2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looking at the polling from the last few days and weeks, I would rather be a Republican then a Democrat.

That's the major flaw in your premise. Polling is dying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

The thing is Trump isn't going to win Michigan. They have a clean sweep of Democrats running the state, economy there is solid, and they have an abortion referendum on the ballot that has their electorate fired up. Housing is also still affordable in Michigan, so younger voters are less despondent on that issue. Add in the COVID deaths, older conservative white Boomers leaving the state for retirement in the South, etc.

So I don't really care what the polls say about Trump in Michigan. And it's the main reason why I know these polls are screwy - Michigan is going to be won by Harris by 5+ points. Way too many structural advantages for her.

I'll bump this post back up after Election Day.

5+ points is a big ask for a swing state. Having said that, I definitely think out of all the northern swing states, Harris’s position is the strongest in Michigan but that will still only translate to a maybe 50-48 win with 2%ish going for other candidates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

Sample of one. I consider myself a republican because that’s how I started my political life. I am unable to call myself a democrat. I have voted for the democratic candidate for president since 2000. I have no idea how many of us there are.

Harris has a higher percentage of Democrats voting for her than Trump has of Republicans.
“If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.

Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.

The findings are among the most substantive analyses of Haley supporters. They come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll showing that Harris has made major inroads among GOP voters, with 9 percent saying they planned to support the vice president, up from 5 percent from a survey last month.”
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-poll-finds-large-chunk

That tracks. I would have voted for Haley over Biden for sure. Against Harris I’m not sure. Harris is pretty tough, which I like.

[Anonymous]

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If you want to post more than 3 sentences of thought and analysis or remarks about your own personal journey please do so in another thread.

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[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

The thing is Trump isn't going to win Michigan. They have a clean sweep of Democrats running the state, economy there is solid, and they have an abortion referendum on the ballot that has their electorate fired up. Housing is also still affordable in Michigan, so younger voters are less despondent on that issue. Add in the COVID deaths, older conservative white Boomers leaving the state for retirement in the South, etc.

So I don't really care what the polls say about Trump in Michigan. And it's the main reason why I know these polls are screwy - Michigan is going to be won by Harris by 5+ points. Way too many structural advantages for her.

I'll bump this post back up after Election Day.

5+ points is a big ask for a swing state. Having said that, I definitely think out of all the northern swing states, Harris’s position is the strongest in Michigan but that will still only translate to a maybe 50-48 win with 2%ish going for other candidates.

Biden won it by 2.8%. But that was before the coup attempt and Dobbs, plus in the middle of the COVID insanity. I think 4-5% is realistic for Harris given the current environment and demographics in MI.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

The thing is Trump isn't going to win Michigan. They have a clean sweep of Democrats running the state, economy there is solid, and they have an abortion referendum on the ballot that has their electorate fired up. Housing is also still affordable in Michigan, so younger voters are less despondent on that issue. Add in the COVID deaths, older conservative white Boomers leaving the state for retirement in the South, etc.

So I don't really care what the polls say about Trump in Michigan. And it's the main reason why I know these polls are screwy - Michigan is going to be won by Harris by 5+ points. Way too many structural advantages for her.

I'll bump this post back up after Election Day.

5+ points is a big ask for a swing state. Having said that, I definitely think out of all the northern swing states, Harris’s position is the strongest in Michigan but that will still only translate to a maybe 50-48 win with 2%ish going for other candidates.

Biden won it by 2.8%. But that was before the coup attempt and Dobbs, plus in the middle of the COVID insanity. I think 4-5% is realistic for Harris given the current environment and demographics in MI.

And Biden had no ground game because he was adhering to COVID protocols. I really, really hope Harris has learned from that as well as Hilary's mistake and is focused on GOTV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I seriously doubt this. Unseating and incumbent is nearly impossible with such a popular incumbent as Baldwin. These junk poles and yeah, even Wassermn are just making fools of themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

so what? Did Trump ever come ahead on any national poll? He is banking on a handful of states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

so what? Did Trump ever come ahead on any national poll? He is banking on a handful of states.

DP The answer to your question is yes. There were a couple of high quality polls (NY Times/Siena, Quinnipiac) in September that had Trump very slightly ahead nationally. This race is very close and many national and most swing state polls are within the reported margin of error, which doesn't account for errors in turnout assumptions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

so what? Did Trump ever come ahead on any national poll? He is banking on a handful of states.

Out of 150 million voters, if Democrats were starting by sending 13.5 million extra voters to the polls, as they were in 2012(less voters so 10 million), then they are highly favored, and Republicans can only win by dominating independents and flipping Democrats. Now Republicans are sending 1.5 million extra voters instead of being down 9 million as four years ago.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

It gets so annoying to assume that Dems switched to Kamala to increase black votes. Anyone would have increased black votes. I don't believe the swing even though you have convinced yourself of this. Many of those black men that Trump is courting won't even vote. You know who does vote? Black women and they will be voting for Harris in huge numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

What is the underlying data because so many of these polls are BS.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]