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Had never heard of the "Democracy Institute" so I googled them. They predicted a Trump win in 2020 and their expertise is in measuring "shy Trump voters." So they must be weighting the heck out of the projected MAGA vote. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2020/10/13/only-one-poll-shows-trump-leading-i-interviewed-the-polls-director/ |
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Everything is relative. Compare to numbers at the bottom of that graph. Democrats were up 550,000 two years ago, and now it is 325000. It was 680000 lead four years ago when Biden won by 80000. If this reduced margin is only party switches and dropoffs by the 300000 registered Dems who voted for Trump four years ago, then Dems are in good shape. If on the other hand Trump does 600000 votes better than the registration numbers Trump wins the state and the Presidency. |