sent in earlier since ballots were absolutely NOT counted in order received, then Elrich will gain.

Whoever sees more gains in the ballots considered to be to their advantage will win. A recount is HIGHLY likely, but there is more likely a non-recount Blair win than a non-recount Elrich wins. A scenario where Blair wins outright is that provisionals are actually a whole lot of Rs to Ds, especially if the remaining mail-ins are upcounty precincts and later mailed ballots. I don’t see any scenario in which Elrich takes a strong lead and keeps it.

Assessment: slight, very slight Blair edge, but neither should be sleeping easily. I would breathe easier if I were Elrich, since his options are victory or retirement. If Blair wins, he’s got a lot of work to do, and if he loses, it’s a rough embarrassment to lose by a hair, twice.

Thanks for this insight.

You seem knowledgeable about this process, so here's a question for you: My mail in ballot (as well as DH & DS) is listed as "received." They were all dropped in the same box on July 17. The Board of Elections website doesn't indicate it has been counted, but we all got "Received" notifications on about July 21. Do you think that means it has been counted? My DH said he thought it isn't "officially counted" until it has been transferred to the state, yet we aren't really sure what teh steps in that process are. Any thoughts?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My drop off balllot for Ehrlich not counted yet per search

You voted for Bob Ehrlich?

Lol no my phone may have wanted me too. Typo