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Political Discussion
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What real is early voting and newly registered voter numbers. What is real is an enormous number of boots on the ground documented in Minivan data (democrats canvassing app). What’s real is the huge fundraising gap. |
+1 It’s not polling but I’d rather be Harris than Donald. 2,763,286 votes cast nationally so far, of which 54% are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans and 16% other (some states of course don’t have registered parties for voters). 18,639,242 ballots have been requested so far of which 48% are Democrats, 30% Republican and 22% other. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote So that’s a bunch of votes most likely banked for Harris already, and that’s better than any poll, many of which seem like they’re underestimating Democratic energy and votes. |
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No way ActiVote can be wrong: https://abcnews.go.com/538/smartphone-app-conduct-political-polls/story?id=113417701 |
| a bunch more garbage GOP polls, though the Cook Report, which is more mainstream, for the WI senate seems like an outlier. |
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Reuters/Ipsos has Harris +7
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/09/harris-trump-lead-reuters-poll/75584172007/ In general, these are all over the place. We’ll know in Nov. |