Republican Hardliners Rolled and the future of McCarthy

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:I forgot the other point I wanted to make. Trump was in favor of a shutdown and is probably opposed to the CR that was approved (though I haven't seen his response yet). If McCarthy has to rely on Democratic votes, Trump will blow a sprocket. So, this whole thing could end up in a McCarthy/Trump split.

Briefly after January 6th, McCarthy seemed to understand the gravity of the situation and then he went to Mar a Lago to bend the knee and kiss Trump’s ring. If there’s a split, I don’t see any reason why McCarthy won’t smooth it over after the fact again.

[Anonymous]

Or maybe Gaetz doesn't follow through with his threat?

[Anonymous]

McCarthy hasn’t really done anything yet. Passing a 45-day continuing resolution is the easy part. He just had to put it on the floor and it would pass easily. Similar to the debt ceiling increase. The hard part is passing the full year detailed appropriations bills in the House and then negotiating final compromise bills with the Senate and White House. There is nothing to suggest he is capable of getting his caucus to do any real legislative bargaining.

[Anonymous]

If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

Who says the Democrats would have this venal weasel?

[Anonymous]

Pffft. Gaetz is all talk. He and the Chaos Caucus have to look tough to keep the donations rolling in.

[Anonymous]

#1 self preservation. He’s got to get rid of Gaetz. Win for MTG since she’s on the outs with her bestie, Matt. McCarthy can handle MTG groupie.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

Who says the Democrats would have this venal weasel?

Because McCarthy owes them for pulling his political bacon out of the fire. And McCarthy knows that the only way to retain his speakership is to work with the Democrats. So, he's going to negotiate with them. They'll get the Ukraine bill that they want passed and possibly even the full-year appropriations in exchange for their support of him as speaker. Not only that, but if McCarthy retains his speakership, Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus will have no legitimate power. McCarthy is tired of them and the Democrats hate them. McCarthy's contingent plus the Democrats can ensure that Gaetz is no longer a problem. Gaetz will be lucky to keep his judiciary committee appointment (which takes 2/3 majority of the House to remove him from), but McCarthy has the power and will likely remove Gaetz from every other committee. Gaetz gambled and lost and he doesn't even know it yet. But the CR was the sign that Gaetz pushed too hard, lost the decent package that he had in hand, and pushed McCarthy into putting the CR more favorable to the Democrats on the floor and getting it passed.

[jsteele]

Gaetz has apparently introduced his motion to remove McCarthy:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/...-government-shutdown

“It is going to be difficult for my Republican friends to keep calling President Biden ‘feeble’ while he continues to take Speaker McCarthy’s lunch money in every negotiation,” Gaetz said in his floor speech. “Members of the Republican party might vote differently on a motion to vacate if they heard what the speaker had to share with us about his secret side deal with Joe Biden on Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters after the floor speech, Gaetz indicated he would keep pushing motions to vacate until McCarthy is removed.

“It took Speaker McCarthy 15 votes to become the speaker, so until I get to 14 or 15, I don’t think I’m being any more dilatory than he was,” Gaetz said

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

Who says the Democrats would have this venal weasel?

Because McCarthy owes them for pulling his political bacon out of the fire. And McCarthy knows that the only way to retain his speakership is to work with the Democrats. So, he's going to negotiate with them. They'll get the Ukraine bill that they want passed and possibly even the full-year appropriations in exchange for their support of him as speaker. Not only that, but if McCarthy retains his speakership, Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus will have no legitimate power. McCarthy is tired of them and the Democrats hate them. McCarthy's contingent plus the Democrats can ensure that Gaetz is no longer a problem. Gaetz will be lucky to keep his judiciary committee appointment (which takes 2/3 majority of the House to remove him from), but McCarthy has the power and will likely remove Gaetz from every other committee. Gaetz gambled and lost and he doesn't even know it yet. But the CR was the sign that Gaetz pushed too hard, lost the decent package that he had in hand, and pushed McCarthy into putting the CR more favorable to the Democrats on the floor and getting it passed.

Ukraine aid will get done no matter what. It's too popular. So they don't need him for that.

They also benefit politically letting the GOP twist in the wind, until the moderates really feel like they can revolt.

[Anonymous]

Well at least this is entertaining.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:This is somewhat separate from the shutdown thread. But it is worth discussing the resolution of the shutdown threat. At one point, the Republicans had advanced a continuing resolution that was much more favorable to Republican priorities. Hardline Republicans defeated that resolution. Speaker of the House McCarthy's response was not to appease them further, but rather to cut a deal with Democrats. Every Democrat but one voted in favor of the resolution while over half of the Republicans voted against it. The resolution met all Democratic demands other than funding for Ukraine, but Congressman Matt Gaetz claims that McCarthy has agreed to vote on that funding separately. A standalone bill will very likely pass easily. Gaetz how promises to introduce a motion to remove McCarthy this week. It is unlikely McCarthy can win that vote without Democratic support. This sets up the following scenarios:

1) McCarthy miraculously survives with Republican votes. There are reports that large number of Republicans members are tired of Gaetz's antics and that he might even be kicked out of Congress due to an ethics investigation. So, it's possible that McCarthy comes down on Gaetz sufficiently strong enough to get other hardliners to fall into line.

