Republican Hardliners Rolled and the future of McCarthy

[jsteele]

This is somewhat separate from the shutdown thread. But it is worth discussing the resolution of the shutdown threat. At one point, the Republicans had advanced a continuing resolution that was much more favorable to Republican priorities. Hardline Republicans defeated that resolution. Speaker of the House McCarthy's response was not to appease them further, but rather to cut a deal with Democrats. Every Democrat but one voted in favor of the resolution while over half of the Republicans voted against it. The resolution met all Democratic demands other than funding for Ukraine, but Congressman Matt Gaetz claims that McCarthy has agreed to vote on that funding separately. A standalone bill will very likely pass easily. Gaetz how promises to introduce a motion to remove McCarthy this week. It is unlikely McCarthy can win that vote without Democratic support. This sets up the following scenarios:

1) McCarthy miraculously survives with Republican votes. There are reports that large number of Republicans members are tired of Gaetz's antics and that he might even be kicked out of Congress due to an ethics investigation. So, it's possible that McCarthy comes down on Gaetz sufficiently strong enough to get other hardliners to fall into line.

2) McCarthy is defeated but Republicans can't agree on a replacement. It took 15 votes for McCarthy to get approved in the first place. How many votes would an alternative take?

3) McCarthy survives with Democratic votes. In this case, McCathy will be beholden to Democrats from here on out.

4) Unlikely, but my dream scenario. McCarthy is defeated, but while attempting to approve a replacement, Republican's engage in infighting which goes on for weeks and makes them look foolish and crazy. As a result, a handful of moderate Republicans get fed up with the entire circus and agree to vote for Hakim Jeffries who then becomes the next Speaker of the House.

[Anonymous]

While 4 is nice to think about, I think it will be #1 or #3.

If it is #3, it will give me hope that we can crawl back to compromise and civility.

[Anonymous]

McCarthy seems to be tying MORE funding for the US border with Mexico to funding for Ukraine.

I mean, the GOP voted against more money for the border a few months ago, so I am sure the Dems would be happy to get more money for the border. I am not sure why that is an own, but whatever.

All the better if they can fund the government for the balance of Biden's term so we don't have to worry about this crap anymore.

Just on optics alone, the GOP would be wise to jettison Santos while they are at it.

[Anonymous]

did McCarthy have the shortest time fame as speaker?
not counting someone who died or resigned?

[Anonymous]

Of note:

[Anonymous]

4 is just a dream. But thanks for including it.

McCarthy will do what he's always done: try to make concessions to the hard right to get their votes again. He lied to them once, apparently, but he'll try again, because that's what he does.

He *might* squeak by with enough Republican votes, because I don't think the Freedom Caucus wants too many rounds of voting. They want to persuade some Democrats to vote for their Speaker pick, which I believe is entirely delusional. The Freedom Caucus might split and Gaetz left out to dry, but he might use that to seek governship in Florida, or become VP pick for Trump. Similar calculus for MTG. They're performing for MAGA.

McCarthy will also put out feelers to find out the price of a few Democratic votes. It will be steep, so probably won't happen. But this is what used to be called a "Mexican stand-off" , or a fight where everyone has a lot to lose - the far left does not want to work with McCarthy.

It's too hard to predict at the moment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Of note:

[twitter]Also reported by Fox:
https://twitter.com/jacquiheinrich/status/1708525948629406036?s=46&t=kf1qYlCXQnKgUhJWEIu2vg[/twitter]

[Anonymous]

Me, I don't much care what happens to McCarthy. He's the 3rd Republican in a row to prostrate himself before the conservatives because he coveted the gavel.

The GOP is slowly facing a day of reckoning, as it realizes it can't win majorities without these nutjobs, but it can't govern with them. But this has been going on since Boehner. And so maybe another few Speaker wannabees need to FAFO before the lesson is learned.

[Anonymous]

For now #1. Maybe an attempt at #2 but not for long. They still have to do their best to screw up the full year appropriations bills. Next year is when they will fully implode.

[Anonymous]

I must say its delicious to watch the GOP make such fools of themselves.

[jsteele]

I forgot the other point I wanted to make. Trump was in favor of a shutdown and is probably opposed to the CR that was approved (though I haven't seen his response yet). If McCarthy has to rely on Democratic votes, Trump will blow a sprocket. So, this whole thing could end up in a McCarthy/Trump split.

[Anonymous]

#3. McCarthy is going to keep his speakership. The Republicans are splintered, but there is zero chance that any of them are going to vote for Jeffries (or any other Democratic speaker). However, McCarthy has shown that he will not cave to Gaetz and the HFC and he would rather negotiate with the Democrats than give Gaetz one inch. So, McCarthy has already shown that he'll negotiate with the Democrats and that is more than any other candidate will give them, so they'll support him as long as they get concessions. At this point, to save his job, McCarthy will be looking for bipartisan support for any actions and there will be newfound negotiations between the aisles so that both parties will get something (although likely the Democrats will get slightly more than the Republicans).

The only other scenario is that the Democrats sit back and watch, Gaetz ousts McCarthy and the House shuts down until one of the parties gives in and selects the position above. But right now, Gaetz and McCarthy are probably the only two that will not cave or give the other one fraction of an inch.

[Anonymous]

I suspect GOP were willing to pass CR because of the upcoming VA elections. Had gov shut down it would have been wipe out. Let’s see what happens for Kevin. The whole MAGA vs. team normal is a joke. They are all just lesser degrees of horrible.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:I forgot the other point I wanted to make. Trump was in favor of a shutdown and is probably opposed to the CR that was approved (though I haven't seen his response yet). If McCarthy has to rely on Democratic votes, Trump will blow a sprocket. So, this whole thing could end up in a McCarthy/Trump split.

On that note, if I were Dem leadership I would include a complete denouncement of Trump as part of the conditions to support McCarthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Of note:

Could they perhaps apply that kind of rigor to the Supreme Court?