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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
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You aren’t reading it right. This isn’t a regular poll as in “who are you voting for?” but rather do you find these people likable. |
Anonymous
How do you know? Most public polls show this as a close race and Trump has a really good shot to win the electoral college. |
Anonymous
That’s true but doesn’t dispel the post you’re responding to. |
Anonymous
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"A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states."
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/02/trump-harris-polls-2024-00176981 Arizona (11 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.2 RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.5 Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.5 2020 result: Biden +0.3 Though Trump leads narrowly in two of the three polling averages, the lone high-quality poll conducted after last month’s Democratic convention, from Fox News, showed Harris 1 point ahead of Trump, 50 percent to 49 percent. Georgia (16 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.4 RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.2 Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.1 2020 result: Biden +0.2 Another state where Harris led a post-convention Fox News poll last week, by 2 points, but the averages mostly tip ever so slightly toward Trump. Nevada (6 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.8 RealClearPolitics average: Tie Silver Bulletin average: Harris +0.8 2020 result: Biden +2.4 Democrats’ fortunes have improved in Nevada, where the post-convention polling generally shows Harris slightly ahead – including a recent Fox News poll giving her a 2-point edge. North Carolina (16 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.4 RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.6 Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.3 2020 result: Trump +1.3 The only battleground state where Trump leads in all three averages, but it’s still only by about 1 point — which was also his margin in last week’s Fox News poll. |
Anonymous
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The blue wall states --
Michigan (15 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +2.4 RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.1 Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.9 2020 result: Biden +2.8 Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +1.2 RealClearPolitics average: Harris +0.5 Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.2 2020 result: Biden +1.2 Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +3.2 RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.4 Silver Bulletin average: Harris +3.3 2020 result: Biden +0.6 |
Anonymous
Very helpful. Thank you. So nice to see straightforward information! |
Anonymous
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If Harris gets up to +8 to 10 in a national poll, then she would be hitting Obama type numbers. As it is, she is around +5 with two months to go.
The structural imbalance in the Electoral College and the Senate are really a sight to behold on behalf of the GOP. They have really bamboozled a lot of the agrarian red states into believing our cities are dystopian hellholes filled with lunatics, gays, trans and other horrible people. In fact, our blue areas are responsible for over 70% of the GDP and those areas subsidize the "low tax" red areas significantly. We really need a national re-set. |
Anonymous
' The counter to Trump's RNC bump was that the Democrats staged a clever news coup there. Just days after the RNC, then the Repubicans would be expected to get their bump, they announced that Biden was stepping down and nominating Harris to take his place. Suddenly the news cycle was dominated by the news of the Democratic ticket. There was no honeymoon period for the Republicans to get their bump. Harris spent her next 48 hours reaching out to all of the Biden delegates that had already been elected in the primaries and securing their votes for her at the DNC. The Republicans completely lost the news cycle after their convention to the Democrats. And Harris has been continuing to dominate the news cycle since. Trump has been trying to attract media, but he has nothing positive going on on his side and so, all he can do is mudsling. That doesn't sway independents and moderates. All he is doing is pandering to his base while she continues to whittle away at the independent and moderate votes that will make the decision in this election. Plus, she is outshining him with attracting previously unregistered voters to this election. Democrats are registering 2/3 - 3/4 of the voters in most swing states. |
Anonymous
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https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-polls-donald-trump-swing-states-1947207
Looks like Trump is gaining ground, if not outright leading |
Anonymous
Build the blue wall! |
Anonymous
That's all Trafalagar, the R pollster Not saying don't pay any attention - but don't give undue attention And also, just: does it feel to you like Trump is gaining ground? Does it comport with what you're seeing and experiencing right now? Vibes aren't everything but they are not nothing |
Anonymous
I’ve “adopted” NC as my state to put my volunteer hours. I both phone bank and go down every other weekend to canvas. It’s gonna be hard for Harris but crazy Mark Robinson is making it a possibility. The NC Dem party chair is kickin butt. If you need to find a place to donate for long lasting power, I encourage you to give to NC Dems. If not this year, Dems can pick up a Senate seat in 2026. |