2) McCarthy is defeated but Republicans can't agree on a replacement. It took 15 votes for McCarthy to get approved in the first place. How many votes would an alternative take?

3) McCarthy survives with Democratic votes. In this case, McCathy will be beholden to Democrats from here on out.

4) Unlikely, but my dream scenario. McCarthy is defeated, but while attempting to approve a replacement, Republican's engage in infighting which goes on for weeks and makes them look foolish and crazy. As a result, a handful of moderate Republicans get fed up with the entire circus and agree to vote for Hakim Jeffries who then becomes the next Speaker of the House.

Remember. ",The devil you know..." this is why Dems will vote for McCarthy and Nevin lives to fight another day. However, Gaetz is not the only one who hates McCarthy.

[Anonymous]

The Democrats are not saving this guy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

Who says the Democrats would have this venal weasel?

Because McCarthy owes them for pulling his political bacon out of the fire. And McCarthy knows that the only way to retain his speakership is to work with the Democrats. So, he's going to negotiate with them. They'll get the Ukraine bill that they want passed and possibly even the full-year appropriations in exchange for their support of him as speaker. Not only that, but if McCarthy retains his speakership, Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus will have no legitimate power. McCarthy is tired of them and the Democrats hate them. McCarthy's contingent plus the Democrats can ensure that Gaetz is no longer a problem. Gaetz will be lucky to keep his judiciary committee appointment (which takes 2/3 majority of the House to remove him from), but McCarthy has the power and will likely remove Gaetz from every other committee. Gaetz gambled and lost and he doesn't even know it yet. But the CR was the sign that Gaetz pushed too hard, lost the decent package that he had in hand, and pushed McCarthy into putting the CR more favorable to the Democrats on the floor and getting it passed.

Ukraine aid will get done no matter what. It's too popular. So they don't need him for that.

They also benefit politically letting the GOP twist in the wind, until the moderates really feel like they can revolt.

Not true. The Speaker of the House and/or the majority leader can prevent a bill from ever making it to the floor. I guarantee that Steve Scalise will never allow a Ukraine aid bill make it to the floor. So therefore, the only way that a Ukraine bill will ever make it there is if the Speaker allows it. Tell me what other Republican speaker is going to allow that bill to make it to the floor? The Democrats will negotiate with McCarthy and one of the things that he will do is hold up any more aid to Ukraine until the Democrats agree to vote for him to stay Speaker. He has them and they have him, so they will have to walk the path together or not at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If I was McCarthy I'd tell them all to f off and become a democrat.

Who says the Democrats would have this venal weasel?

Because McCarthy owes them for pulling his political bacon out of the fire. And McCarthy knows that the only way to retain his speakership is to work with the Democrats. So, he's going to negotiate with them. They'll get the Ukraine bill that they want passed and possibly even the full-year appropriations in exchange for their support of him as speaker. Not only that, but if McCarthy retains his speakership, Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus will have no legitimate power. McCarthy is tired of them and the Democrats hate them. McCarthy's contingent plus the Democrats can ensure that Gaetz is no longer a problem. Gaetz will be lucky to keep his judiciary committee appointment (which takes 2/3 majority of the House to remove him from), but McCarthy has the power and will likely remove Gaetz from every other committee. Gaetz gambled and lost and he doesn't even know it yet. But the CR was the sign that Gaetz pushed too hard, lost the decent package that he had in hand, and pushed McCarthy into putting the CR more favorable to the Democrats on the floor and getting it passed.

Ukraine aid will get done no matter what. It's too popular. So they don't need him for that.

They also benefit politically letting the GOP twist in the wind, until the moderates really feel like they can revolt.

Not true. The Speaker of the House and/or the majority leader can prevent a bill from ever making it to the floor. I guarantee that Steve Scalise will never allow an Ukraine aid bill make it to the floor. So therefore, the only way that an Ukraine bill will ever make it there is if the Speaker allows it. Tell me what other Republican speaker is going to allow that bill to make it to the floor? The Democrats will negotiate with McCarthy and one of the things that he will do is hold up any more aid to Ukraine until the Democrats agree to vote for him to stay Speaker. He has them and they have him, so they will have to walk the path together or not at all.

Most of the Republicans in the House support Ukraine aid, are none of them leadership material?