Base Schools Sending Most Students to TJ

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frost has about 150 AAP kids per grade... their admit rate is 14%,

Lake Braddock has 190 AAP kids per grade... but the admit rate is 10%

The raw numbers tell a misleading story.

You guys should stop using the word "misleading" whenever something doesn't fit your preferred narrative. It's ironic that, in a thread that in part is about a STEM school, you'd find numbers threatening.

it depends what you are using them for.
Still not clear to me what it matters that TJ students live mostly in two areas of the county - Langley/McLean and the western part around Chantilly/Reston/Herndon/Oakton (which as someone pointed out extends way out to almost Loudoun County). Is there some takeaway of earth-shattering significance to be gained from OP’s list?

[Anonymous]

I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ the last two posts explain well who is going to TJ and why. The base schools data in the OP has little to do with it. Just a correlation without much meaning.

No, it tells you a lot. You just don't know what it means.

well go ahead and humour me and give it (another) shot. What does it tell you?

The breakdown by HS data tells you more about where the students who attend TJ actually live and how those high schools are impacted by the loss of students to TJ.

The MS data is more informative if all you want to check is which AAP centers send the most kids to TJ. The size of the MS AAP centers, however, varies considerably, since some areas have higher concentrations of AAP kids than others and there is more capacity for an AAP center at some schools than others. Here's roughly how many ES send their AAP kids to the MS centers:

South County 5 (138)
Longfellow 7.5 (534)
Carson 9 (558)
Kilmer 9.5 (444)
Glasgow 10 (301)
Frost 11 (321)
Hughes 12.5 (203)
Sandburg 14 (291)
Twain 14 (190)
Jackson 14.5 (333)
Lake Braddock 16 (362)
Rocky Run 17 (612)

So you'd expect Rocky Run to send a lot of kids to TJ, which it does, but buying into an area that has Rocky Run as its AAP center doesn't, by itself, tell you much. On the other hand, Carson and Longfellow are the two other biggest feeders to TJ, yet they pull from a much smaller number of elementary schools. So that gives you a somewhat stronger signal.

I added the number of AAP students at each MS AAP center so you can now see the number of ES feeding into each AAP center and the number of AAP students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

[Anonymous]

^^ Frost, not Front

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

Right. So now explain to me what difference it makes how many kids at TJ live in Langley and McLean? Which I think was OP’s original reason for starting the thread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ the last two posts explain well who is going to TJ and why. The base schools data in the OP has little to do with it. Just a correlation without much meaning.

No, it tells you a lot. You just don't know what it means.

well go ahead and humour me and give it (another) shot. What does it tell you?

The breakdown by HS data tells you more about where the students who attend TJ actually live and how those high schools are impacted by the loss of students to TJ.

The MS data is more informative if all you want to check is which AAP centers send the most kids to TJ. The size of the MS AAP centers, however, varies considerably, since some areas have higher concentrations of AAP kids than others and there is more capacity for an AAP center at some schools than others. Here's roughly how many ES send their AAP kids to the MS centers:

South County 5 (138)
Longfellow 7.5 (534)
Carson 9 (558)
Kilmer 9.5 (444)
Glasgow 10 (301)
Frost 11 (321)
Hughes 12.5 (203)
Sandburg 14 (291)
Twain 14 (190)
Jackson 14.5 (333)
Lake Braddock 16 (362)
Rocky Run 17 (612)

So you'd expect Rocky Run to send a lot of kids to TJ, which it does, but buying into an area that has Rocky Run as its AAP center doesn't, by itself, tell you much. On the other hand, Carson and Longfellow are the two other biggest feeders to TJ, yet they pull from a much smaller number of elementary schools. So that gives you a somewhat stronger signal.

I added the number of AAP students at each MS AAP center so you can now see the number of ES feeding into each AAP center and the number of AAP students.

But the pertinent issue isn't, in and of itself, the number of feeder ESs-- it's the number of AAP ES Center feeders. Carson may only have 9 ESs feeding in, but has the Oak Hill, Navy & NcNair Centers, plus the Waples Mills kids whose Center is Hunters Woods. And McNair and Oak Hill are big ES Centers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

Right. So now explain to me what difference it makes how many kids at TJ live in Langley and McLean? Which I think was OP’s original reason for starting the thread.

Because Langely is THE BEST. At all things. Clearly. (And even though Rocky Run and Carson are adjacent to each other).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

Right. So now explain to me what difference it makes how many kids at TJ live in Langley and McLean? Which I think was OP’s original reason for starting the thread.

Because Langely is THE BEST. At all things. Clearly. (And even though Rocky Run and Carson are adjacent to each other).

Ah. Got it. I knew I was missing something.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

Right. So now explain to me what difference it makes how many kids at TJ live in Langley and McLean? Which I think was OP’s original reason for starting the thread.

