Elrich plan for MoCo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

+1. To all this. The thing that concerns me the most is that there appears to be two people making decisions for Montgomery county (vs. the team Hogan has) and that the approach seems haphazard and not driven by the data. I get his periodic email is and have seen nothing about how they are going to address the spread within and between nursing homes.

I wonder if ElricH would be going against the state if the governor were another democrat (and in saying this as a Dem), and how stubborn he will be to stick to these criteria. It literally could be months before we get to Phase 1.

Patience
Think of it as the Marshmallow test for a child.
Patience now begets better results later

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

+1. To all this. The thing that concerns me the most is that there appears to be two people making decisions for Montgomery county (vs. the team Hogan has) and that the approach seems haphazard and not driven by the data. I get his periodic email is and have seen nothing about how they are going to address the spread within and between nursing homes.

I wonder if ElricH would be going against the state if the governor were another democrat (and in saying this as a Dem), and how stubborn he will be to stick to these criteria. It literally could be months before we get to Phase 1.

Patience
Think of it as the Marshmallow test for a child.
Patience now begets better results later

Will it though. What it will do is spare MoCo residents false hope. Everyone else who opens will have to shut back down in the fall anyway. Moco residents will be fully in the SIP groove by then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So guys:

Elrich wants a 14 day decline in deaths. We have averaged 14 deaths a day.

So does that mean he wants deaths down to zero?

That and 14 days of declining cases while increasing testing. Lots of crazy math going on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So guys:

Elrich wants a 14 day decline in deaths. We have averaged 14 deaths a day.

So does that mean he wants deaths down to zero?

That and 14 days of declining cases while increasing testing. Lots of crazy math going on.

Yup!

In my mind, he has until we get to phase 2. No one in MoCo is going to put up with childcare facilities opening up in other parts of the state and not in MoCo, especially if we continue to have 75+% of our deaths happening in nursing homes (which, as it happens, he seems to have no plan to address).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been made pretty clear northern va, moco, and dc will be in lockstep. Just pay attention to what those other areas are saying and ignore this wishy washy nonsense.

? So you're saying MoCo will just blindly go along with NoVA and the District, even if MoCo hasn't met its unattainable criteria for reopening? I doubt it.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. The'll walk it back, say they're reassured by XYZ criteria instead and bla bla bla cover their asses about the fact they set out this impossible criteria. Moco will not be a lone island of closure if everyone else opens.

This is correct. If reopening go well elsewhere, they will cite nursing home / centralized data (which any sane person knows they should have done in the first place), etc and open elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

I took the liberty of calculating 7-day rolling averages of MoCo deaths and cases, since that’s some of what Elrich/Gayles are looking at, but haven’t posted. I can’t do ICU, hospitalizations, or ER usage because they haven’t made that data public.

I went back to May 8th. We are on a 3-day streak of declining cases (calculated as 7-day rolling averages: 216, 206, and 204.

Deaths are: 11.7, 12.4, 12.4. Of course, the problem with asking for a 14-day decline in deaths is that we are actually *below* 14, on average, at this point. So is Elrich wanting negative deaths? That metric makes zero sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I took the liberty of calculating 7-day rolling averages of MoCo deaths and cases, since that’s some of what Elrich/Gayles are looking at, but haven’t posted. I can’t do ICU, hospitalizations, or ER usage because they haven’t made that data public.

I went back to May 8th. We are on a 3-day streak of declining cases (calculated as 7-day rolling averages: 216, 206, and 204.

Deaths are: 11.7, 12.4, 12.4. Of course, the problem with asking for a 14-day decline in deaths is that we are actually *below* 14, on average, at this point. So is Elrich wanting negative deaths? That metric makes zero sense.

awesome, thanks for doing that! It would be great if they could post it on their website.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took the liberty of calculating 7-day rolling averages of MoCo deaths and cases, since that’s some of what Elrich/Gayles are looking at, but haven’t posted. I can’t do ICU, hospitalizations, or ER usage because they haven’t made that data public.

I went back to May 8th. We are on a 3-day streak of declining cases (calculated as 7-day rolling averages: 216, 206, and 204.

Deaths are: 11.7, 12.4, 12.4. Of course, the problem with asking for a 14-day decline in deaths is that we are actually *below* 14, on average, at this point. So is Elrich wanting negative deaths? That metric makes zero sense.

awesome, thanks for doing that! It would be great if they could post it on their website.

No problem!

They say they’re working on a dashboard ... I hope it includes all the criteria for reopening (cases, deaths, ICU, hospitalizations, ER usage, and testing).

[Anonymous]

Where can I find MoCo specific tracking info? MoCo Dept of Health website doesn't have that.

Can someone post a link if MoCo has such websites?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where can I find MoCo specific tracking info? MoCo Dept of Health website doesn't have that.

Can someone post a link if MoCo has such websites?

They say a dashboard is “forthcoming.” So far, all that’s on their own website is what’s also on coronavirus.maryland.gov.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where can I find MoCo specific tracking info? MoCo Dept of Health website doesn't have that.

Can someone post a link if MoCo has such websites?

They say a dashboard is “forthcoming.” So far, all that’s on their own website is what’s also on coronavirus.maryland.gov.

No wonder i couldn't find it. Below website has some info at county level. I wanted to look at county's own reporting if available.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where can I find MoCo specific tracking info? MoCo Dept of Health website doesn't have that.

Can someone post a link if MoCo has such websites?

They say a dashboard is “forthcoming.” So far, all that’s on their own website is what’s also on coronavirus.maryland.gov.

No wonder i couldn't find it. Below website has some info at county level. I wanted to look at county's own reporting if available.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Yeah, that doesn’t have data for all MoCo’s reopening criteria. We need to be able to track the metrics they are using to reopen: cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU usage, ER usage, and testing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I’m going to be as thrilled to vote against Elrich as I am Trump. I hate incompetence regardless of the party.

I 100% agree.

Me too. What a joke today was.

Agree. And I'm a Takoma Park Democrat--i.e. his base. It's not even the result--i.e. extended closure--that I think is unreasonable. But the incredible vague plan, inane standards, and disregard for economic hardship. He's playing at being President, as if he has a CDC and PPE manufacturing and rigorous data at his disposal, instead of recognizing he is county executive with none of the above, and questionable authority to boot.

Agree 100% with this. I am beyond frustrated that our county council seems to be no more functional than the WH. Earlier this week I received an email from a councilman touting the proposal he had sent to Elrich for a plan to test nursing homes, and a meeting he was requesting next week to discuss he proposal. Are you kidding me? Two months in and you have a proposal, and in another week or two you’ll start discussing it? We are F’d.

Imagine a hot summer to come, with no county rec programs, no public pools open, and thousands of low income kids living in homes with no a/c, parents with no jobs and the stimulus checks long since spent. We have some serious social breakdowns coming.

Yes we seem to be competing with White House for level of lack of transparency and lack of functioning.

And we don’t seem to care at all about all the poverty in our county - immigrants, blue color workers. This lack of functioning government has serious consequences to many at risk groups.