2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

[Anonymous]

Thank you! Can you link to the article.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

Just vote

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

Just vote

For sure but what polls are viewed as accurate?

[Anonymous]

According to the poll she is getting 46% of the White Vote and Trump is getting 49% of the white vote in PA. THIS IS HUGE!!!
Biden got 42% of the white vote , % Trump 57%
huge if it holds.
Another HUGE IS HARRIS 65+ group. 51-45%. Trump had 53% of that elder vote last time. According to most polls she is winning the elder vote and that will be huge, They show up they are not online all day playing Roblox and doing TikTok dancers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

None.

You can read Nate Cohn, formerly of 538, and now NYT's chief political analyst. He talks about polling methodology and the role that nonresponse bias and weighing for recalled 2020 votes play in polling outcomes. It's technical but worth your time. He's very honest, and explains that certain polling results have been surprising and unexpected. For example, here's his most recent take about Harris being up by 4 in Pennsylvania and Trump being up by 6 in Arizona:

Gift article -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/upshot/harris-trump-polls-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R04.78Ev.pkX6xpYenQar&smid=url-share

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

None.

You can read Nate Cohn, formerly of 538, and now NYT's chief political analyst. He talks about polling methodology and the role that nonresponse bias and weighing for recalled 2020 votes play in polling outcomes. It's technical but worth your time. He's very honest, and explains that certain polling results have been surprising and unexpected. For example, here's his most recent take about Harris being up by 4 in Pennsylvania and Trump being up by 6 in Arizona:

Gift article -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/upshot/harris-trump-polls-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R04.78Ev.pkX6xpYenQar&smid=url-share

PP here. I'm a subscriber but thank you! Hadn't read it before.

[Anonymous]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

2016 polling. We like to talk about how polling was off. lets see the 2016 polling that had 56% of the 65+ youth group. Now more polls are saying Harris is winning the group or its 50-50..... That should be a huge red flag

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why didn’t Joshua post the NYT’s Arizona poll results in this tweet?

Is it because Harris is losing by 5?

Smithley focuses on Pennsylvania as you can clearly see in his Twitter bio.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:According to the poll she is getting 46% of the White Vote and Trump is getting 49% of the white vote in PA. THIS IS HUGE!!!
Biden got 42% of the white vote , % Trump 57%
huge if it holds.
Another HUGE IS HARRIS 65+ group. 51-45%. Trump had 53% of that elder vote last time. According to most polls she is winning the elder vote and that will be huge, They show up they are not online all day playing Roblox and doing TikTok dancers

The poll oversampled liberals. The recalled 2020 vote was Biden +8. He won the state by one point. In 2020, The Times claimed Biden was up by 6% in Pennsylvania in their poll, and the result was only Biden ahead by one point. These polls were claiming Biden was winning older voters in 2020 and he lost by 5. It’s a manipulated poll to invent a Harris lead.

[Anonymous]

Harris 50%, Trump. 48% national poll ABC

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/economic-discontent-issue-divisions-add-tight-presidential-contest/story?id=114723390

[Anonymous]

National doesn't matter.

How many times does this have to be stated?

It's state by state to 270.

[Anonymous]

48%-48% national NBC poll

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/dead-heat-trump-pulls-even-harris-nbc-news-poll-rcna174201

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't followed polls in a while... are RCP averages credible? What kind of polls are they averaging? Is there a partisan tilt there?

There's a good news story discussing this about a month ago that expected all of this. A ton of garbage right wing pollsters that would flood the polling scene to give the impression that Trump was pulling away in order to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and/or justify his "it's rigged" comments. Nothing more.

So what poll to believe?

Just vote

For sure but what polls are viewed as accurate?

The A rated and B rated polls are viewed as more accurate. You want to look at aggregates rather than individual polls to see a more realistic sense of where a race is. You want to look at changes in polling to see if that indicates changes in how people are going to vote - but as Rs flood us with more poor quality polls that all show Trump running away with things, that gets harder to measure.

The TL;DR is that at some point the polls don't matter very much and you really need to vote and encourage your friends, family, and neighbors to do the same.