Congratulations to David Blair!!!
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Anonymous
| starting to look bleak for Blair |
Anonymous
Why? There are 10k+ ballots left to be reported. If Blair wins 51% of them he'll be up (though still in recount territory of course). That's not bleak. This race is a toss up at this point. Neither Elrich nor Blair has it in the bag. |
Anonymous
Are you at the canvassing site? Otherwise, we don't know anything until this evening. I project that Blair will win provisional ballots by a margin of 216, based on the percentage spread between the two candidates during early voting and election day (Blair won both by signifcant margins). There are about 7,200 of those. If Blair can close his deficit a bit more this evening, he has a great chance of winning. But if the gap widens substantially this evening, he is in trouble. Either way, expect a recount. |
Anonymous
I agree it is a tossup, and I think if Blair makes any meaningful gains with this evening’s count, then he is likely to win. However, I don’t think provisionals are a given to go in his favor any more than any other batch. Republicans and Independents switching to Democrats to vote for Blair/against Elrich knew to do so the whole time, unlike in 2018, and they likely did so before the deadline and didn’t need to vote provisionally. This time around, provisional ballots are more likely people who requested a mail-in and went to vote in person. These could go either way. |
Anonymous
I pretty much laughed when I saw your prediction of Blair wins provisional by 216. I saw how you came up with that number, and assuming your assumptions are true, it's reasonable. The question is "are the provisional votes going to follow a similar pattern as EV and ED voting?" Who knows. Is the 7200 provisional votes the total D provisional in Mont County? I have only seen "8000 provisional votes in Mont County", so 10% being Republican seems fair. |
Anonymous
| Elrich now leads by 198 |
Anonymous
So Blair is going to win by 18 votes? |
Anonymous
I have a bad feeling Elrich is going to win it at the end. |
Anonymous
I have a good feeling Elrich is going to win it at the end. Four more years! |
Anonymous
People get the government they deserve, and this sucks. He is so awful. MoCo has been in decline. And now it will accelerate. Nobody is paying attention, especially what local media we have. But there will be no hiding it during a second term. |
Anonymous
Yes, he likely will. |
Anonymous
No big deal. Moco is getting to a point of no return - akin to Baltimore. Their young mayor is dynamic and well spoken but 100 years of corruption and union members efforts cannot be undone in either 4 or 8 years. The county likely was finished after end of Leggett’s first term - job growth stalled and there is not much you can do once that death spiral begins….well except hire folks for MCPS, a chicken in every pot style which is what happened. |
Anonymous
You are happy about four more years of decline? |
Anonymous
People only get the government that they deserve —when they have candidates who reflect their priorities to choose from. |
Anonymous
The exorbitant amount of money the county is burning through and wasting on an issue most don’t know about would piss everyone off. |