2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

I am a Democrat so I bring a huge amount of anxiety to this - but you guys really sound nuts right now, MAGA. You should be more anxious than you seem.

Do you really think that with Kari Lake and abortion on the ballot, Arizona is some slam dunk for Republicans?

[Anonymous]

RMG Research poll (Oct 11): Harris leads 50%-47% nationally
Same pollster on Oct 4: 49-49

A Republican-leaning pollster, associated with Rasmussen

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RMG Research poll (Oct 11): Harris leads 50%-47% nationally
Same pollster on Oct 4: 49-49

A Republican-leaning pollster, associated with Rasmussen

I hope it’s true!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RMG Research poll (Oct 11): Harris leads 50%-47% nationally
Same pollster on Oct 4: 49-49

A Republican-leaning pollster, associated with Rasmussen

Means nothing. Only a few states matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RMG Research poll (Oct 11): Harris leads 50%-47% nationally
Same pollster on Oct 4: 49-49

A Republican-leaning pollster, associated with Rasmussen

Means nothing. Only a few states matter.

Not one poll, but movement in the national average can mean a lot. Because movements are somewhat correlated - battleground states tend to move in the same direction with some lag. The state polls are also now a cesspool of right-leaning junk polls, so lots of noise there.

Aggregators like NYT pollster, which weight polls according to their reliability, show a clear pattern of narrowing in ALL battleground states. Wherever Trump was ahead by a bit, like AZ, GA and NC, the movement is in Harris' direction. In the likes of WI. MI and PA, where she was slightly ahead, the movement is in Trump's direction. This may be true, or it could be the effect of the weighting that Nate Cohn has written about (most pollsters reweighting responses by self-reported voting patterns of 2020), which has the predictable effect of driving the results of these polls closer and closer to the actual results of 2020. I fear that is what is happening now among the more reputed pollsters. As for the right-wing junk ones, they are just trying to create a "winning" narrative for their emperor. For those interested in figuring out what actually is going on as opposed to scoring partisan points or trolling, the junk polls add no value and should be ignored.

Bottom line: margins are narrowing in almost every battleground state. But this could be the reality, or just a weird artifact of weighting by pollsters who are trying to be "safe" by letting history guide them, which would mean that they would not be in a position to pick up any real change in the electorate if that were to occur. I guess we will know what is the truth on Nov 6 or thereabouts.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

In 2022 I thought Rosenberg was maybe a little full of hopium. Turns out he was looking at the right sectors and made the right call then, which suggests he’s probably right now. There; that’s my three sentences.

[Anonymous]

Removing Philly voters from a statewide PA poll to show Trump ahead is certainly a novel tactic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

It would be interesting to see if there are lower than expected turnouts in swing states by Republicans who think that Trump has enough of a lead that they don't have to vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

+100. The polls are a part of creating this apparition of red wave, 2024 version. Then they are amplified by the likes of RCP, random posters on X, and echoed across various fora including DCUM, picked up by publicity-hounds in the media, and further amplified and so on. They did the exact same in 2022. This time they can't do it with the national polls as there are reputed pollsters doing regular polling there. But states aren't polled that regularly by top pollsters. So lots of scope to flood the zone with junk. And then rely on the likes of RCP to make sneakily biased choices of what to include and when to drive up the Trump averages. Rinse and repeat.

Difference between 2022 and now is that then it was just about depressing D turnout - which won't work, as it didn't in 2022, as the RW morons don't realize that a vast majority of normal people are totally untouched what goes on comment boards or reddit or X-sphere, and the D base is motivated even more by this to come out and vote. But now it is also about creating a narrative about Trump winning, so that when that doesn't happen there is a large group of people primed to believe in conspiracy theories.

To counter that, people can just go to the more careful and neutral aggregators like 538, NYT pollster, the Economist or the likes. And amplify those instead of RCP's junk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Great news. So extrapolating from this, 50% of "swing voters" who voted for Trump in 2016 are all in for Harris. My math shows that gives Harris PA hands-down, when I add that to an adjustment for the demography of the voting population in 2016 vs 2024 (lots of old people being replaced by new voters over 8 years).

Yea, that's not it. Harris needs all these people who switched from Trump to Biden to vote for her, not have half go back to Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

+100. The polls are a part of creating this apparition of red wave, 2024 version. Then they are amplified by the likes of RCP, random posters on X, and echoed across various fora including DCUM, picked up by publicity-hounds in the media, and further amplified and so on. They did the exact same in 2022. This time they can't do it with the national polls as there are reputed pollsters doing regular polling there. But states aren't polled that regularly by top pollsters. So lots of scope to flood the zone with junk. And then rely on the likes of RCP to make sneakily biased choices of what to include and when to drive up the Trump averages. Rinse and repeat.

Difference between 2022 and now is that then it was just about depressing D turnout - which won't work, as it didn't in 2022, as the RW morons don't realize that a vast majority of normal people are totally untouched what goes on comment boards or reddit or X-sphere, and the D base is motivated even more by this to come out and vote. But now it is also about creating a narrative about Trump winning, so that when that doesn't happen there is a large group of people primed to believe in conspiracy theories.

To counter that, people can just go to the more careful and neutral aggregators like 538, NYT pollster, the Economist or the likes. And amplify those instead of RCP's junk.

