2025 Girls Lax WCAC + ISL Outlook

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Predictions for SJC - Ireton?

Can Ireton manage to salvage a victory in what has been a relatively disappointing season?

What is going on with Ireton this season?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predictions for SJC - Ireton?

Can Ireton manage to salvage a victory in what has been a relatively disappointing season?

What is going on with Ireton this season?

They have a few top tier players. Are they hurt??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SSSAS has looked the best and been most consistent team in the ISL this season. Still have to play Visi next week, but they will be favored. Those are facts.

FYI - those "facts" are called opinions.

Are they now? Let's test that:

Laxnumbers objective, math-based rating:

1. SSSAS - 92.77 (Plus head to head wins vs: SR and Potomac)
2. SR - 91.45 (Head to head losses vs: Potomac and SSSAS)
3. Potomac - 91.39 (Head to head win vs SR; Head to head loss: SSSAS)
4. Visi - 89.95 (No head to head results yet)

1.32 is a pretty big gap in the ratings math between 1st and 2nd; the other 3 are all within 0.5. Notably, lax numbers rating also has SSSAS above Good Counsel.

Why does anyone think laxnumbers rankings are realistic? Because it uses math?

The math used is based on a strength of schedule that is opaque. Then adds it to a goal differential to come up with a ranking. Head to head doesn’t factor at all but how can it not?

A team can go undefeated against a lot of great teams and win by two or three goals per game. This objective ranking can see another team with the same schedule lose to the other team and others but have several 6-7 goal wins. The math will favor the second team. I will always take the team who never loses and beat the other team over one that has lost head to head and any other game.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SSSAS has looked the best and been most consistent team in the ISL this season. Still have to play Visi next week, but they will be favored. Those are facts.

FYI - those "facts" are called opinions.

Are they now? Let's test that:

Laxnumbers objective, math-based rating:

1. SSSAS - 92.77 (Plus head to head wins vs: SR and Potomac)
2. SR - 91.45 (Head to head losses vs: Potomac and SSSAS)
3. Potomac - 91.39 (Head to head win vs SR; Head to head loss: SSSAS)
4. Visi - 89.95 (No head to head results yet)

1.32 is a pretty big gap in the ratings math between 1st and 2nd; the other 3 are all within 0.5. Notably, lax numbers rating also has SSSAS above Good Counsel.

Why does anyone think laxnumbers rankings are realistic? Because it uses math?

The math used is based on a strength of schedule that is opaque. Then adds it to a goal differential to come up with a ranking. Head to head doesn’t factor at all but how can it not?

A team can go undefeated against a lot of great teams and win by two or three goals per game. This objective ranking can see another team with the same schedule lose to the other team and others but have several 6-7 goal wins. The math will favor the second team. I will always take the team who never loses and beat the other team over one that has lost head to head and any other game.

I don't think anyone thinks math is infallible. It's "probable" not facts.

However, it's better indicator of what is likely than a homer dad who thinks his kid will tip the balance. Your kid is really good, just not good enough to beat Saints by herself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Predictions for SJC - Ireton?

Can Ireton manage to salvage a victory in what has been a relatively disappointing season?

Think it will be a very competitive game and SJC squeezes it out on their home field.

[Anonymous]

I'm a partisan, and my daughter imagines me to be the king of the jinx, so I won't be hazarding a prediction.

[Anonymous]

SJC 15 BI 10

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SJC 15 BI 10

Final?

[Anonymous]

Final

[Anonymous]

Collegiate beats Potomac 13-11

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How is the ISL race shaping up? Potomac seems primed to make a run. They have a ton of Capital Blue players.

My take on the top 4:

1. Stone Ridge (clear favorite) -- Several top players and more depth than any team in the ISL;

2. Preseason Tie -- Potomac, with loaded 2025 class, and some nice contributors in 26 and 27, will fight it out with SSSAS assuming the Saints get their injured players back at full strength

4. Visi -- Lost a lot to gradation, but may have the best single player in the DC area now (class of '26) with the 3 time MET player of the year from GC graduating.

You are all clearly delusional. If anyone lost people at graduation it was stone ridge who also lost a lot of key players to injuries (probably a coaches issue if all these girls keep getting hurt). I think we all need a clear reality check that Potomac will never be great only averagely good. Saints is also very overestimated this season. Visi is the strongest team BY FAR in the isl. Lets all keep in mind that stone ridge has already lost to saints and Potomac so ranking them 1 is out right absurd and insane. You need to look deeply into the teams and see what they truly are- team with alot of average player or a team with all top players that know how to work together well (visi).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Collegiate beats Potomac 13-11

Embarrassing for Potomac.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SJC 15 BI 10

Not SJC's best game. Played better vs PVI but secured the 2 seed at minimum for playoffs. Ireton vs PVI should be a battle for the 3 seed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Collegiate beats Potomac 13-11

Embarrassing for Potomac.

Collegiate is no joke this year. They can play.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Collegiate beats Potomac 13-11

Embarrassing for Potomac.

Collegiate lost by 1 to GC and by 2 to SSSAS and played STAB tight twice.

A scalp was coming for them.