Official Government Shutdown 2023 Thread

[Anonymous]

I am hoping the government will shut down for two weeks so that I can play golf during that time and still get paid.

[Anonymous]

So, the House votes on the CR on Friday. Gut check time for those folks out there who are rooting against a shut down and the few who are privately rooting for one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, the House votes on the CR on Friday. Gut check time for those folks out there who are rooting against a shut down and the few who are privately rooting for one.

Does it have anything attached to it that would cause the Senate to not approve it if the House does? Or does it not work that way . . .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, the House votes on the CR on Friday. Gut check time for those folks out there who are rooting against a shut down and the few who are privately rooting for one.

Does it have anything attached to it that would cause the Senate to not approve it if the House does? Or does it not work that way . . .

Like a steep budget cuts that go beyond an easier agreement between Republicans and Democrats, and border security provisions?

Yes, yes it does.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am hoping the government will shut down for two weeks so that I can play golf during that time and still get paid.

Saying the quiet part out loud?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on the latest House briefing this am, I’m guessing there will be a shutdown.

prediction event contract at 77% now.

White House is drawing up essential lists. Opm directed to issue guidance.

Does anyone know how often we’ve gotten to this point before and they have worked it out? I can’t remember. I know there’s often shutdown talk and short-term CRs - but what about OPM guidance, etc?

Previous shutdowns don't really relate. There haven't been Congressmen as extreme, rigid and die-hard as the current Freedom Caucus. The whole point is that the federal government is currently being held hostage by a small group of less than 20 extreme Congressmen who are refusing to negotiate in good Faith and a weak speaker who is not willing to use the tools available to him to bypass this small group for fear that he will lose his job.

The Freedom Caucus is a lost cause and they really aren't worth spending the time trying to negotiate with them as they are not willing to negotiate. They are essentially a nuclear option unto themselves. What needs to happen is that McCarthy needs to grow a pair and start to negotiate with the moderate Republicans and the Democrats to see where he can find a middle ground that everyone will both agree to and will also support him retaining the speakership as the lesser of many evils available to them. Once he can find that fine line agreement, then he will have his resolution. But he will have to make a lot of concessions to the Democrats and the moderate Republicans to be able to discount and ignore the unreasonable radical fringe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, the House votes on the CR on Friday. Gut check time for those folks out there who are rooting against a shut down and the few who are privately rooting for one.

See you trolls are pretty obvious. What Fed is going to blow $$$ on golf fees when next paycheck is uncertain.

You really should thing.

[Anonymous]

think!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on the latest House briefing this am, I’m guessing there will be a shutdown.

prediction event contract at 77% now.

White House is drawing up essential lists. Opm directed to issue guidance.

Does anyone know how often we’ve gotten to this point before and they have worked it out? I can’t remember. I know there’s often shutdown talk and short-term CRs - but what about OPM guidance, etc?

Previous shutdowns don't really relate. There haven't been Congressmen as extreme, rigid and die-hard as the current Freedom Caucus. The whole point is that the federal government is currently being held hostage by a small group of less than 20 extreme Congressmen who are refusing to negotiate in good Faith and a weak speaker who is not willing to use the tools available to him to bypass this small group for fear that he will lose his job.

The Freedom Caucus is a lost cause and they really aren't worth spending the time trying to negotiate with them as they are not willing to negotiate. They are essentially a nuclear option unto themselves. What needs to happen is that McCarthy needs to grow a pair and start to negotiate with the moderate Republicans and the Democrats to see where he can find a middle ground that everyone will both agree to and will also support him retaining the speakership as the lesser of many evils available to them. Once he can find that fine line agreement, then he will have his resolution. But he will have to make a lot of concessions to the Democrats and the moderate Republicans to be able to discount and ignore the unreasonable radical fringe.

Dems need a LOT of concessions to vote for a Republican speaker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone figured out whether daycare in federal office buildings will be open? Someone upthread recommended looking at the lapse plans and I've reviewed the current and historic plans for the agency where our daycare is housed as well as agencies where the backup daycares are housed - but none of them mention onsite vendors/tenants or daycare.

The admin at daycare just says they dont know.

This is probably a by-agency thing. Ours stayed open in 2013, I brought my child in a couple times even though I was not excepted because I had no one to watch her for pre-scheduled medical appointments and I was paying for the daycare either way. Not sure if it remained open in 2018/19 as we no longer had a child enrolled.

Not probably, is. There is no full federal government contract for childcare. Each of the childcare centers are separated negotiated by each agency. There may be one or two where one daycare vendor has negotiated a joint agreement with two agencies, but most of these are individual contracts. Each agency is going to have to decide how to handle their childcare contract. Likely whether the childcare remains open will be based on how many excepted or essential personnel are using the services. Some agencies will give partial funding and may have only limited staff flagged as essential and others will provide more funding and more staff will be essential, but it will be agency-by-agency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on the latest House briefing this am, I’m guessing there will be a shutdown.

prediction event contract at 77% now.

