2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

That tracks closer with the amount of enthusiasm and donations we’re seeing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

That tracks closer with the amount of enthusiasm and donations we’re seeing.

How does this square with the constant barrage of doom and gloom polls for Harris?

[Anonymous]

Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

That tracks closer with the amount of enthusiasm and donations we’re seeing.

How does this square with the constant barrage of doom and gloom polls for Harris?

There are few billionaires that also own major swaths of the media propping Trump up and trying to gaslight us. It won’t work.
Harris is the obvious and only choice.

[Anonymous]

Vance has officially dragged Trump down to where he was in 2022 - ahead by only six points in Ohio. Brown and Moreno are tied.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/10/ohio-voters-dismiss-false-claims-about-haitians-trump-has-slight-lead-post-poll-finds/

[Anonymous]

Emerson polls of every swing state - Trump +2 in Arizona, everywhere else one of them is +1 or they’re tied.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Emerson polls of every swing state - Trump +2 in Arizona, everywhere else one of them is +1 or they’re tied.

These are insanely good results for Trump after all the losing for him over the last month; almost shocking. No way Trump wins Nevada though. He'll lose by at least 4 there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

The thing is Trump isn't going to win Michigan. They have a clean sweep of Democrats running the state, economy there is solid, and they have an abortion referendum on the ballot that has their electorate fired up. Housing is also still affordable in Michigan, so younger voters are less despondent on that issue. Add in the COVID deaths, older conservative white Boomers leaving the state for retirement in the South, etc.

So I don't really care what the polls say about Trump in Michigan. And it's the main reason why I know these polls are screwy - Michigan is going to be won by Harris by 5+ points. Way too many structural advantages for her.

I'll bump this post back up after Election Day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Emerson polls of every swing state - Trump +2 in Arizona, everywhere else one of them is +1 or they’re tied.

I know it’s sample size of one, but I live in one of these states. In 2020, I answered polling calls on a regular basis. For child and bad cell coverage reasons, we still have the same landline and number. I have not received any polling calls this year.

I wfh and usually don’t answer the house phone, but I do during election season because I don’t mind answering those surveys. I wonder what has changed on the phone number selections and if my answers to 2022 surveys (we had tight state and Senate elections) played a role. I received a lot of calls that election season.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emerson polls of every swing state - Trump +2 in Arizona, everywhere else one of them is +1 or they’re tied.

I know it’s sample size of one, but I live in one of these states. In 2020, I answered polling calls on a regular basis. For child and bad cell coverage reasons, we still have the same landline and number. I have not received any polling calls this year.

I wfh and usually don’t answer the house phone, but I do during election season because I don’t mind answering those surveys. I wonder what has changed on the phone number selections and if my answers to 2022 surveys (we had tight state and Senate elections) played a role. I received a lot of calls that election season.

I live in GA and get at least 5 polling and/or political texts or calls each week. I respond to none of them-- delete and block.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac has Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan, losing Pennsylvania by 3.

The Hill/Emerson
Nevada Harris 48 Trump 47
Arizona Trump 49 Harris 47
NC Trump 49 Harris 48
Georgia Trump 49 Harris 48
Wisconsin 49-49
Michigan 49-49
Pennsylvania Trump 49 Harris 48

This is totally consistent with all the other polling that shows pretty much every swing state is a toss up.

These are all polls of 1000ish voters to try to guess at how millions of people will vote. There is going to be some error associated with just the fact that it's a sample of people, not to mention the choices they make to model who (which demographics) etc. will come out to vote. Harry Enten made the point that there is just a lot more error in the polls than the published margin of error. Anything is possible. It might not even be close at all - Harris might win by a lot, or Trump may win by a lot.

The thing is Trump isn't going to win Michigan. They have a clean sweep of Democrats running the state, economy there is solid, and they have an abortion referendum on the ballot that has their electorate fired up. Housing is also still affordable in Michigan, so younger voters are less despondent on that issue. Add in the COVID deaths, older conservative white Boomers leaving the state for retirement in the South, etc.

So I don't really care what the polls say about Trump in Michigan. And it's the main reason why I know these polls are screwy - Michigan is going to be won by Harris by 5+ points. Way too many structural advantages for her.

I'll bump this post back up after Election Day.

A Harris win in Michigan is absolutely within the published margin of error of the above polls and certainly within any additional error in turnout assumptions.

But so is a Trump win. The problem with your argument on the economy is that most people's purchasing power is still down and that affects them every day. I don't blame Biden/Harris for that, but I get why some people do.

I hope you are correct!

[Anonymous]

Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gallup has found more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats, for the first time in more than 30 years.
Democrats were +9 in 2012, +7 in 2016, +6 in 2020.

Pew also found Republicans with a 1 point lead, and this impacts their other polls, they will weight more Republicans(Gallup doesn't do head to head polling anymore).

Sample of one. I consider myself a republican because that’s how I started my political life. I am unable to call myself a democrat. I have voted for the democratic candidate for president since 2000. I have no idea how many of us there are.

[Anonymous]

Looking at the polling from the last few days and weeks, I would rather be a Republican then a Democrat.