2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

That's a really silly take. The polls have barely moved. The race has basically been a toss up for weeks and still us.

[Anonymous]

Do people really think that there is any practical difference between a poll saying Harris is up by 2 points versus a poll saying Trump is up by 2 points? If you think this is indicative of some underlying change in the race, you don't understand how polls work. Both of these polls essentially mean they don't know who will win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do people really think that there is any practical difference between a poll saying Harris is up by 2 points versus a poll saying Trump is up by 2 points? If you think this is indicative of some underlying change in the race, you don't understand how polls work. Both of these polls essentially mean they don't know who will win.

+1 exactly

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This guy hasn't been relevant as a pollster since 1996. He tried and failed with the "no labels" effort and just tries too hard with his bad takes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do people really think that there is any practical difference between a poll saying Harris is up by 2 points versus a poll saying Trump is up by 2 points? If you think this is indicative of some underlying change in the race, you don't understand how polls work. Both of these polls essentially mean they don't know who will win.

Not when you factor in how much Trump’s support was underrepresented in polls in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles.

Prime example is Wisconsin. In 2016 Trump wasn’t leading in a single poll for the entirety of the cycle.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/wisconsin/trump-vs-clinton

In 2020, Trump didn’t lead in a single poll in Wisconsin from late August until the election. He was underwater by as much as 17 points (!!!) in 2020 and only lost by .7.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/wisconsin/trump-vs-biden

Now the last four Wisconsin polls have him either tied or up by 1 or 2 and it has been trending Trump for a week. The “polls have adjusted” argument holds no water because they were wrong so much in Biden’s favor in 2020 after they were also historically wrong in 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

No. Polling has consistently over-sampled Trump supporters since 2016 when Trump had his "shock" win (which really was not a shock - he was within margin of error for the last month before 2016 election).

The fact of the matter is that Trump is doing pretty awful with Independents, his own Republican base (those who support Haley, Romney, Cheney), women, and young people. He has not broadened his coalition. His base has shrunk, even if they are very enthusiastic about voting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

No. Polling has consistently over-sampled Trump supporters since 2016 when Trump had his "shock" win (which really was not a shock - he was within margin of error for the last month before 2016 election).

The fact of the matter is that Trump is doing pretty awful with Independents, his own Republican base (those who support Haley, Romney, Cheney), women, and young people. He has not broadened his coalition. His base has shrunk, even if they are very enthusiastic about voting.

I guess Black men, Hispanic men, Orthodox Jews, and Muslims don’t count?

Trump is outperforming any Republican in the history of presidential politics in all these groups. What are you talking about?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

No. Polling has consistently over-sampled Trump supporters since 2016 when Trump had his "shock" win (which really was not a shock - he was within margin of error for the last month before 2016 election).

The fact of the matter is that Trump is doing pretty awful with Independents, his own Republican base (those who support Haley, Romney, Cheney), women, and young people. He has not broadened his coalition. His base has shrunk, even if they are very enthusiastic about voting.

I guess Black men, Hispanic men, Orthodox Jews, and Muslims don’t count?

Trump is outperforming any Republican in the history of presidential politics in all these groups. What are you talking about?

You said that in 2020 too and he still lost black men, Hispanic men, and Muslims by huge margins. Orthodox Jews are literally like 500,000 mostly concentrated in NJ and NY; they are not tipping the needle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

No. Polling has consistently over-sampled Trump supporters since 2016 when Trump had his "shock" win (which really was not a shock - he was within margin of error for the last month before 2016 election).

The fact of the matter is that Trump is doing pretty awful with Independents, his own Republican base (those who support Haley, Romney, Cheney), women, and young people. He has not broadened his coalition. His base has shrunk, even if they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Absolutely not. RCP had Biden winning by 7.2 nationally and he only won by 4.5. Quinnipiac, which is showing Trump up by 4 in Michigan now, had Trump down by 10 in 2020 just days before the election.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do people really think that there is any practical difference between a poll saying Harris is up by 2 points versus a poll saying Trump is up by 2 points? If you think this is indicative of some underlying change in the race, you don't understand how polls work. Both of these polls essentially mean they don't know who will win.

Not when you factor in how much Trump’s support was underrepresented in polls in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles.

Prime example is Wisconsin. In 2016 Trump wasn’t leading in a single poll for the entirety of the cycle.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/wisconsin/trump-vs-clinton

In 2020, Trump didn’t lead in a single poll in Wisconsin from late August until the election. He was underwater by as much as 17 points (!!!) in 2020 and only lost by .7.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/wisconsin/trump-vs-biden

Now the last four Wisconsin polls have him either tied or up by 1 or 2 and it has been trending Trump for a week. The “polls have adjusted” argument holds no water because they were wrong so much in Biden’s favor in 2020 after they were also historically wrong in 2016.

I think you meant to respond to someone else because this long rambling post makes no sense as a response to my post above.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any polls showing Trump almost tied or leading Harris are devastating. Most polls undercount true support for Trump.

She is toast.

No. Polling has consistently over-sampled Trump supporters since 2016 when Trump had his "shock" win (which really was not a shock - he was within margin of error for the last month before 2016 election).

The fact of the matter is that Trump is doing pretty awful with Independents, his own Republican base (those who support Haley, Romney, Cheney), women, and young people. He has not broadened his coalition. His base has shrunk, even if they are very enthusiastic about voting.

I guess Black men, Hispanic men, Orthodox Jews, and Muslims don’t count?

Trump is outperforming any Republican in the history of presidential politics in all these groups. What are you talking about?

You said that in 2020 too and he still lost black men, Hispanic men, and Muslims by huge margins. Orthodox Jews are literally like 500,000 mostly concentrated in NJ and NY; they are not tipping the needle.

He is losing Black men, but by a far lower margin than any other Republican candidate in modern history.

[Anonymous]

Real clear politics is not a reliable source people it’s owned by Peter

[Anonymous]

The polls show she is slipping in every swing state. The national lead of 3-4 points is meaningless.