Reply to Elrich leads Blair by 6 points according to a new poll

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%[/quote]
Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.[/quote]
Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.
[/quote]

Really? I think the issue is not “less motivated to vote” but, rather that we plan to vote in person on the 19th. Why would you think this would trend against Elrich?  [/quote]

Personally, I think it's the COVID effect.   Why go to a public polling place if you can vote from home?    I don't think this is indicative of likelihood to vote. [/quote]

Fortunately, the data for progress poll broke down its results by likelihood of voting. The only group among whom Blair leads is “might vote.” That’s a real problem for Blair. [b]People who are sympathetic to Elrich are the most reliable primary voters. [/b]I don’t know that Blair inspires people to make time to vote on Tuesday. Riemer comes in third in all categories and could swing the race to Blair if he stopped discouraging his voters from moving to Blair. [/quote]

The changes are stark, though, from the poll results they released on July 7, where Elrich had a 21 point lead over Blair.

Elrich:41
Blair: 20
Riemer: 18
Undecided: 20

Yesterday's poll is:

Elrich: 34
Blair: 34
Riemer: 20
Undecided: 11

Those undecideds are now deciding, and they aren't going for Elrich. [/quote]

That’s interesting. I’m an undecided who’s going for Elrich, in part because the constant emails that I get from Blair’s campaign are a real turn off.  [/quote]

Fair. I also wish the yard sign wars would end. It’s overwhelming and distracting when I see 20 signs for a candidate followed by 15 for another. I’d be thrilled if all candidates took it easy: mailers, yard signs, etc.

[b]I’m a huge Blair fan because I need county officers to feel more supported. Elrich has really done a number on public safety and our dwindling police force is the result[/b].[/quote]  Same.   Without public safety, we can't get all the other nice things we want.   Like reducing poverty, inequities, building businesses, etc.   Look at the decline in Silver Spring business over the past four years.  :(   [/quote]

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