Michael Moore prediction for 2022 election

[Anonymous]

I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

They do not say that about the youth vote every time. Every time they say they wish and hope that the youth vote will come out, not that they think they will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

Overturning RvW should change that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

+1

The Republicans talk a big game but time and again they never do anything other than pass tax cuts. It’s impossible to take them seriously. And they will never shut down illegal immigration. All their farming constituency will be up in arms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Trump will win unless the Russians stuff ballot boxes for him or corrupt State and Local officials redraw election boundaries like a Picasso cubist-period portrait.

Women are pissed and (normal) Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship, re-registering as Independents or Democrats.

They just don't have the number of voters they had four years ago.

They also conveniently managed to kill off a lot of their reliable voters by convincing them not to get vaccinated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

You’re right. Forcing raped children to remain pregnant and elected officials telling them it’s a blessing they’ll get used to is way better and way less widespread. And certainly the glut of pedophiles in the GOP suggests they’re completely on the up and up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The fact is, there are millions of women who are single issue voters in this election.

Lol.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

Wait, hold up here -- exactly what do you think happened with his sentence?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds a lot like the "advice" on this forum offered to Democrats after the 2016 election. I'm sure it was intended to be oh so helpful.

+1 Republicans know that if people go to the ballot box and remember what they’ve done to women - how many dead women do we suppose there are as a result of the forced birther politics? How many 10 year olds are pregnant right now with their rapist’s baby? - it will be a bloodbath for the GOP. Hence all the faux Democrats, i.e., Republicans, pretending that abortion isn’t an issue. It is THE issue.

You’re concerned about crime? We know for a fact that unwanted kids become criminals in a few years.

You’re concerned about inflation? Nothing more expensive than another child.

You’re concerned about tyranny? There is nothing more tyrannical than enslaving someone because of your religious beliefs.

Everything revolves around this. When women don’t have equal rights, societies fail. This isn’t some “woke” issue or however Republicans want to denigrate women. This is everything.

I don't know. How many? Isn't how many an important measure of how important in issue this will become? How many dead women are there?

I don’t know about the dead women part (although I do feel confident that there will be exceptions for medical issues once the dust settles on this) but one fantastic thing about this is that democrats might be more motivated to keep rapists locked up forever so they can’t hurt - oops sorry, impregnate, which I guess is a lot more important to some people - more women. There’s a 9 time convicted rapist in Oregon right now (one of his victims was 13!) who is about to be released after half his sentence. He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty but instead will be out soon to rape more women. Let’s focus on getting repeat criminals locked away forever and then you’ll get fence sitters to take you more seriously on abortion laws (and exceptions).

DP. Sure, let's talk about the convicted felon, Richard Gillmore, since this is a case you have brought up as both relevant and politically charged.

Victor George Atiyeh was the governor of Oregon from 1979 to 1987, and Gillmore was convicted in '86. What was the political affiliation of Atiyeh? What was the balance of the Oregon House and Senate that passed the laws he was convicted under? Was he given the maximum sentence allowable under those laws?

"He should have gotten life or frankly death penalty." Okay, so was that the fault of the Democrats or the Republicans -- since you went there?

I’m the PP and I’m actually critical of both parties. I think Rs should have done way more about immigration and crime when they had full control. However, the people releasing that rapist without even serving his sentence (which I agree was far too lenient to begin with) are democrats. If republicans do the same one day then I promise I’d also have a big problem with it. If there’s a red wave, I certainly hope Rs take full advantage of it to fix the crime issues in a more permanent way.

However, in the meantime I’m sorry but I can’t take you seriously when you know there’s a serial rapist who has also raped a young child who is about to be released to do it again and you think the main problem (or solution) here is abortions.

You’re right. Forcing raped children to remain pregnant and elected officials telling them it’s a blessing they’ll get used to is way better and way less widespread. And certainly the glut of pedophiles in the GOP suggests they’re completely on the up and up.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Trump will win unless the Russians stuff ballot boxes for him or corrupt State and Local officials redraw election boundaries like a Picasso cubist-period portrait.

Women are pissed and (normal) Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship, re-registering as Independents or Democrats.

They just don't have the number of voters they had four years ago.

They also conveniently managed to kill off a lot of their reliable voters by convincing them not to get vaccinated.

Is that why my vaccinated husband has had Covid all week and my unvaccinated self still is testing negative?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read all the pages in this thread, but I do think dems will outperform polling this year. I think polling models don’t count a lot of the youth vote, and for good reason. But, this year, young people will vote by the millions.

People say that about the youth vote every time, doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

From the Census:
“Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.”

You are assuming that the demographics you depended on to vote D - Muslims, Hispanic, AA, Asian are going to continue to do same. They aren’t

Why would they want Fascism?