2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Every time that desperate Daughtery spamming troll posts, I feel a little more comfortable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

He's assuming that H+3 is a Trump EC win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So what’s real? These polls or all the previous ones on this thread insisting that the Harris campaign is panicking?

What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap.

+1
It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald.

2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes.

How does this compare to 2020. Dems are more likely to vote early or vote by mail. Election Day voting skews Republican. I’m not sure if this lead is enough that Kamala will win. Also, National votes are completely irrelevant, what does this look like if you break if you only include swing states?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So what’s real? These polls or all the previous ones on this thread insisting that the Harris campaign is panicking?

What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap.

+1
It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald.

2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes.

How does this compare to 2020. Dems are more likely to vote early or vote by mail. Election Day voting skews Republican. I’m not sure if this lead is enough that Kamala will win. Also, National votes are completely irrelevant, what does this look like if you break if you only include swing states?

Florida R:38 D:42 Other:20
Georgia: R:36 D:52 Other:12
North Carolina: R:26 D:38 Other:36
Virginia: R:38 D:54 Other:8

Florida is almost certainly a win for Republicans given the current numbers. Georgia looks like it could swing either way and Virginia looks surprisingly close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

But the polls showing Trump leading are junk polls from low rated pollsters with low reliability factors.

Insider advantage 95th
Trafalgar 279th
Atlas Intel 22nd (the only decently rated pollster that shows Trump leading)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

No way ActiVote can be wrong: https://abcnews.go.com/538/smartphone-app-conduct-political-polls/story?id=113417701

Let's have a gander at respected, reputable, unbiased, and visibly identified owner of @polllwatch2020 's tweets

I don't know why Twitter shows me only 2020 tweets, since PP found a 2024 tweet:

@PollWatch2020
·
Aug 30, 2020
1). BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:

National Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45

Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42
Show more
PollWatch
@PollWatch2020


(Trump lost)

Aug 28, 2020
Trump got 8 percent of black vote in 2016. I’ve been predicting 11-13 percent in 2020. I’m thinking he could get 14-16 percent now.
PollWatch
@PollWatch2020

(CNN exit polling said 12%)

Nov 8, 2020
Conceding WI, MI, and PA with its current rampant fraud means conceding these states in 2024. Think they will change if there are no consequences this time?
PollWatch
@PollWatch2020

(Ahem.)

Aug 28, 2020
Rich Baris: "Democrats are in a complete and total panic right now."
PollWatch
@PollWatch2020

(Democrats won.)


Aug 28, 2020
Heads will explode. Trump up in Michigan.

(Trump lost Michigan.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

Yes, that infamous left wing bias that reality has.
There are more F voters than M, and more D voters than R.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

Yes, that infamous left wing bias that reality has.
There are more F voters than M, and more D voters than R.

Unfortunately, Trump is going to win the election. The Virginia numbers for early voting are a very bad omen for Dems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

But the polls showing Trump leading are junk polls from low rated pollsters with low reliability factors.

Insider advantage 95th
Trafalgar 279th
Atlas Intel 22nd (the only decently rated pollster that shows Trump leading)

And yet, these Republican/Trump-biased posters were the most accurate of 2020.

https://atlasintel.org/media/atlasintel-is-confirmed-as-the-most-accurate-pollster-of-the-2020-presidential-election

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

OK, but that tweet showing her having the most + doesn't make sense with what he stated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm confuesd.. those polls shows mostly Harris +.

A. National polls don't matter.
B. Where she is winning, there's a lot of oversampling being done. Look at the breakdown of M/F and D/R. Of course you're going to get skewed results.

OK, but that tweet showing her having the most + doesn't make sense with what he stated.

He's counting H+3 nationally as a Trump win in swing states, instead of considering it Tossup as reputable journalists do, unlike unemployed MAGAs.

[Anonymous]

There is bunch of bots or paid Russian trolls posting a series of tweets pushing pro-Trump propaganda here. I recall seeing the same in 2020. Unemployment rate is 4.1% in the US, but much higher in Russia.