The Economist has it at 270-268.
You put a lot out there to argue about polls, in this case polls of polls. The ultimate poll is where are the candidates spending their time and money? And Harris is sending Obama to Pennsylvania and Michigan. She isn't doing anything in Arizona.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

+100. The polls are a part of creating this apparition of red wave, 2024 version. Then they are amplified by the likes of RCP, random posters on X, and echoed across various fora including DCUM, picked up by publicity-hounds in the media, and further amplified and so on. They did the exact same in 2022. This time they can't do it with the national polls as there are reputed pollsters doing regular polling there. But states aren't polled that regularly by top pollsters. So lots of scope to flood the zone with junk. And then rely on the likes of RCP to make sneakily biased choices of what to include and when to drive up the Trump averages. Rinse and repeat.

Difference between 2022 and now is that then it was just about depressing D turnout - which won't work, as it didn't in 2022, as the RW morons don't realize that a vast majority of normal people are totally untouched what goes on comment boards or reddit or X-sphere, and the D base is motivated even more by this to come out and vote. But now it is also about creating a narrative about Trump winning, so that when that doesn't happen there is a large group of people primed to believe in conspiracy theories.

To counter that, people can just go to the more careful and neutral aggregators like 538, NYT pollster, the Economist or the likes. And amplify those instead of RCP's junk.

The Economist has it at 270-268.
You put a lot out there to argue about polls, in this case polls of polls. The ultimate poll is where are the candidates spending their time and money? And Harris is sending Obama to Pennsylvania and Michigan. She isn't doing anything in Arizona.

And 538 has a tie in Pennsylvania and 262-257 Trump without it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

+100. The polls are a part of creating this apparition of red wave, 2024 version. Then they are amplified by the likes of RCP, random posters on X, and echoed across various fora including DCUM, picked up by publicity-hounds in the media, and further amplified and so on. They did the exact same in 2022. This time they can't do it with the national polls as there are reputed pollsters doing regular polling there. But states aren't polled that regularly by top pollsters. So lots of scope to flood the zone with junk. And then rely on the likes of RCP to make sneakily biased choices of what to include and when to drive up the Trump averages. Rinse and repeat.

Difference between 2022 and now is that then it was just about depressing D turnout - which won't work, as it didn't in 2022, as the RW morons don't realize that a vast majority of normal people are totally untouched what goes on comment boards or reddit or X-sphere, and the D base is motivated even more by this to come out and vote. But now it is also about creating a narrative about Trump winning, so that when that doesn't happen there is a large group of people primed to believe in conspiracy theories.

To counter that, people can just go to the more careful and neutral aggregators like 538, NYT pollster, the Economist or the likes. And amplify those instead of RCP's junk.

The Economist has it at 270-268.
You put a lot out there to argue about polls, in this case polls of polls. The ultimate poll is where are the candidates spending their time and money? And Harris is sending Obama to Pennsylvania and Michigan. She isn't doing anything in Arizona.

She had a rally yesterday at Chandler, Arizona, which was heavily covered by the local media and some of national media too. She has nice things to say about McCain, you know the guy Trump keeps badmouthing. WSJ poll today has her leading ARZ by 2 points.
So tell me, why do you mislead? Even when it can be outed by a 1-minute google search?
https://www.azfamily.com/2024/10/10/harris-hold-campaign-rally-phoenix-early-voting-gets-underway-arizona/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

+100. The polls are a part of creating this apparition of red wave, 2024 version. Then they are amplified by the likes of RCP, random posters on X, and echoed across various fora including DCUM, picked up by publicity-hounds in the media, and further amplified and so on. They did the exact same in 2022. This time they can't do it with the national polls as there are reputed pollsters doing regular polling there. But states aren't polled that regularly by top pollsters. So lots of scope to flood the zone with junk. And then rely on the likes of RCP to make sneakily biased choices of what to include and when to drive up the Trump averages. Rinse and repeat.

Difference between 2022 and now is that then it was just about depressing D turnout - which won't work, as it didn't in 2022, as the RW morons don't realize that a vast majority of normal people are totally untouched what goes on comment boards or reddit or X-sphere, and the D base is motivated even more by this to come out and vote. But now it is also about creating a narrative about Trump winning, so that when that doesn't happen there is a large group of people primed to believe in conspiracy theories.

To counter that, people can just go to the more careful and neutral aggregators like 538, NYT pollster, the Economist or the likes. And amplify those instead of RCP's junk.

The Economist has it at 270-268.
You put a lot out there to argue about polls, in this case polls of polls. The ultimate poll is where are the candidates spending their time and money? And Harris is sending Obama to Pennsylvania and Michigan. She isn't doing anything in Arizona.

She had a rally yesterday at Chandler, Arizona, which was heavily covered by the local media and some of national media too. She has nice things to say about McCain, you know the guy Trump keeps badmouthing. WSJ poll today has her leading ARZ by 2 points.
So tell me, why do you mislead? Even when it can be outed by a 1-minute google search?
https://www.azfamily.com/2024/10/10/harris-hold-campaign-rally-phoenix-early-voting-gets-underway-arizona/

PP here. Gets even better. She is there in ARZ today as well.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2024/10/11/kamala-harris-scottsdale-arizona-campaign-event/75622265007/
She will be in NC over the weekend. Sending Barack to PA is perfect while she barnstorms the other states, as her "alternate" path to 270 seems quite open and plausible, as insurance for 1 or even 2

By your metric, what are the "ultimate poll" tea leaves suggesting now? And what do those say about the Don campaigning in Colorado, where he is 11 points down?