Michael Moore prediction for 2022 election

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

There’s no evidence that they won’t, and that quote assumed nothing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

He was convicted of 1 rape, and is wrapping up his 30 year sentence. The statute of limitations prevented them from moving forward with other prosecutions for the same offender.

[Anonymous]

What the hell is this poster talking about?
The guys served 30 years, right?

Republicans have tried to bring down rape arrests by lowering the age of consent.
How fun to prove your 14 year old slut of a daughter wasn’t asking for it when her pastor fingered her at the vacation bible school camp out.
Vote R “because good men shouldn’t be punished because of the temptation of some teenage jeezabel”

/S

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

There’s no evidence that they won’t, and that quote assumed nothing.

You obviously are completely oblivious to the rightward trend among Hispanics in the past two years. Google is your friend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

If you have evidence that these groups are turning against the Democratic Party, share links.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

BoTh SiDeS

One rapist vs millions of women forced to carry pregnancies they don’t want, including thousands of raped women and girls. As ably pointed out by another PP, your party (I’m sure you’re a “mOdErAtE dEm” on the internet) enables rapists and rape.

Your party is lenient on rape. Do you want to read the quotes the GOP says about rape? First, you have to know that there’s “legitimate rape” that the woman’s body can just “shut down;” so they don’t believe that rape can even cause a pregnancy in the first place. That was Todd Akin, I believe. Then the GOP nom for gov in Michigan says having a baby is “healing” for rape victims. A Utah republican said that women can control the ejaculate in them and don’t get pregnant if they don’t want to. When a woman goes public with a rape, it’s “what was she wearing” or “she was asking for it.” You guys even did that with the first ten year rape victim who had to go out of state to get an abortion, and then when that didn’t work you started blaming the rapist’s immigration status and the rape victim’s mother.

Abortion is healthcare. You think it’s a trivial nothingburger, a value signaling tool that means nothing. And when you think that, you’re advertising that women aren’t people to you. No one thinks the GOP gives a rat’s about rape because they don’t. If they did, they’d support clearing the backlog of rape kits (the GOP in Wisconsin actually voted to make it harder to clear the backlog in their state. Why? The GOP hates women! https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/bill-to-stop-future-backlog-of-untested-rape-kits-appears-dead/)

A vote for the GOP is a vote for fascism. It’s a vote for holding women’s head down under water.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Trump will win unless the Russians stuff ballot boxes for him or corrupt State and Local officials redraw election boundaries like a Picasso cubist-period portrait.

Women are pissed and (normal) Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship, re-registering as Independents or Democrats.

They just don't have the number of voters they had four years ago.

They also conveniently managed to kill off a lot of their reliable voters by convincing them not to get vaccinated.

Is that why my vaccinated husband has had Covid all week and my unvaccinated self still is testing negative?

While that may be the case in your home, stats say otherwise:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-death-rates-higher-republicans-democrats-why-rcna50883
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

There’s no evidence that they won’t, and that quote assumed nothing.

You obviously are completely oblivious to the rightward trend among Hispanics in the past two years. Google is your friend.

There is a small rightward trend, yes, but Latinos still vote for Democrats overall something like 2/3 to 1/3. And they are overwhelmingly pro-choice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Trump will win unless the Russians stuff ballot boxes for him or corrupt State and Local officials redraw election boundaries like a Picasso cubist-period portrait.

Women are pissed and (normal) Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship, re-registering as Independents or Democrats.

They just don't have the number of voters they had four years ago.

They also conveniently managed to kill off a lot of their reliable voters by convincing them not to get vaccinated.

Is that why my vaccinated husband has had Covid all week and my unvaccinated self still is testing negative?

That's for the same reason some people die of an allergic reaction if they take Ibuprofen, get struck by a baseball to the chest that stops their hearts, or break a leg tripping on a single stair. Bodies are different, and they react differently. Some are outliers.

But you don't make public health decisions for groups of people based just on outliers. We don't ban Ibuprofen, or stairs, or baseball. Not even if someone posts online about how their third cousin died from it.