I have no idea why RCP has become the go-to site for even mainstream commentators, given that they biased in terms of what polls they include, when they include, and how they sort the polls, all of which bias the simple unweighted average from the last 10 polls in one direction. Here is an alternative site that takes the same simple averaging approach, but including a much wider range of publicly available polls and also allow the topline result of each poll to be compared easily with the previous round of the same poll. RCP includes the extremely biased Rasmussen but not the likes of Morning Consult and Redfield and Wiltern.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/#google_vignette .

Clearly, the race is pretty much where it was 2 weeks back. Partly because of not enough state polling by pollsters, while nationally the average lead of ~3 points for Harris holds steady. If anything, the most reputed pollsters like NYT/Siena have found some movement toward here relative their last poll.

For PA, which the random X posters and bots are going nuts about, the last 6 polls have Harris leading in 4, Trump in 1, and 1 tied. Out of the last 3, she leads in 2 and Trump in 1. Insider Advantage is the only poll since Oct 1 that has Trump ahead (49-47). But IA also had him ahead on Sept 17 (50-48) - rather inconveniently for MAGA posters. There's been no gain for Trump since Sept 17 even if you were to swear by IA (ignoring their low rating on most poll aggregator sites). https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania
For fun do compare the polls included here with those on RCP, and ask why Republican pollster Trafalgar is included in RCP, but not 3 others, including AARP and a firm that does polling for the Telegraph!

Similar pattern for national polls. Harris' lead is stable in the 2.5-3 range and has been so for several weeks. For every odd poll that shows a Trump lead or tie, there are 5 others that show the opposite, including in this week. Even RCP cannot bring the Harris national lead down to below 2 for several weeks now since there are just aren't enough polls to push a different narrative. Out of 9 national polls that have come out since Oct 7, only 1 shows a tie (Yahoo/Yougov), which must have been shared a million times on X. The other 8 show Harris leads between 2 and 5 points. A lead of 3+ points makes a Trump electoral college win almost impossible statistically speaking.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national

The race remains close. But the desperate attempts to push a narrative of pro-Trump movement in polls is laughable. Or maybe it's smarter than we think, trying to create a narrative of "winning" which, if nothing else, can be used to create a post-election narrative of "stolen".

I have nothing to say to the Bots, Russian trolls, or diehard MAGAs. But since this is a polling thread (and not one of the dumpster fires like the other threads), my long post is just to "ground-truth" a bit what's going on in the polls. Non-MAGAs must not fall for the tricks employed to make you panic. In this close race, I would rather be Harris than Trump trying to figure out how to find the narrow(ing) path to victory while losing the popular vote by 3. And finally, even if you like simple averages (as opposed to weighted or modeled aggregators like 538 or the Economist), ignore RCP and look at a more neutral site.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So what’s real? These polls or all the previous ones on this thread insisting that the Harris campaign is panicking?

What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap.

+1
It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald.

2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes.

How does this compare to 2020. Dems are more likely to vote early or vote by mail. Election Day voting skews Republican. I’m not sure if this lead is enough that Kamala will win. Also, National votes are completely irrelevant, what does this look like if you break if you only include swing states?

I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore about D’s being more likely to vote early or by mail. R’s have been encouraging early voting this year as well. So I think it’s more even in terms of the parties this election vs. 2020 and earlier. I’ll be voting for Harris on Election Day and I think I’m fairly typical of suburban voters. Why drive out of my way to the county government center and possibly wait in line to vote early when I’ve never waited more than 5 minutes max on Election Day at my usual voting site, an elementary school within walking distance of my house?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What Democrat is actually sharing their private polling with right-wing hack and sex pest Mark Halperin?

You don’t need private polling to know that Harris is 1) drastically undeperforming Biden and Clinton in swing state polls and 2)trending downward in most of the swing states in the past 2-3 weeks. Go in Real Clear Politics and look for yourself.