White House is drawing up essential lists. Opm directed to issue guidance.

Does anyone know how often we’ve gotten to this point before and they have worked it out? I can’t remember. I know there’s often shutdown talk and short-term CRs - but what about OPM guidance, etc?

Previous shutdowns don't really relate. There haven't been Congressmen as extreme, rigid and die-hard as the current Freedom Caucus. The whole point is that the federal government is currently being held hostage by a small group of less than 20 extreme Congressmen who are refusing to negotiate in good Faith and a weak speaker who is not willing to use the tools available to him to bypass this small group for fear that he will lose his job.

The Freedom Caucus is a lost cause and they really aren't worth spending the time trying to negotiate with them as they are not willing to negotiate. They are essentially a nuclear option unto themselves. What needs to happen is that McCarthy needs to grow a pair and start to negotiate with the moderate Republicans and the Democrats to see where he can find a middle ground that everyone will both agree to and will also support him retaining the speakership as the lesser of many evils available to them. Once he can find that fine line agreement, then he will have his resolution. But he will have to make a lot of concessions to the Democrats and the moderate Republicans to be able to discount and ignore the unreasonable radical fringe.

Dems need a LOT of concessions to vote for a Republican speaker.

Not really. Start from the position that there will be no Democratic candidate that can conceivably win the speakership until after the 2024 election. From that position, they need to look at which of the Republican options will be the least of evils. In this case, McCarthy is probably better than 95-99% of the other candidates in the House. Given that as the start, then they only need some concessions including a full clean budget or CR that adheres to the agreements from the debt ceiling debate (e.g. no funding cuts). McCarthy is likely going to be held to his agreements from back then. And that's likely going to be the only way he will get the government to reopen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, the House votes on the CR on Friday. Gut check time for those folks out there who are rooting against a shut down and the few who are privately rooting for one.

See you trolls are pretty obvious. What Fed is going to blow $$$ on golf fees when next paycheck is uncertain.

You really should thing.

I literally have no idea what you are yelling about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't they realize that shutting down the government does not achieve the outcome they want? Securing the border, cutting the deficit, etc. are not things that will get resolved by shutting down the government and refusing to at least keep things at current levels. This is why we have committees and an appropriations process and that's where those decisions should be deliberated and debated. not at the 11th hour on a CR. these people are insane.

Don’t *you* understand that they don’t actually want any of the things they are always carping about?

The naivete around here is unreal

Actually the naivete of their constituents is unreal. They're the ones who will lose out on this when they can't get their SSA checks or disability or medicaid benefits. these people never learn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on the latest House briefing this am, I’m guessing there will be a shutdown.

prediction event contract at 77% now.

White House is drawing up essential lists. Opm directed to issue guidance.

Does anyone know how often we’ve gotten to this point before and they have worked it out? I can’t remember. I know there’s often shutdown talk and short-term CRs - but what about OPM guidance, etc?

Previous shutdowns don't really relate. There haven't been Congressmen as extreme, rigid and die-hard as the current Freedom Caucus. The whole point is that the federal government is currently being held hostage by a small group of less than 20 extreme Congressmen who are refusing to negotiate in good Faith and a weak speaker who is not willing to use the tools available to him to bypass this small group for fear that he will lose his job.

The Freedom Caucus is a lost cause and they really aren't worth spending the time trying to negotiate with them as they are not willing to negotiate. They are essentially a nuclear option unto themselves. What needs to happen is that McCarthy needs to grow a pair and start to negotiate with the moderate Republicans and the Democrats to see where he can find a middle ground that everyone will both agree to and will also support him retaining the speakership as the lesser of many evils available to them. Once he can find that fine line agreement, then he will have his resolution. But he will have to make a lot of concessions to the Democrats and the moderate Republicans to be able to discount and ignore the unreasonable radical fringe.

PP you’re replying to - thanks. I totally agree with your assessment of the situation; part of my curiosity was in how much the specifics of this particular situation (batshit FC, spineless McCarthy) matter for predicting what will happen.

I wonder if part of the calculus isn’t also about appeasing Trump followers (i.e., batshit FC and their voters), to the extent that Dems would support McCarthy because there are far worse options. Convincing them to support his speakership while also convincing Rs to support concessions is an enormous lift. We need some good old-fashioned centrism, but that seems in very short supply these days.

[Anonymous]

was someone upthread asking about being paid during a shutdown? if you're furloughed you will get a paycheck on 10/13 for 5 days plus 4hrs (4hrs allotted to shut down), so you'll get a little something in the first two weeks of the Fy. I guess better than nothing.