2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.

When the aggregators are using the GOP junk polls, the result it junk, which is what you are citing. If you aggregate the "A rated" polls only, you get a different result. also, polling is not what any9one should be focused on right now, but rather the early voting/GOTV which is what Harris is doing.

[Anonymous]

also, this isn't polling per se - but it doesn't suggest a red wave year, does it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.

When the aggregators are using the GOP junk polls, the result it junk, which is what you are citing. If you aggregate the "A rated" polls only, you get a different result. also, polling is not what any9one should be focused on right now, but rather the early voting/GOTV which is what Harris is doing.

Real Clear Politics does not use “garbage polls.” What garbage polls are they using? Atlas Intel? Bloomberg? The NYT?

And Trump has the founder of Tesla and the new US space program running logistics and tech for his GOTV program. I would be bullish on his chances to outperform his GOTV efforts in 2016 in 2020 because of that.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.

RCP used junk polls to predict that this current Senate, which is 51-49 D, would be 53-47 R after the 2022 election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So what’s real? These polls or all the previous ones on this thread insisting that the Harris campaign is panicking?

What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap.

+1
It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald.

2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes.

How does this compare to 2020. Dems are more likely to vote early or vote by mail. Election Day voting skews Republican. I’m not sure if this lead is enough that Kamala will win. Also, National votes are completely irrelevant, what does this look like if you break if you only include swing states?

I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore about D’s being more likely to vote early or by mail. R’s have been encouraging early voting this year as well. So I think it’s more even in terms of the parties this election vs. 2020 and earlier. I’ll be voting for Harris on Election Day and I think I’m fairly typical of suburban voters. Why drive out of my way to the county government center and possibly wait in line to vote early when I’ve never waited more than 5 minutes max on Election Day at my usual voting site, an elementary school within walking distance of my house?

A big difference between 2020 and 2024 that no one talks about is that the 2024 GOTV effort for Trump is being led by Elon Musk, with all the AI and tech that comes with that. Dems are really going to be shocked with the early voting and turnout game this time around. Elon is paying people $47/hour to go door to door in swing states for Trump and I can guarantee he’s targeting voters much more efficiently than Trump did in 2016 and 2020. Republicans are not shying away from practices like ballot harvesting this time around. They’re playing for keeps.

1) you actually believe these people will be paid?
2) what he offered violates US Federal election law

Paying campaign staffers is not an election law violation. What are you talking about?

Read what Elon offered. It wasn't "paying campaign staffers" as you falsely assert.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So what’s real? These polls or all the previous ones on this thread insisting that the Harris campaign is panicking?

What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap.

+1
It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald.

2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes.

How does this compare to 2020. Dems are more likely to vote early or vote by mail. Election Day voting skews Republican. I’m not sure if this lead is enough that Kamala will win. Also, National votes are completely irrelevant, what does this look like if you break if you only include swing states?

I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore about D’s being more likely to vote early or by mail. R’s have been encouraging early voting this year as well. So I think it’s more even in terms of the parties this election vs. 2020 and earlier. I’ll be voting for Harris on Election Day and I think I’m fairly typical of suburban voters. Why drive out of my way to the county government center and possibly wait in line to vote early when I’ve never waited more than 5 minutes max on Election Day at my usual voting site, an elementary school within walking distance of my house?

A big difference between 2020 and 2024 that no one talks about is that the 2024 GOTV effort for Trump is being led by Elon Musk, with all the AI and tech that comes with that. Dems are really going to be shocked with the early voting and turnout game this time around. Elon is paying people $47/hour to go door to door in swing states for Trump and I can guarantee he’s targeting voters much more efficiently than Trump did in 2016 and 2020. Republicans are not shying away from practices like ballot harvesting this time around. They’re playing for keeps.

I do worry about what shenanigans Musk and Thiel are up to behind the scenes. Two things help me sleep at night
1 - Musk spent a boatload trying to unseat the Democratic DA in Austin and lost.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/elon-musk-texas-da-jose-garza-oust-atempt-206db043?mod=hp_lead_pos9
2 - With as many republicans as I know voting for Harris, I wonder if their GOTV efforts will backfire.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

OK, but that tweet showing her having the most + doesn't make sense with what he stated.

He's counting H+3 nationally as a Trump win in swing states, instead of considering it Tossup as reputable journalists do, unlike unemployed MAGAs.

Biden won by 4.5. He won Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania by less than 1.5. So a 1.5 improvement by Trump in 2020 makes him the winner.
It is reasonable to think that H+3 favors Trump slightly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.

RCP used junk polls to predict that this current Senate, which is 51-49 D, would be 53-47 R after the 2022 election.

I notice how people trying to show R bias in polls only show elections that Trump is not running in. Trump is outperforming Rs in Senate races by more than 10 points in some states. Look at how he over-performed in 2016 and 2020. Those are the comparisons, not elections where he wasn’t on the ballot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

+1
I posted early voting data upthread this morning and while I was searching I did see that in Virginia, there are several Republican counties in which the early voting numbers are up relative to 2020. But this is Trump’s third time out, there were a number of Haley primary voters who were trying to let the GOP know that they have had enough MAGA. There are a lot of people fed up with the GOP’s crimes and wheel spinning. I don’t know how all those people are voting, obviously, but the Pennsylvania 10th and the Fairbanks mayor, along with Democrats outstripping the polling everywhere since Dobbs… if I were a Republican, I would stop wrapping myself in the cozy blanket of friendly polling and would look around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:



Oh what is is this GOTV AI that Elon brings to the table?

The cult of Elon is just imagining things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

OK, but that tweet showing her having the most + doesn't make sense with what he stated.

He's counting H+3 nationally as a Trump win in swing states, instead of considering it Tossup as reputable journalists do, unlike unemployed MAGAs.

Biden won by 4.5. He won Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania by less than 1.5. So a 1.5 improvement by Trump in 2020 makes him the winner.
It is reasonable to think that H+3 favors Trump slightly.

The only thing that I can conclude, with certainty, from your statements is that you are not a statistician.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.

When the aggregators are using the GOP junk polls, the result it junk, which is what you are citing. If you aggregate the "A rated" polls only, you get a different result. also, polling is not what any9one should be focused on right now, but rather the early voting/GOTV which is what Harris is doing.

Real Clear Politics does not use “garbage polls.” What garbage polls are they using? Atlas Intel? Bloomberg? The NYT?

And Trump has the founder of Tesla and the new US space program running logistics and tech for his GOTV program. I would be bullish on his chances to outperform his GOTV efforts in 2016 in 2020 because of that.

Add onto the GOTV efforts that Palantir founder Peter Thiel is a die hard MAGA supporter. Google what Palantir does and then apply that to GOTV efforts, especially paired with what tech and AI Elon brings to the table.

Oh what is is this GOTV AI that Elon brings to the table?

MAGA fever dreams.