Because Langely is THE BEST. At all things. Clearly. (And even though Rocky Run and Carson are adjacent to each other).

You don't need to be so whiny. It's no wonder FCPS hasn't released this data before. Some people take it as such a personal affront, when it's just some interesting numbers.

Anyway, Carson isn't "adjacent" to Rocky Run, as Franklin is closer to both schools than they are to each other. The distance between Carson and Rocky Run is actually the same as that between Kilmer and Longfellow (slightly over four miles).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ the last two posts explain well who is going to TJ and why. The base schools data in the OP has little to do with it. Just a correlation without much meaning.

No, it tells you a lot. You just don't know what it means.

well go ahead and humour me and give it (another) shot. What does it tell you?

The breakdown by HS data tells you more about where the students who attend TJ actually live and how those high schools are impacted by the loss of students to TJ.

The MS data is more informative if all you want to check is which AAP centers send the most kids to TJ. The size of the MS AAP centers, however, varies considerably, since some areas have higher concentrations of AAP kids than others and there is more capacity for an AAP center at some schools than others. Here's roughly how many ES send their AAP kids to the MS centers:

South County 5 (138)
Longfellow 7.5 (534)
Carson 9 (558)
Kilmer 9.5 (444)
Glasgow 10 (301)
Frost 11 (321)
Hughes 12.5 (203)
Sandburg 14 (291)
Twain 14 (190)
Jackson 14.5 (333)
Lake Braddock 16 (362)
Rocky Run 17 (612)

So you'd expect Rocky Run to send a lot of kids to TJ, which it does, but buying into an area that has Rocky Run as its AAP center doesn't, by itself, tell you much. On the other hand, Carson and Longfellow are the two other biggest feeders to TJ, yet they pull from a much smaller number of elementary schools. So that gives you a somewhat stronger signal.

I added the number of AAP students at each MS AAP center so you can now see the number of ES feeding into each AAP center and the number of AAP students.

You have to take 1/2 of the numbers you added to get the rate. The number you added is for both 7th and 8th grade. The number admitted would come out of the number of kids in 8th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have seen a breakdown by MS of number of kids who apply to TJ, number who make it through the first round, and number admitted, but I can't remember where. Does anyone have those numbers?

Here you go. Knock yourself out parsing the number s of applied vs. semi finalists vs accepted...

http://thebullelephant.com/fairfax-middle-schools-send-students-tjhsst/

Here you go-- % of kids who applied that were admitted:

Carson 35%
RR 31%
Longfellow: 32.5%
Kilmer: 19%
Front: 21.6%
LBSS: 16.8%
Jackson: 16.2%
Twain: 13.5%

Which means Carson, RR and Longfellow are far and away better at sending their kids to TJ than the other FCPS MSs/

Or kids who go to those schools are prepping for TJ more than other areas. There might be some influence of family ambition and prep services that are higher at those schools than other schools.

[Anonymous]

If so many kids are going to tj from mclean ara, they should mine tj there

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ the last two posts explain well who is going to TJ and why. The base schools data in the OP has little to do with it. Just a correlation without much meaning.

No, it tells you a lot. You just don't know what it means.

well go ahead and humour me and give it (another) shot. What does it tell you?

The breakdown by HS data tells you more about where the students who attend TJ actually live and how those high schools are impacted by the loss of students to TJ.

The MS data is more informative if all you want to check is which AAP centers send the most kids to TJ. The size of the MS AAP centers, however, varies considerably, since some areas have higher concentrations of AAP kids than others and there is more capacity for an AAP center at some schools than others. Here's roughly how many ES send their AAP kids to the MS centers:

South County 5 (138)
Longfellow 7.5 (534)
Carson 9 (558)
Kilmer 9.5 (444)
Glasgow 10 (301)
Frost 11 (321)
Hughes 12.5 (203)
Sandburg 14 (291)
Twain 14 (190)
Jackson 14.5 (333)
Lake Braddock 16 (362)
Rocky Run 17 (612)

So you'd expect Rocky Run to send a lot of kids to TJ, which it does, but buying into an area that has Rocky Run as its AAP center doesn't, by itself, tell you much. On the other hand, Carson and Longfellow are the two other biggest feeders to TJ, yet they pull from a much smaller number of elementary schools. So that gives you a somewhat stronger signal.

I added the number of AAP students at each MS AAP center so you can now see the number of ES feeding into each AAP center and the number of AAP students.

You have to take 1/2 of the numbers you added to get the rate. The number you added is for both 7th and 8th grade. The number admitted would come out of the number of kids in 8th grade.

That's true, but I didn't say anything about a "rate" there. These numbers just tell you how many ES feed into different MS AAP centers and how many AAP students there are at those centers. If you want to do a different analysis, or pull together other numbers, that's up to you.