Elrich plan for MoCo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All because our leaders cannot weather the economic storm of a few months staying at home with distance learning and philosophically loath to support our most vulnerable (the elderly and the poor) during an economic downturn.

I beg to differ. It is so obvious that the benefits of the stay at home order at this point are so far outweighed by the incredible costs of the extension, for example:
- poor children and families - witness the food pantry shortages and lines and the fact that it will take YEARS for kids to catch up academically (if ever) to their peers
- children and vulnerable people in dysfunctional homes - witness the lack of child abuse referrals from schools (where often this abuse is identified)
- people with other health needs while not emergencies, will suffer without treatment - imagine all the missed mammograms, screenings, biopsies, trips to ER avoided
- people with substance abuse and mental health issues who are not receiving support
- all the hardworking small business owners, many of whom will see their life's work and dreams gone

If the hospitals/healthcare system is not overrun, we need to open back up so that those of us who are willing to take some reasonable risks - to get a haircut or go to a restaurant or send our children to daycare - can do so.

The two concerns I bolded are the two that don't make sense to me.

Healthcare has not been forced to close by the shutdown. The reason fewer people are seeking ER treatment is not due to the shutdown, it's because people don't feel safe going. If opening up increases the amount of virus, even more people will feel unsafe and not go. The reason why doctors are canceling in person procedures is because they don't feel that they can do them safely. They worry about patients becoming infected with covid, and they worry about other things due to lack of PPE. Increasing the number of infections in the community will increase those problems. This is a problem that will definitely become worse, not better, if we reopen in a matter that isn't safe.

As for small businesses, we know that small businesses in places that aren't shut down are hurting too. We know that in places like Sweden, people are avoiding places, and businesses are still in jeopardy. Allowing these businesses to open, when the actual business won't be there to bring in money, is just a ploy to get out of paying unemployment to people, and without unemployment people will be hurting worse.

What? No elective medical procedures were allowed from the time the shutdown order went into place until last week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All because our leaders cannot weather the economic storm of a few months staying at home with distance learning and philosophically loath to support our most vulnerable (the elderly and the poor) during an economic downturn.

I beg to differ. It is so obvious that the benefits of the stay at home order at this point are so far outweighed by the incredible costs of the extension, for example:
- poor children and families - witness the food pantry shortages and lines and the fact that it will take YEARS for kids to catch up academically (if ever) to their peers
- children and vulnerable people in dysfunctional homes - witness the lack of child abuse referrals from schools (where often this abuse is identified)
- people with other health needs while not emergencies, will suffer without treatment - imagine all the missed mammograms, screenings, biopsies, trips to ER avoided
- people with substance abuse and mental health issues who are not receiving support
- all the hardworking small business owners, many of whom will see their life's work and dreams gone

If the hospitals/healthcare system is not overrun, we need to open back up so that those of us who are willing to take some reasonable risks - to get a haircut or go to a restaurant or send our children to daycare - can do so.

The two concerns I bolded are the two that don't make sense to me.

Healthcare has not been forced to close by the shutdown. The reason fewer people are seeking ER treatment is not due to the shutdown, it's because people don't feel safe going. If opening up increases the amount of virus, even more people will feel unsafe and not go. The reason why doctors are canceling in person procedures is because they don't feel that they can do them safely. They worry about patients becoming infected with covid, and they worry about other things due to lack of PPE. Increasing the number of infections in the community will increase those problems. This is a problem that will definitely become worse, not better, if we reopen in a matter that isn't safe.

As for small businesses, we know that small businesses in places that aren't shut down are hurting too. We know that in places like Sweden, people are avoiding places, and businesses are still in jeopardy. Allowing these businesses to open, when the actual business won't be there to bring in money, is just a ploy to get out of paying unemployment to people, and without unemployment people will be hurting worse.

What? No elective medical procedures were allowed from the time the shutdown order went into place until last week.

Yes, PP about medical procedures. Where has the previous PP been tp not know that elective procedures, surgeries, etc. were not allowed to proceed until last week ( for MD).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

but you're forgetting that just because you tested negative one day doesn't mean you can't go out the next day and contract the virus. So testing 5 percent total doesn't mean anything. 5 percent a day is a different (impossible) story.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

but you're forgetting that just because you tested negative one day doesn't mean you can't go out the next day and contract the virus. So testing 5 percent total doesn't mean anything. 5 percent a day is a different (impossible) story.

Sure -- that's yet another reason why establishing a testing threshold isn't useful.

[Anonymous]

How do we find the numbers for MoCo online?

[Anonymous]

Councilmember Glass posted the reopening criteria:
https://twitter.com/EvanMGlass/status/1261108514916794370?s=20

Notice the peopel replying that MoCo isn't actually publishing the data. Also "sustained decrease".. what number qualifies?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Councilmember Glass posted the reopening criteria:
https://twitter.com/EvanMGlass/status/1261108514916794370?s=20

Notice the peopel replying that MoCo isn't actually publishing the data. Also "sustained decrease".. what number qualifies?

Exactly. Glass said the County is finalizing a dashboard with "all the metrics." Better be complete and better be updated regularly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

And that will be completely unsustainable once PG etc open on June 1. So they'll make themselves look dumb when they backtrack their metrics (probably under pressure from Hogan).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215. Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays. On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county. The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo. In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular. Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt.
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he. Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes. Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU. He said he is focused on nursing homes. All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this. What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic. The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen. State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

And that will be completely unsustainable once PG etc open on June 1. So they'll make themselves look dumb when they backtrack their metrics (probably under pressure from Hogan).

Yup, exactly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Councilmember Glass posted the reopening criteria:
https://twitter.com/EvanMGlass/status/1261108514916794370?s=20

Notice the peopel replying that MoCo isn't actually publishing the data. Also "sustained decrease".. what number qualifies?

Exactly. Glass said the County is finalizing a dashboard with "all the metrics." Better be complete and better be updated regularly.

What a joke. What have they been doing the last 2 months?! Typical Elrich bungling.

[Anonymous]

So Elrich & Gayles say they need to see a 14-day decline in cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ER usage by COVID patients. Fine.

But here's the thing: We haven't actually been adding a huge number of cases or having a huge number of deaths per day.

I don't want to minimize cases or deaths, but I took a 7-day average for MoCo cases: it's 206. Keep in mind that, given a statewide case increase of about 1,000 per day, proportionately we should be adding about 170/day. So we're not doing hugely above what would be expected, and the overage is likely mostly due to universal nursing home testing (MoCo has a lot of nursing homes).

The 7-day average for daily deaths is 14.

So they want a decrease on daily deaths below 14? That's unrealistic, especially considering 90% of last week's deaths in MoCo were in nursing homes.

[Anonymous]

I don’t understand why MOco didn’t just extend for two weeks like PG.