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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
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A little while back - Economist / YouGov: Harris: 49% Trump: 45% Other: 6%
Same pollster a week back: Harris: 48% Trump: 45% Other: 7% https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national 538 site rates Yougov in the highest category, receiving the maximum possible weight in their averages. But not in RCP yet. Could they be waiting for the next Rasmussen to keep the average margin as low as possible? Every other poll since Oct 8 (excluding Activote that both RCP and 270towin exclude). Cygnal: Harris leads 50-47, compared to 49-47 in a poll released on 9/11. Redfield and Wilton (the Telegraph): Harris 48-46, same as a week back. Reuters/Ipsos: Harris 51:49, narrowed from 50-44 a week back. NY Times/Siena: Harris 49-46, compared to 47-47 on 9/19. Squinting very hard but failing to see any movement against Harris. If anything, it's a slight movement in her favor in national polls. For swing states, the NYT polltracker that weights polls by quality shows slight movement toward her in 3 out of 7 states, and toward Trump in other 4. But all movements are <1 and state polls can lag national polls in picking up changes, since they typically take longer to field. Will be interesting to watch the next few days. Overall, my hunch is that the race is pretty much frozen and barring some big events, it's about GOTV, enthusiasm and small mood shifts now. |
Anonymous
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Quinnipiac, not a right wing pollster, just recorded a 9 point (!!!) swing in Michigan for Trump and 3 point swings for Trump in Michigan and PA. The vibes are not good for Harris and from every metric Republicans early voting and vote by mail campaigns are crushing 2016 and 2020.
But please gaslight everyone into thinking Harris is running a great campaign when the RCP average for her in Michigan is 6 points behind Biden in 2020 and 7 points behind Clinton in 2016. |
Anonymous
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Help me please.
I see lots of posts about ballot requests being “republican” or “democratic.” But how is it possible to know who the ballot requester is voting for? |
Anonymous
Because in some places they register by party. In other places like Virginia they don’t so people are modeling by what area the requests are coming from and how R or D that area is. |
Anonymous
That we do not know, but they can say which party someone is registered for. |
Anonymous
They're a good pollster but it's one poll. You need to see more than that before deciding this is a trend. It's just a sampling and could be outlier...or not. |
Anonymous
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Trump is losing 18-34 age group by most likely 2-1, so it a poll tells me they are 50-50
I don’t think is truthful. |
Anonymous
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No they’re not because he was down big in the polls in 2016 and 2020 on RCP. He drastically outperformed them both times. The 2022 comparisons hold no water because Trump was not on the ballot. Celebrity and spectacle matter. Bread and circuses. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
It’s a bunk poll. They messed up their sample weighting in October. No way there was a 13 point flip toward Trump in one month in Michigan among 18-34. |
Anonymous
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Again, elections where Trump is not on the ballot are not comparable. Compare RCP averages in 2020, where they were only overweighted in swing states in Trump’s favor in GA. In every other swing state they were either 100% on the money (PA and NV) or overweighted in Biden’s favor (Wisc, Mich, and NC) and sometimes by a lot (6 point difference in polling in Wisconsin, where Trump was shown down by 6.7 and only lost by .7). The fact of the matter is that Harris way down in RCP polls compared to Biden and Clinton at the same point in time and if history is any example, Trump gains a lot of steam in October and has historically closed large polling gaps. The wind is at his back now. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
Then Taylor Swift endorsed. |
Anonymous
| What's going to save Harris despite these polls is the far superior ground game and GOTV operations of the left. The reality is the right just isn't organized in the same way. |