2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[twitter] https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1829273817149264280?s=61&t=I7ZozTDGmPOsC7cmSRxwgA[/twitter]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

This is not what is on Nate silver’s website though. Harris leads Trump nationally and in Pennsylvania. Very slightly though.

You misunderstood.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Nate Silver's website shows Harris winning in the current polling average, but lowe probability than Trump to win the election, in the forecast that tries to cancel out short term bumps and seasonality.

Today's version doesn't show the probability in the non-paid section, but it does mention a decrease for Harris vs a few days ago when they already had Harris below 50% probability.

What is the point of cancelling out bumps. Did the Comey bump affect the 2016 election results? It must certainly did. Don't cancel it out.

Comey was late October!
His bump was during the election!
The convention is 2 months before the election.

I'm thinking some states have early voting that starts in a matter of weeks. We are in the election now.

September 23rd or later, except something weird in North Carolina on September 9.

The number of people who are both uncommitted and also voting a month early is tiny, though.

https://www.mcieast.marines.mil/Portals/33/Documents/Adjutant/Voter%20Registration%20Program/When%20does%20early%20voting%20start%20in%20every%20state.pdf?ver=2016-10-17-105859-553

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

After the 2016 fiasco, I’m not getting my hopes up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Rasmussen is a joke.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Rasmussen is a joke.

Rasmussen has been most accurate the last 2 elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Rasmussen is a joke.

Rasmussen has been most accurate the last 2 elections

LOL no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The ABC/Washington Post poll has always been biased against Trump. Look at how off they were in 2020. The sample they used I their poll is a joke. That is not close to Trump’s approval rating in any other poll.

[Anonymous]

Can someone explain to me like I am a polling simpleton, which I am. I don’t understand why any polling company would be biased. I assume they would want to be considered accurate to give their polling credibility. What is the significance or reason why there are biased pollsters, either on the left or the right? And why would anybody trust biased pollsters instead of trusting the ones who are historically accurate?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain to me like I am a polling simpleton, which I am. I don’t understand why any polling company would be biased. I assume they would want to be considered accurate to give their polling credibility. What is the significance or reason why there are biased pollsters, either on the left or the right? And why would anybody trust biased pollsters instead of trusting the ones who are historically accurate?

I think some pollsters exist to make it look like a preferred candidate is winning. Accuracy isn’t the goal for those outfits, trying to guide the story is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain to me like I am a polling simpleton, which I am. I don’t understand why any polling company would be biased. I assume they would want to be considered accurate to give their polling credibility. What is the significance or reason why there are biased pollsters, either on the left or the right? And why would anybody trust biased pollsters instead of trusting the ones who are historically accurate?

I think some pollsters exist to make it look like a preferred candidate is winning. Accuracy isn’t the goal for those outfits, trying to guide the story is.

This exactly. Trump has a stupid ego, so there are polls done by right leaning outfits to help temper their internal polling, which is abysmal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain to me like I am a polling simpleton, which I am. I don’t understand why any polling company would be biased. I assume they would want to be considered accurate to give their polling credibility. What is the significance or reason why there are biased pollsters, either on the left or the right? And why would anybody trust biased pollsters instead of trusting the ones who are historically accurate?

I think some pollsters exist to make it look like a preferred candidate is winning. Accuracy isn’t the goal for those outfits, trying to guide the story is.

+1 This absolutely describes Trafalgar.

[Anonymous]

Polls a few months out are trying to shape opinion, not reflect it. They did this with Clinton in 2016, trying to excite Ds and discourage Rs. As the election draws closer, however, the pollsters have to start bringing their results closer to actual so they don't have a big miss and the race purportedly gets tighter as you saw with Clinton's margin narrowing into election day.