2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RMG Research poll (Oct 11): Harris leads 50%-47% nationally
Same pollster on Oct 4: 49-49

A Republican-leaning pollster, associated with Rasmussen

Which means it might be massaged so that it’s actually better for Harris than it looks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am a Democrat so I bring a huge amount of anxiety to this - but you guys really sound nuts right now, MAGA. You should be more anxious than you seem.

Do you really think that with Kari Lake and abortion on the ballot, Arizona is some slam dunk for Republicans?

The right wing crap poll spam does make them seem like rats on coke. Not a lot of coke, just a little coke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The past 48 hours have been devastating for Democrats.

How so?

PP mistakenly believes there is a meaningful difference between polls that have Harris up 2 points and polls that have Trump up 2 points. In reality nothing has changed. The race is close and pollsters have no idea who will win or if it will be close or a blowout by Harris or Trump.

Polls are not elections. Trump hasn't "flipped" any states. They are all toss ups.

The problem is that at similar points in the election cycle, both Clinton and Biden were up significantly. I believe it was 10 and 6 percent respectively. The Trump vote is never accurately captured in polls. And it's important to remember that even though he lost in 2020, he actually increased his vote number from 73 million in 2016 to 80 million in 2020. If Democrats aren't energized and mobilized - which they aren't - they are going to lose. The Harris poll numbers are not good given the historic undercount of Trump voters. If patterns hold, right now this looks like a very comfortable victory for Trump.

A lot of pollsters are actually assuming turnout based on 2020 because they are afraid of underestimating Trump voters again.

I honestly don't think anybody knows what is going to happen.

Either way, the notion that Trump has "flipped" any states in the last 48 hours is preposterous. People who say sh&t like that are either dumb or trying to shape a false narrative.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Good to see her at that 50% threshold - it means there are fewer undecided voters who might break for Trump at the last minute. A 50-48 lead is stronger than a 48-46.

[Anonymous]

What I’m reading in nearly every post: if polls reflect Trump up, they are MAGA garbage propaganda. If Harris is up, they are accurate and actually downplaying her lead.

Um, ok. I guess people will just believe whatever narrative they want to manifest

[Anonymous]

Trump Leads in Arizona as Harris Holds an Edge in Pennsylvania, New Polls Show
The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls found Donald Trump with a six-point advantage in Arizona, and Kamala Harris with a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/times-siena-arizona-pennsylvania-polls.html

[Anonymous]

Are Times/Siena polls viewed as most accurate?

[Anonymous]

The NYT PA poll is hilarious. 46% of those surveyed were Biden supporters in 2020, 39% were Trump supporters. Biden won the state by 1%, not 8%. It looks like they are up to their usual ticks of oversampling liberals.

[Anonymous]

47%*

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What I’m reading in nearly every post: if polls reflect Trump up, they are MAGA garbage propaganda. If Harris is up, they are accurate and actually downplaying her lead.

Um, ok. I guess people will just believe whatever narrative they want to manifest

No, if you look at the ratings (ie past history) of the pollsters releasing the results that imply the race it tightening, their ratings are very low. Look at the more legitimate pollsters and, while still within the margin of error, the polls suggest something else.

It is all to 1) placate Trump and his ketchup and 2) set up that illusion that the "election was stolen"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What I’m reading in nearly every post: if polls reflect Trump up, they are MAGA garbage propaganda. If Harris is up, they are accurate and actually downplaying her lead.

Um, ok. I guess people will just believe whatever narrative they want to manifest

No, if you look at the ratings (ie past history) of the pollsters releasing the results that imply the race it tightening, their ratings are very low. Look at the more legitimate pollsters and, while still within the margin of error, the polls suggest something else.

It is all to 1) placate Trump and his ketchup and 2) set up that illusion that the "election was stolen"

How are Quinnipiac, Emerson, and Harris/X rated? Because none of these are Republican posters and they’re all showing Trump closing in swing states. Sorry, but that’s the truth.

If anything, pollsters like Quinnipiac overrated Biden support in 2020. Quinnipiac showed Biden was up by 10 nationally on Oct 19, 2019, and up by 11 on Nov 1, 2019. Biden ended up winning by 4.5 in the popular vote.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

Quinnipiac had Clinton up 6 in two national polls taken in October 2015. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

I don’t get where you’re getting this “Republicans pollsters are flooding the zone and Harris is winning” narrative from. Harris is way behind Clinton and Biden at this point in the race, and if the polls were corrected for Trump bias now why weren’t they corrected for Trump bias in 2020, where they were way off as well?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Why didn’t Joshua post the NYT’s Arizona poll results in this tweet?

Is it because Harris is losing by 5?

[Anonymous]

To the troll hoping to depress local Democrat turnout by posting polling results that are not credible...


...VA is voting for Harris. VA is not a swing state and not in play. Even with Youngkin tossing out Democrat American citizens from voter rolls.


Moron.

[Anonymous]

I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?