2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

+1 Yep. That's about right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Y'all keep hyping these trash polls.

They do, for some reason.

[Anonymous]

Instead of underestimating Republicans like so many posters here assume, some pollsters may be underestimating Democrats.

“Over the last month, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.

In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.

This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Polymarket is a poll for the gambling industry. It's already been discredited. Post a more convincing poll.

Not only that. But Polymarket is owned and controlled by Peter Thiel, the closet Republican that was behind JD Vance's and Blake Masters' rises to political fame. He has been throwing millions of dollars into Republican politics for the last several elections. He is also the reason why Nate Silver is no longer reliable. So, both Polymarket and Nate Silver are very Republican biased information and should be treated as such. They are not impartial nor have any integrity to what they distribute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Butler PA rally with Elon, and reminding PA of the assassination attempt, is going to swing PA to Trump. Subpar hurricane response and Trump reuniting with Kemp is going to swing GA and NC. The ripple effect of Appalachian anger over storm response is going to enrage rural VA voters and VA might be in play cause Trump’s turnout in those areas is going to be far better than 2016 or 2020.

Bookmark this and bank on it.

Pennsylvanians not only don't care about Musk, but dislike him. Musk showing up in Pennsylvania is not going to change any support.

The people in Pennsylvania who care about where the assassination attempt was or care about the fact that there was an assassination attempt are from the middle of the state that has always been Trump/MAGA territory. But it's a small population for Pennsylvania. 48% of the state population (6.25M out of 12.97M) live in the Philadelphia metro area. Another 19% of the state population (2.46M) live in the Pittsburgh metro area. And both of those areas lean pretty heavily left. Additionally, there are about another 10% of the state in the Scranton, Allentown, Erie and State College areas of Pennsylvania, all areas that lean pretty heavily left.

These are the ones that elected Josh Shapiro by 792K votes, Fetterman by 263K votes, Wolf by 855K votes.

Yes, the Democratic advantage has slide from about 600K in 2020 to about 350K in 2024, but the electorate still leans pretty heavily Democratic. And every time Trump opens his mouth (or Vance does) they antagonize more and more left leaning voters. Biden won by 81K votes. I think Harris will lose a bunch, but should still win by 30K-45K votes. I doubt it will be closer than that.

The Philadelphia Inquirer wants a word:

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/inq2/philadelphia-working-class-voters-republican-20241001.html

In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans

Lopez embodies one of Democrats’ biggest problems in Pennsylvania: working-class voters in Philadelphia, a once reliable voting bloc for the party, have drifted right in recent years. And they’ve been disproportionately affected by rising prices over the last several years, an issue many blame Democrats for.

It’s one of the biggest potential areas of concern for Harris, whose quest for the White House may hinge on Pennsylvania, where President Joe Biden four years ago defeated Trump by just 80,000 votes.
Harris’ best opportunity to run up her vote total is in Philly, where 20% of the state’s Democrats live, but where Democrats bled more votes in 2020 than in any other county. Biden performed worse than Clinton in 41 of the city’s 66 political wards.

The shift was most stark in working-class communities. An Inquirer analysis of election results found that, in 2020, Democrats lost the most ground in neighborhoods where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest.

Harris is losing working class voters across the country and gaining seniors. Seniors are the most reliable voting bloc.

It's doubtful that most seniors in NC, FL, and GA are voting for Harris/Walz.

I think you'll be surprised. My mother is a senior living in Central Florida. In 2020, Biden won her county (Seminole County) marking the first time a Democratic candidate had won the county since 1946. The seniors in the Orlando metropolitan area are definitely sliding to the Democratic ticket. They are upset with how Trump handled the pandemic, endangering many seniors, and they are upset with Trump's proposals for Social Security and Medicare. They are upset with DeSantis. And there are many, many youth voters including the many who are going to college in Florida who are pro-reproductive rights and abortion rights are on the ballot with DeSantis championing the states draconian 6-week rule.

There is a reason the Florida is a danger for Trump for the first time in many years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

RMG is a Scott Rasmussen poll repackaged. Rasmussen is Republican partisan and is obscure about how he conducts polls, with little control over matching polls to electorate or likely voters. Not a very reliable poll.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

RMG is a Scott Rasmussen poll repackaged. Rasmussen is Republican partisan and is obscure about how he conducts polls, with little control over matching polls to electorate or likely voters. Not a very reliable poll.

So you're saying ONLY liberal-leaning media polls are to be believed? Such messed up logic!!!! If Rasmussen was "left wing", then you'd believe it? Covering your ears, only hearing what you want to hear. LOL

[Anonymous]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/trump-women-economy-poll-00182451

By Elena Schneider

Not only do women prefer Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points, according to a new poll. They are starting to give Harris the edge on one of his strongest issues — the economy.

An American University poll, shared first with POLITICO, found that a majority of women trust Harris over Trump to address inflation and bring down the cost of living. Another 46 percent prefer Harris over Trump to handle the economy, while 38 percent prefer Trump on it. Nearly two-thirds of the women surveyed said inflation and the economy were the most important issue for them as they decided on their vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

RMG is a Scott Rasmussen poll repackaged. Rasmussen is Republican partisan and is obscure about how he conducts polls, with little control over matching polls to electorate or likely voters. Not a very reliable poll.

So you're saying ONLY liberal-leaning media polls are to be believed? Such messed up logic!!!! If Rasmussen was "left wing", then you'd believe it? Covering your ears, only hearing what you want to hear. LOL

No. I also discount Morning Consult polls that lean left for the same reason.

I try to look for non-partisan, non-leaning polls as much as possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

RMG is a Scott Rasmussen poll repackaged. Rasmussen is Republican partisan and is obscure about how he conducts polls, with little control over matching polls to electorate or likely voters. Not a very reliable poll.

So you're saying ONLY liberal-leaning media polls are to be believed? Such messed up logic!!!! If Rasmussen was "left wing", then you'd believe it? Covering your ears, only hearing what you want to hear. LOL

No, just the ones that collude with a campaign for targeted and skewed results.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Instead of underestimating Republicans like so many posters here assume, some pollsters may be underestimating Democrats.

“Over the last month, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.

In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.

This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.”

BTW, Nate Cohn's Twitter profile pic is one of the few visually accurate political maps that exist in the world. He's one of the few pundits who is a serious scholar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Polymarket is a poll for the gambling industry. It's already been discredited. Post a more convincing poll.

Not only that. But Polymarket is owned and controlled by Peter Thiel, the closet Republican that was behind JD Vance's and Blake Masters' rises to political fame. He has been throwing millions of dollars into Republican politics for the last several elections. He is also the reason why Nate Silver is no longer reliable. So, both Polymarket and Nate Silver are very Republican biased information and should be treated as such. They are not impartial nor have any integrity to what they distribute.

The Nate Silver thing was debunked over a month ago