Arizona is a disaster

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP, but that nurse seems a little dramatic. Other Tucson medical staff have commented on his post that it's not as extreme as he's painting.

You got a link for that?

Here's a doctor at the same hospital

At Arizona’s Tucson Medical Center on Monday, just a single intensive care unit (ICU) bed designated for COVID-19 patients was available, with the other 19 beds filled, a hospital representative said.

“ICU to be expanded, hopefully, in coming days,” Dr. Steven Oscherwitz, an infectious disease expert at the hospital, said in a tweet on Monday night. “Not sure where people needing ICU care will be able to go, since most AZ (Arizona) hospitals are pretty full now.”

DP, The nurse sounds crazy because the ifr for covid, even for patients in the icu, is far less than 100 percent or the "slim chance" of survival as he describes it.

The doctor is saying the covid icu wards are too small and they need to take beds from the regular icu. That makes sense, and hardly means everyone is going to die. As of a few days ago, AZ was still allowing elective surgeries, which is insane if they truly have capacity concerns.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

Re-reading -- that bolded "per capita" shouldn't be there -- that's a total #.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

a few things:
-Arizona has far less hospital beds/ICU beds per capita than NYC. Plus NYC added all sorts of beds during the peak. They brought in several thousand nurses and physicians from elsewhere.
-NYC implemented MAJOR societal change with the spike. They basically shut down the city. Manhattan was a ghost town. The MAJOR issue is that Arizona is doing nothing.
Clinicians are handling things right now. It's the fact that the cases and the hospitalizations are growing daily and nothing is being done to stop them is what is alarming.

I'm the OP and my sibling who is the ER doctor is about the last sensationalistic/dramatic person on the planet. If she/he is saying "it's getting crazy" then it's getting crazy.
They had a single ICU open bed yesterday evening (I've been texting nightly). That's in a major Phoenix Medical Center with 4-5 ICUs. They're doing all sorts of things to
get further beds (cancelling surgeries, shifting patients down in care, diverting ER admits) but again, the problem is that nothing is being done to decrease the cases from rising tomorrow,
the next day, next week, etc.
That is what it very, very concerning to those working in the midst of it. It's not misplaced hysteria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

a few things:
-Arizona has far less hospital beds/ICU beds per capita than NYC. Plus NYC added all sorts of beds during the peak. They brought in several thousand nurses and physicians from elsewhere.
-NYC implemented MAJOR societal change with the spike. They basically shut down the city. Manhattan was a ghost town. The MAJOR issue is that Arizona is doing nothing.
Clinicians are handling things right now. It's the fact that the cases and the hospitalizations are growing daily and nothing is being done to stop them is what is alarming.

I'm the OP and my sibling who is the ER doctor is about the last sensationalistic/dramatic person on the planet. If she/he is saying "it's getting crazy" then it's getting crazy.
They had a single ICU open bed yesterday evening (I've been texting nightly). That's in a major Phoenix Medical Center with 4-5 ICUs. They're doing all sorts of things to
get further beds (cancelling surgeries, shifting patients down in care, diverting ER admits) but again, the problem is that nothing is being done to decrease the cases from rising tomorrow,
the next day, next week, etc.
That is what it very, very concerning to those working in the midst of it. It's not misplaced hysteria.

I don't know what AZ is doing or not doing, and it may be true that they could do more. There have been large public protests for 17 days now in Phoenix. Perhaps that could just possibly have something to do with the outbreak? Is the hospital calling for an end to the protests?

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/video/696496

However, let's not try to portray NY as some paragon of covid response. NY mishandled the situation badly, in many different ways. There have been multiple articles written about the mistakes that NY made, but shoving positive covid patients into nursing homes and making it illegal for the homes to even have those patients tested for coronavirus costs thousands of lives. DeBlasio was still encouraging people to go to the theater and bars in mid-March. They didn't shut down the schools until weeks after it was suggested and other states had already done so, and they never shut down the subway. They limited the number of rail cars they were running on the subway so people were crammed in together, and then waited a couple of months to start cleaning them.

We've all learned a lot from NY's mistakes and more about how the virus is transmitted since March. Yes, masks are probably helpful, but do you blame people for being skeptical, when the "experts" told us that they were not and, in fact, might be harmful? Well, you say, they were lying, because they wanted to reserve masks for medical personnel. Everyone was fine with protestors gathering in large numbers, but suddenly everything else needs to be shut down because the case # is up? Well, ok, you can say this, but if you have no credibility, you have no credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-new-yorks-coronavirus-response-made-the-pandemic-worse-11591908426

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

a few things:
-Arizona has far less hospital beds/ICU beds per capita than NYC. Plus NYC added all sorts of beds during the peak. They brought in several thousand nurses and physicians from elsewhere.
-NYC implemented MAJOR societal change with the spike. They basically shut down the city. Manhattan was a ghost town. The MAJOR issue is that Arizona is doing nothing.
Clinicians are handling things right now. It's the fact that the cases and the hospitalizations are growing daily and nothing is being done to stop them is what is alarming.

I'm the OP and my sibling who is the ER doctor is about the last sensationalistic/dramatic person on the planet. If she/he is saying "it's getting crazy" then it's getting crazy.
They had a single ICU open bed yesterday evening (I've been texting nightly). That's in a major Phoenix Medical Center with 4-5 ICUs. They're doing all sorts of things to
get further beds (cancelling surgeries, shifting patients down in care, diverting ER admits) but again, the problem is that nothing is being done to decrease the cases from rising tomorrow,
the next day, next week, etc.
That is what it very, very concerning to those working in the midst of it. It's not misplaced hysteria.

