Reply to Elrich plan for MoCo

Forum Index » Health and Medicine

Reply to "Elrich plan for MoCo"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Source for all time series data: https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

On May 6, the total number of deaths in MoCo was 304 and nursing homes were 215.  Maryland updates the Nursing homes stats on Wednesdays.  On May 13, the total number of deaths was 386 in the county.  The nursing home report was 289.

The increase in deaths over that week was 82 in total in MoCo.  In the nursing homes, it was 74 or 90% of the increase in deaths.

Case increases are difficult to do, because unclear if nursing homes are being tested regular.  Hogan has said yes, but a recent statement by Dr. Gayles shed doubt. 
We do not have data on hospitalizations or ICUs and Dr. Gayles has noted neither does he.  Source: Bethesda Beat - recent articles.

Clearly, the focus needs to be on nursing homes.  Hogan is using death, hospitalization, and ICU.  He said he is focused on nursing homes.  All of this is backed by a team of Hopkins doctors.

How is achieving 5% aligned with any of this.  What is MoCo they doing given up to 90% of this situation is likely in nursing homes?

On Tuesday this week, Erlich recommended a 3.5% raise for county employees with additional other benefits - saying the economy would rebound. More than 77,200 residents have filed for unemployment since March.

I cannot follow the logic.  The suffering amongst the many of the at risk groups in our county is growing daily.

[/quote]

I 100% agree.

None of MoCo’s reopening metrics get at the crux of the problem, which is what is happening in nursing homes.[/quote]

Correct - and as the state numbers continue to plateau/decrease, MoCo is going to feel severe pressure to reopen.   State numbers look good again today:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/[/quote]

Those are yesterday's numbers (they update at 10am daily), but yeah, we had a good day yesterday.

Here's the crux of my problem with MoCo's plan, beyond the fact that they don't focus on the SS hospitals that have been overwhelmed and the nursing homes:

They have different criteria than Hogan for reopening, and their criteria are virtually unattainable, at least within any reasonable time period. Gayles said he wants 14 days of declining cases amid a testing environment in which we've tested 5% of MoCo's population.

Let's break that down. Of course, they haven't released county-level data for testing (and hospitalizations, but that's another story), so we have to make some assumptions. MD has been testing about 3,000 people/day. MoCo accounts for 1/6th of MD's population, so let's assume we also account for 1/6th of the people being tested. So that's 500 people/day being tested in MoCo. 5% of MoCo's population is 50,000 people. Gayles said they've tested 3% so far, so we have 20,000 people to go. At a rate of 500 people/day, it will take 40 days to reach the 5% threshold. I know they said they're ramping up testing, but we can't assume that's going to happen quickly, given the problems with obtaining and processing tests.

So basically, Gayles and Elrich have signed us up for at least 40 days before we can hope to enter Phase 1.

[/quote]

And that will be completely unsustainable once PG etc open on June 1.  So they'll make themselves look dumb when they backtrack their metrics (probably under pressure from Hogan).[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics