Elrich plan for MoCo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.

I realize that cases go down when cases go down. You realize that too.

I’m curious, do you have a job that you have to attend in person or kids that need to be educated? The current situation isn’t sustainable for much longer. Life is a series of risks, and those of us who feel their personal risk is low should be allowed to venture out with reasonable precautions.

There is no way Erlrich will be able to deliver on testing and contract tracing, and endless SIPs will cause a lawsuit at best and riots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.

Also how are any businesses going to survive if they have to operate at half capacity?

You think they're in a great position now?

What exactly are you arguing? You don't sound very bright.

I'm saying businesses are in a horrible position right now. You might as well give them a shot at serving their customers. Yes, some won't reopen because operating at 50% capacity doesn't make sense, but others will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:“Total cases” and even “new cases” are relatively meaningless to the extent they merely represent identification of heretofore unidentified cases via more widespread testing.

New hospital admissions/new ICU admissions (or more precisely change in daily populations) is a much stronger indicator of the current state of serious disease.

+1
and the majority of the people who test positive via increased testing are likely not even very ill (not tested as ordered by doctor, in a hospital, etc), making it an even more meaningless statistic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.

I realize that cases go down when cases go down. You realize that too.

I’m curious, do you have a job that you have to attend in person or kids that need to be educated? The current situation isn’t sustainable for much longer. Life is a series of risks, and those of us who feel their personal risk is low should be allowed to venture out with reasonable precautions.

There is no way Erlrich will be able to deliver on testing and contract tracing, and endless SIPs will cause a lawsuit at best and riots.

Exactly.

IMO, the drop-dead point for him is Phase 2, when childcare facilities and restaurants come back online. If MoCo doesn't open childcare facilities with the rest of the state, parents will go insane.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.

Then we should just reopen and let the few who are not risk adverse go on with normal life.

That might work if it didn’t put everyone else at risk because there’s no way for the not-risk adverse to guarantee they won’t catch it and spread it. It’s like saying that you feel safe spraying an AK-47 into the air at midnight on NYE and anyone who is worried should just stay home and not worry about stray bullets.

[Anonymous]

Didn't he say that 1500 people are currently in the hospital and that 4 out of 6 county hospitals are near capacity?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.

Well, places that have reopened show that's false.

Judging from S.K., people flood those places and then get ill. Which is additional strain on both the health care industry and the economy. My cousin is a business owner, she just sent an email to her employees that she was remaining closed to protect their health now and reduce health care costs in the future so she can continue to provide it as a benefit.

For South Korea, that was a nightclub.

No one is talking about opening restaurants in MD, much less nightclubs.

DP.. then what are people wanting to open if not restaurants and barbershops?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Total cases” and even “new cases” are relatively meaningless to the extent they merely represent identification of heretofore unidentified cases via more widespread testing.

New hospital admissions/new ICU admissions (or more precisely change in daily populations) is a much stronger indicator of the current state of serious disease.

+1
and the majority of the people who test positive via increased testing are likely not even very ill (not tested as ordered by doctor, in a hospital, etc), making it an even more meaningless statistic.

That's even more valuable information, finding the asymptomatic positives. If that's what all or some of the new cases are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.

I realize that cases go down when cases go down. You realize that too.

I’m curious, do you have a job that you have to attend in person or kids that need to be educated? The current situation isn’t sustainable for much longer. Life is a series of risks, and those of us who feel their personal risk is low should be allowed to venture out with reasonable precautions.

There is no way Erlrich will be able to deliver on testing and contract tracing, and endless SIPs will cause a lawsuit at best and riots.

Exactly.

IMO, the drop-dead point for him is Phase 2, when childcare facilities and restaurants come back online. If MoCo doesn't open childcare facilities with the rest of the state, parents will go insane.

This is why Hogan is a problem. Not Erlich.

[Anonymous]

Good for Erlich.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.

Well, places that have reopened show that's false.

Judging from S.K., people flood those places and then get ill. Which is additional strain on both the health care industry and the economy. My cousin is a business owner, she just sent an email to her employees that she was remaining closed to protect their health now and reduce health care costs in the future so she can continue to provide it as a benefit.

For South Korea, that was a nightclub.

No one is talking about opening restaurants in MD, much less nightclubs.

People around here will crowd any place that opens.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

Yeah that was pretty cringeworthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Total cases” and even “new cases” are relatively meaningless to the extent they merely represent identification of heretofore unidentified cases via more widespread testing.

New hospital admissions/new ICU admissions (or more precisely change in daily populations) is a much stronger indicator of the current state of serious disease.

New cases aren't meaningless if the virus is to be contained.

If testing is capturing all the cases, yes. But when, as here, all cases are 10 to 50x confirmed positives, you can be getting increased cases while actual infection rates are dropping. Which is why percent of tests that are positive is a more meaningful piece of data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.

Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."

The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.

Then we should just reopen and let the few who are not risk adverse go on with normal life.

That might work if it didn’t put everyone else at risk because there’s no way for the not-risk adverse to guarantee they won’t catch it and spread it. It’s like saying that you feel safe spraying an AK-47 into the air at midnight on NYE and anyone who is worried should just stay home and not worry about stray bullets.

That is a ridiculous analogy because an AK-47 is much more lethal than Covid. I REALLY wished they taught stats in school. We have a entire segment of society that believes whatever is on the front page of their news app is the most risky thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Didn't he say that 1500 people are currently in the hospital and that 4 out of 6 county hospitals are near capacity?

? No that's impossible. MD has 1600 people in the hospital total. Is he seriously saying all but 100 of those people are in MoCo? That seems impossible. Moreover, the hospital alert system suggests only 2 hospitals in MoCo are full right now.