I don't know what AZ is doing or not doing, and it may be true that they could do more. There have been large public protests for 17 days now in Phoenix. Perhaps that could just possibly have something to do with the outbreak? Is the hospital calling for an end to the protests?

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/video/696496

However, let's not try to portray NY as some paragon of covid response. NY mishandled the situation badly, in many different ways. There have been multiple articles written about the mistakes that NY made, but shoving positive covid patients into nursing homes and making it illegal for the homes to even have those patients tested for coronavirus costs thousands of lives. DeBlasio was still encouraging people to go to the theater and bars in mid-March. They didn't shut down the schools until weeks after it was suggested and other states had already done so, and they never shut down the subway. They limited the number of rail cars they were running on the subway so people were crammed in together, and then waited a couple of months to start cleaning them.

We've all learned a lot from NY's mistakes and more about how the virus is transmitted since March. Yes, masks are probably helpful, but do you blame people for being skeptical, when the "experts" told us that they were not and, in fact, might be harmful? Well, you say, they were lying, because they wanted to reserve masks for medical personnel. Everyone was fine with protestors gathering in large numbers, but suddenly everything else needs to be shut down because the case # is up? Well, ok, you can say this, but if you have no credibility, you have no credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-new-yorks-coronavirus-response-made-the-pandemic-worse-11591908426

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well.

Well. That’s more than a little bit of fear mongering. AZ current new case rate is around 150 new cases per day per million. NY at its peak was around 550 per day per million. NY is down now, but it’s because the virus burned through the vulnerable population and not as many people are showing up at the ER. Remember, most of the charts we see are on a logarithmic scale, so they don’t really reflect the scale of the disparities between places like NY & AZ.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

+1

Yesterday Arizona had 315 new cases per million residents. But you're right, New York had more at their peak so everything's fine.

I didn't say everything's fine. I said that the tweet you quoted is misleading. Besides, I was citing 7 day averages, which is really a more useful number. If you want to pick peak days, Arizona's peak day so far is 321 new cases per million and NY's was 587 per million. Note this is a per capita number for the entire state, and not just NYC. But I guess saying AZ has 54% of the new cases per day that NY did at its peak per capita isn't as exciting. If you want to look at total numbers, AZ's peak has been 2,341 new cases per day and NY's was 11,434, and NY had 646 cases yesterday. But, likewise, I guess you don't get many re-tweets if you announce that AZ's new case rate has finally reached 20% of NY's peak per capita.

Finally, comparing these numbers is still apples and oranges. AZ's positivity rate on tests is 18.83% right now, which isn't great, but at it's peak, NY rate was 41.88%. Want to place a bet on how many cases were actually missed by testing in each state? According to press reports, testing for patients coming into the hospital for other procedures has increased the percentage of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that are being caught. At it's peak, NY was even testing everyone with symptoms.

AZ does need to get this under control, but the people who are circulating misleading data aren't helping that situation, they're just further eroding their credibility.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

a few things:
-Arizona has far less hospital beds/ICU beds per capita than NYC. Plus NYC added all sorts of beds during the peak. They brought in several thousand nurses and physicians from elsewhere.
-NYC implemented MAJOR societal change with the spike. They basically shut down the city. Manhattan was a ghost town. The MAJOR issue is that Arizona is doing nothing.
Clinicians are handling things right now. It's the fact that the cases and the hospitalizations are growing daily and nothing is being done to stop them is what is alarming.

I'm the OP and my sibling who is the ER doctor is about the last sensationalistic/dramatic person on the planet. If she/he is saying "it's getting crazy" then it's getting crazy.
They had a single ICU open bed yesterday evening (I've been texting nightly). That's in a major Phoenix Medical Center with 4-5 ICUs. They're doing all sorts of things to
get further beds (cancelling surgeries, shifting patients down in care, diverting ER admits) but again, the problem is that nothing is being done to decrease the cases from rising tomorrow,
the next day, next week, etc.
That is what it very, very concerning to those working in the midst of it. It's not misplaced hysteria.

They are obviously not taking it very seriously if they are still doing elective surgeries. That stopped on the dmv in mid March and still is not yet taking place in md hospitals as of this week, only at surgery centers, although that will soon change. If there is a capacity issue, they need to stop doing elective procedures that put patients in the icu.

[Anonymous]

Gov Ducey just announced he'll let local govt make their own rules regarding masks. I foresee at least Tucson mandating them immediately.

[Anonymous]

The bottom line is when their morgues are full and they have to use refrigerated trucks then we’ll know it’s a problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gov Ducey just announced he'll let local govt make their own rules regarding masks. I foresee at least Tucson mandating them immediately.

It’s about time.

[Anonymous]

I believe you, OP.

[Anonymous]

If people are blaming this on everyone being indoors in closed houses in the hot AZ summers, this doesn't speak well for the ENTIRE REST OF THE COUNTRY come fall and winter when we all do the same.

[Anonymous]

The vent survival rate in NY was about 10-15%. Does Arizona have different vents?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If people are blaming this on everyone being indoors in closed houses in the hot AZ summers, this doesn't speak well for the ENTIRE REST OF THE COUNTRY come fall and winter when we all do the same.

If we all wore masks R would be less than 1.

But no.

Freedom!