Elrich leads Blair by 6 points according to a new poll

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Voting turnout has been alarmingly low. Very few took advantage of early voting. And very few mail in ballots have been returned.

The MoCo BOE is taking a long time to record ballots as returned. Mail-in turnout is much higher than the numbers suggest.

It might be true but there is no way for you to know this.

In any case, mail voters will likely skew older which would also favor Elrich. Unless there is a huge wave of young voters with high enthusiasm for Riemer who show up on Tuesday, he’s done.

Based on the polling, election day turnout should swing to Blair but the key question will be how many people turn out on a Tuesday in mid-July. My guess is not many.

I called to ask. That’s how I know. They said they’re behind.

The numbers favor Elrich because a higher percentage of people have already voted for him and because he almost certainly has a better turnout operation.

Does he outsource that? Because if it's his own campaign workers, then no. But I keep getting texts from OUR REVOLUTION, the Bernie Bros, to go vote for him. So maybe that's who is helping him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Voting turnout has been alarmingly low. Very few took advantage of early voting. And very few mail in ballots have been returned.

The MoCo BOE is taking a long time to record ballots as returned. Mail-in turnout is much higher than the numbers suggest.

It might be true but there is no way for you to know this.

In any case, mail voters will likely skew older which would also favor Elrich. Unless there is a huge wave of young voters with high enthusiasm for Riemer who show up on Tuesday, he’s done.

Based on the polling, election day turnout should swing to Blair but the key question will be how many people turn out on a Tuesday in mid-July. My guess is not many.

I called to ask. That’s how I know. They said they’re behind.

The numbers favor Elrich because a higher percentage of people have already voted for him and because he almost certainly has a better turnout operation.

Does he outsource that? Because if it's his own campaign workers, then no. But I keep getting texts from OUR REVOLUTION, the Bernie Bros, to go vote for him. So maybe that's who is helping him.

What a lot of people miss about Elrich is that he has deep ties to a lot of community groups that can get people to polls. He’s spent decades working with groups that a lot of people have never heard of.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

I think people are torn. Not that I have specific concerns about Montgomery County, but many, especially older voters, are balancing their concern about COVID —with plans to vote by mail, with their desire to be as certain as possible that their ballots are registered— with plans to vote in person. Also, since I’m assuming that mail-in ballots had to be requested in advance, there are many people who plan to vote that didn’t request ballots in advance for a rescheduled primary election.

I, too, don’t think it’s indicative of one’s likelihood of voting — and also doubt that there’s any correlation between voting in person and the candidate that they plan to vote for. I hope the PP who made the previous comments returns to share their thoughts on this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

That’s interesting. I’m an undecided who’s going for Elrich, in part because the constant emails that I get from Blair’s campaign are a real turn off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

That’s interesting. I’m an undecided who’s going for Elrich, in part because the constant emails that I get from Blair’s campaign are a real turn off.

Fair. I also wish the yard sign wars would end. It’s overwhelming and distracting when I see 20 signs for a candidate followed by 15 for another. I’d be thrilled if all candidates took it easy: mailers, yard signs, etc.

I’m a huge Blair fan because I need county officers to feel more supported. Elrich has really done a number on public safety and our dwindling police force is the result.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

That’s interesting. I’m an undecided who’s going for Elrich, in part because the constant emails that I get from Blair’s campaign are a real turn off.

Fair. I also wish the yard sign wars would end. It’s overwhelming and distracting when I see 20 signs for a candidate followed by 15 for another. I’d be thrilled if all candidates took it easy: mailers, yard signs, etc.

I’m a huge Blair fan because I need county officers to feel more supported. Elrich has really done a number on public safety and our dwindling police force is the result.

Same. Without public safety, we can't get all the other nice things we want. Like reducing poverty, inequities, building businesses, etc. Look at the decline in Silver Spring business over the past four years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

Those undecided haven’t yet voted. If you read the poll, when they only count who has voted Elrich maintains a 6 point lead over Blair. This election is over and if you anti-Elrich people were smart you wouldn’t set such low expectations because he is going to do substantially better than you think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

Hans Riemer will be 100% responsible for re-electing Elrich. I hope people remember that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect. Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home? I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote.

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair.

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich.

Those undecided haven’t yet voted. If you read the poll, when they only count who has voted Elrich maintains a 6 point lead over Blair. This election is over and if you anti-Elrich people were smart you wouldn’t set such low expectations because he is going to do substantially better than you think.

When the poll was taken, barely anyone had voted. Maybe 8,000 in person.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%

Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.

Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.

Voting turnout has been alarmingly low. Very few took advantage of early voting. And very few mail in ballots have been returned.

The MoCo BOE is taking a long time to record ballots as returned. Mail-in turnout is much higher than the numbers suggest.

It might be true but there is no way for you to know this.

In any case, mail voters will likely skew older which would also favor Elrich. Unless there is a huge wave of young voters with high enthusiasm for Riemer who show up on Tuesday, he’s done.

Based on the polling, election day turnout should swing to Blair but the key question will be how many people turn out on a Tuesday in mid-July. My guess is not many.

I called to ask. That’s how I know. They said they’re behind.

The numbers favor Elrich because a higher percentage of people have already voted for him and because he almost certainly has a better turnout operation.

Yeah theyre behind. Don't they send an email when your ballot is processed? I dropped mine at an official drop box on Thursday and no email so far.

[Anonymous]

I’m voting in person for Blair on Election Day. We were independents who switched parties.