Reply to Elrich leads Blair by 6 points according to a new poll

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1548012096096391168

For reference... Riemer places a distant third at 20%[/quote]
Among people who have already voted, Elrich has a bigger lead.

Elrich: 39
Blair: 35
Riemer: 26

It is completely obvious that Riemer is playing the spoiler here and intentionally so.[/quote]
Interesting that Elrich leads by 6 points among those who have already voted. Pretty consistent with the 6 point lead from prior polling. Makes sense that people who have not yet voted would probably trend against Elrich, but also makes sense that they would be less motivated to vote.
[/quote]

Voting turnout has been alarmingly low.   Very few took advantage of early voting.   And very few mail in ballots have been returned.  [/quote]

The MoCo BOE is taking a long time to record ballots as returned. Mail-in turnout is much higher than the numbers suggest. [/quote]
It might be true but there is no way for you to know this.

In any case, mail voters will likely skew older which would also favor Elrich. Unless there is a huge wave of young voters with high enthusiasm for Riemer who show up on Tuesday, he’s done.

Based on the polling, election day turnout should swing to Blair but the key question will be how many people turn out on a Tuesday in mid-July. My guess is not many. [/quote]

I called to ask. That’s how I know. They said they’re behind.

The numbers favor Elrich because a higher percentage of people have already voted for him and because he almost certainly has a better turnout operation.[/quote]

Yeah theyre behind. Don't they send an email when your ballot is processed? I dropped mine at an official drop box on Thursday and no email so far.[/quote]

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