[Anonymous]

I’ve been reading some of Moore’s reasons for why this will be a blue tsunami and his logic is pretty sound. I strongly disagreed with him in 2016 on his prediction but he had reasons and he was correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

BoTh SiDeS

One rapist vs millions of women forced to carry pregnancies they don’t want, including thousands of raped women and girls. As ably pointed out by another PP, your party (I’m sure you’re a “mOdErAtE dEm” on the internet) enables rapists and rape.

Your party is lenient on rape. Do you want to read the quotes the GOP says about rape? First, you have to know that there’s “legitimate rape” that the woman’s body can just “shut down;” so they don’t believe that rape can even cause a pregnancy in the first place. That was Todd Akin, I believe. Then the GOP nom for gov in Michigan says having a baby is “healing” for rape victims. A Utah republican said that women can control the ejaculate in them and don’t get pregnant if they don’t want to. When a woman goes public with a rape, it’s “what was she wearing” or “she was asking for it.” You guys even did that with the first ten year rape victim who had to go out of state to get an abortion, and then when that didn’t work you started blaming the rapist’s immigration status and the rape victim’s mother.

Abortion is healthcare. You think it’s a trivial nothingburger, a value signaling tool that means nothing. And when you think that, you’re advertising that women aren’t people to you. No one thinks the GOP gives a rat’s about rape because they don’t. If they did, they’d support clearing the backlog of rape kits (the GOP in Wisconsin actually voted to make it harder to clear the backlog in their state. Why? The GOP hates women! https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/bill-to-stop-future-backlog-of-untested-rape-kits-appears-dead/)

A vote for the GOP is a vote for fascism. It’s a vote for holding women’s head down under water.

Me again. Want to answer at any point or want to keep your head in the sand?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been reading some of Moore’s reasons for why this will be a blue tsunami and his logic is pretty sound. I strongly disagreed with him in 2016 on his prediction but he had reasons and he was correct.

I agree with Moore. I also think the polling is having a difficult time picking up the impact of abortion being on the line. It’s going to cause weirdness in the turnout models and potentially cross-voting by Republican women who won’t admit to voting for a Democrat.

This isn’t a normal midterm election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been reading some of Moore’s reasons for why this will be a blue tsunami and his logic is pretty sound. I strongly disagreed with him in 2016 on his prediction but he had reasons and he was correct.

I agree with Moore. I also think the polling is having a difficult time picking up the impact of abortion being on the line. It’s going to cause weirdness in the turnout models and potentially cross-voting by Republican women who won’t admit to voting for a Democrat.

This isn’t a normal midterm election.

Yup. People would rather have abortion than be able to afford the basics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been reading some of Moore’s reasons for why this will be a blue tsunami and his logic is pretty sound. I strongly disagreed with him in 2016 on his prediction but he had reasons and he was correct.

I agree with Moore. I also think the polling is having a difficult time picking up the impact of abortion being on the line. It’s going to cause weirdness in the turnout models and potentially cross-voting by Republican women who won’t admit to voting for a Democrat.

This isn’t a normal midterm election.

Yup. People would rather have abortion than be able to afford the basics.

How will Republicans make you able to afford the basics?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been reading some of Moore’s reasons for why this will be a blue tsunami and his logic is pretty sound. I strongly disagreed with him in 2016 on his prediction but he had reasons and he was correct.

I agree with Moore. I also think the polling is having a difficult time picking up the impact of abortion being on the line. It’s going to cause weirdness in the turnout models and potentially cross-voting by Republican women who won’t admit to voting for a Democrat.

This isn’t a normal midterm election.

Yup. People would rather have abortion than be able to afford the basics.

How will Republicans make you able to afford the basics?

For starters, Rs acknowledge that there is an issue. Biden doesnt-- he tells us not to believe our lying eyes. That inflation is transitory, there is no recession, that our economy is strong as hell and all the problems are not real.