2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Harris gets up to +8 to 10 in a national poll, then she would be hitting Obama type numbers. As it is, she is around +5 with two months to go.

The structural imbalance in the Electoral College and the Senate are really a sight to behold on behalf of the GOP. They have really bamboozled a lot of the agrarian red states into believing our cities are dystopian hellholes filled with lunatics, gays, trans and other horrible people.

In fact, our blue areas are responsible for over 70% of the GDP and those areas subsidize the "low tax" red areas significantly.

We really need a national re-set.

And Obama was a real nail biter.

But as to your final point, if Trump is elected, our economy will crash and red states will get to live with the consequences of their decision to elect a weird demented psychopath. Those subsidies they depend on will disappear right into the pockets of Trump and his cronies. They’ll get their privatized schools and retirements and live an 18th century lifestyle.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

I’m shocked that NC is slightly but seemingly firmly for Trump/just slightly out of reach for Democrats for the presidency when they have a Gov election this year as well and the D candidate seems poised to clean house in that race. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2024/north-carolina/

No incumbent and the R candidate is a nutter. Are there really that many people voting for Trump and the D gov candidate? Or no one at all??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked that NC is slightly but seemingly firmly for Trump/just slightly out of reach for Democrats for the presidency when they have a Gov election this year as well and the D candidate seems poised to clean house in that race. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2024/north-carolina/

No incumbent and the R candidate is a nutter. Are there really that many people voting for Trump and the D gov candidate? Or no one at all??

I’m not a polling expert. But my understanding is that there is a margin of error that is about 2-3%. All of these polls are too close to know who is leading. It does seem clear that Trump remains Teflon though. How his dementia and all the rest are not giving him negative numbers is astonishing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states."

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/02/trump-harris-polls-2024-00176981

Arizona (11 electoral votes)

FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.2
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.5
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.5
2020 result: Biden +0.3
Though Trump leads narrowly in two of the three polling averages, the lone high-quality poll conducted after last month’s Democratic convention, from Fox News, showed Harris 1 point ahead of Trump, 50 percent to 49 percent.

Georgia (16 electoral votes)

FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.4
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.2
Silver Bulletin average: Harris +1.1
2020 result: Biden +0.2
Another state where Harris led a post-convention Fox News poll last week, by 2 points, but the averages mostly tip ever so slightly toward Trump.

Nevada (6 electoral votes)

FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.8
RealClearPolitics average: Tie
Silver Bulletin average: Harris +0.8
2020 result: Biden +2.4
Democrats’ fortunes have improved in Nevada, where the post-convention polling generally shows Harris slightly ahead – including a recent Fox News poll giving her a 2-point edge.

North Carolina (16 electoral votes)

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.4
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.6
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.3
2020 result: Trump +1.3
The only battleground state where Trump leads in all three averages, but it’s still only by about 1 point — which was also his margin in last week’s Fox News poll.

I’ve “adopted” NC as my state to put my volunteer hours. I both phone bank and go down every other weekend to canvas. It’s gonna be hard for Harris but crazy Mark Robinson is making it a possibility. The NC Dem party chair is kickin butt. If you need to find a place to donate for long lasting power, I encourage you to give to NC Dems. If not this year, Dems can pick up a Senate seat in 2026.

Thank you for your work and first hand information. I will add NC dem to my list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked that NC is slightly but seemingly firmly for Trump/just slightly out of reach for Democrats for the presidency when they have a Gov election this year as well and the D candidate seems poised to clean house in that race. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2024/north-carolina/

No incumbent and the R candidate is a nutter. Are there really that many people voting for Trump and the D gov candidate? Or no one at all??

I’m not a polling expert. But my understanding is that there is a margin of error that is about 2-3%. All of these polls are too close to know who is leading. It does seem clear that Trump remains Teflon though. How his dementia and all the rest are not giving him negative numbers is astonishing.

The corporate media isn’t reporting on any of that, nor will it. Hence he’s never treated like a serious person. Everyone who wants to vote for a weird buffoon can.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Not to rain on this parade because it’s always nice to see the GOP take an L, but was New Hampshire ever really in play for Trump?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not to rain on this parade because it’s always nice to see the GOP take an L, but was New Hampshire ever really in play for Trump?

Nope, as a Trump supporter, I never thought he would win that state. He doesn’t need it either, as long as he wins the majority of the seven swing states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Its more that she isn't taking anything for granted. I bet she visits Omaha as well at some point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not to rain on this parade because it’s always nice to see the GOP take an L, but was New Hampshire ever really in play for Trump?

Trump and his dumb followers thought it was at one point.

Look at July polling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-hampshire/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-polls-donald-trump-swing-states-1947207

Looks like Trump is gaining ground, if not outright leading

That's all Trafalagar, the R pollster

Not saying don't pay any attention - but don't give undue attention

And also, just: does it feel to you like Trump is gaining ground? Does it comport with what you're seeing and experiencing right now? Vibes aren't everything but they are not nothing

If you live in DC/MD/VA your vibes are worth nothing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

'

The counter to Trump's RNC bump was that the Democrats staged a clever news coup there. Just days after the RNC, then the Repubicans would be expected to get their bump, they announced that Biden was stepping down and nominating Harris to take his place. Suddenly the news cycle was dominated by the news of the Democratic ticket. There was no honeymoon period for the Republicans to get their bump. Harris spent her next 48 hours reaching out to all of the Biden delegates that had already been elected in the primaries and securing their votes for her at the DNC. The Republicans completely lost the news cycle after their convention to the Democrats. And Harris has been continuing to dominate the news cycle since. Trump has been trying to attract media, but he has nothing positive going on on his side and so, all he can do is mudsling. That doesn't sway independents and moderates. All he is doing is pandering to his base while she continues to whittle away at the independent and moderate votes that will make the decision in this election. Plus, she is outshining him with attracting previously unregistered voters to this election. Democrats are registering 2/3 - 3/4 of the voters in most swing states.

Oh, Trump faltered in the polls because people liked his new opponent. NYT on hand to explain why that is bad for Harris.

[Anonymous]

based on where "spend" is being allocated, this appears to be the Trump strategy

And then he will push the non-electoral route if this fails.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-polls-donald-trump-swing-states-1947207

Looks like Trump is gaining ground, if not outright leading

That's all Trafalagar, the R pollster

Not saying don't pay any attention - but don't give undue attention

And also, just: does it feel to you like Trump is gaining ground? Does it comport with what you're seeing and experiencing right now? Vibes aren't everything but they are not nothing

If you live in DC/MD/VA your vibes are worth nothing.

I live in Florida but thanks