Crime was DOWN everywhere in DC in 2022… except Ward 3 where it increased

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

It’s more than perception. Since the DC resident population has decreased, combined with fewer MD/VA residents coming into the District to work each day, we are experiencing much more crime on a per capita basis.

Both sides have their stats, of course. And we can argue who’s are better. But at the end of the day you can’t argue that the quality of life in DC has decreased significantly. Whether it’s the pharmacy in upper NW locking up basic consumer products, the odor of marijuana in the parks where kids play, or national retail chains closing locations due to crime. These are huge red flags for policymakers, which they appear more than happy to ignore. There will come a tipping point when residents with means will flee. It always happens. It happened to NYC in the 1970s, DC in the 1980s and it is happening to San Francisco now.

At the end of the day I trust Tony Williams about 1000% times more than any of the current council members. So I trust his opinion on this issue.

[Anonymous]

Just today there was a shootout in broad daylight in Friendship Heights and yesterday someone was stabbed to death in Dupont Circle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

It’s more than perception. Since the DC resident population has decreased, combined with fewer MD/VA residents coming into the District to work each day, we are experiencing much more crime on a per capita basis.

Both sides have their stats, of course. And we can argue who’s are better. But at the end of the day you can’t argue that the quality of life in DC has decreased significantly. Whether it’s the pharmacy in upper NW locking up basic consumer products, the odor of marijuana in the parks where kids play, or national retail chains closing locations due to crime. These are huge red flags for policymakers, which they appear more than happy to ignore. There will come a tipping point when residents with means will flee. It always happens. It happened to NYC in the 1970s, DC in the 1980s and it is happening to San Francisco now.

At the end of the day I trust Tony Williams about 1000% times more than any of the current council members. So I trust his opinion on this issue.

+1 Perception is reality. If people don’t feel safe then it will alter their behavior and choices. Maybe they will decide not to live in a certain neighborhood. Maybe they will decide to move out of the District entirely. Regardless of data and historical trends, if people don’t feel safe it is a real problem and needs to be taken seriously.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this explains a lot about the entire nature of the discussion around crime in DC.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/01/05/violent-crime-stats-dc-2022
“Violent crime has decreased in most parts of D.C. compared to five years ago. Wards 4, 6, and 7 had the biggest drops.

Ward 3 in Upper Northwest is an outlier, with a slight uptick last year”

Aggregate crime statistics are not very reliable because of changes in reporting from year to year. Look at a violent crime that is reliably reported every time — the best example is homicide. Homicide rates are up massively in DC over the past five years, all across the city. In fact they’ve almost doubled. That’s the best violent crime indicator, and it shows a big jump

I wouldn't only focus on the murder rate, though -- for one, you're much likelier to be the victim of a different violent crime than you are to be murdered. If the homicide rate goes down but other violent crimes go up, I wouldn't generally find that reassuring.

For another, the homicide rate can also fluctuate wildly based on random factors -- did one shooter in an incident one year fire a bunch of random shots that killed multiple people besides their intended target, then the next year, some other shooter's aim was better? If so, the homicide rate will look like it dropped, but for absolutely no reason.

200+ murders two years in a row for the first time in 20 years is newsworthy and doesn’t seem like wild fluctuations to most people.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/washington-dc-records-back-back-years-200-murders/story?id=95975853

[Anonymous]

A shooting in Cleveland Park last night:https://www.popville.com/2023/01/shooting-dc-cleveland-park/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A shooting in Cleveland Park last night:https://www.popville.com/2023/01/shooting-dc-cleveland-park/

Chief Contee was talking about how the difference in violent gun crimes is just aim. Thankfully no one died but questions have to be asked. Where is Siddiqui? Just two days ago he’s retweeting people on Twitter boosting opinions that MPD has too much budget and that more cops doesn’t reduce crime. Where is he now? Why does he have nothing to say about this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A shooting in Cleveland Park last night:https://www.popville.com/2023/01/shooting-dc-cleveland-park/

Chief Contee was talking about how the difference in violent gun crimes is just aim. Thankfully no one died but questions have to be asked. Where is Siddiqui? Just two days ago he’s retweeting people on Twitter boosting opinions that MPD has too much budget and that more cops doesn’t reduce crime. Where is he now? Why does he have nothing to say about this?

We need a Siddiqui recall. His behavior is simply awful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A shooting in Cleveland Park last night:https://www.popville.com/2023/01/shooting-dc-cleveland-park/

Chief Contee was talking about how the difference in violent gun crimes is just aim. Thankfully no one died but questions have to be asked. Where is Siddiqui? Just two days ago he’s retweeting people on Twitter boosting opinions that MPD has too much budget and that more cops doesn’t reduce crime. Where is he now? Why does he have nothing to say about this?

We need a Siddiqui recall. His behavior is simply awful.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this explains a lot about the entire nature of the discussion around crime in DC.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/01/05/violent-crime-stats-dc-2022
“Violent crime has decreased in most parts of D.C. compared to five years ago. Wards 4, 6, and 7 had the biggest drops.

Ward 3 in Upper Northwest is an outlier, with a slight uptick last year”

Aggregate crime statistics are not very reliable because of changes in reporting from year to year. Look at a violent crime that is reliably reported every time — the best example is homicide. Homicide rates are up massively in DC over the past five years, all across the city. In fact they’ve almost doubled. That’s the best violent crime indicator, and it shows a big jump

I wouldn't only focus on the murder rate, though -- for one, you're much likelier to be the victim of a different violent crime than you are to be murdered. If the homicide rate goes down but other violent crimes go up, I wouldn't generally find that reassuring.

For another, the homicide rate can also fluctuate wildly based on random factors -- did one shooter in an incident one year fire a bunch of random shots that killed multiple people besides their intended target, then the next year, some other shooter's aim was better? If so, the homicide rate will look like it dropped, but for absolutely no reason.

200+ murders two years in a row for the first time in 20 years is newsworthy and doesn’t seem like wild fluctuations to most people.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/washington-dc-records-back-back-years-200-murders/story?id=95975853

Yes, but I was talking about how the murder rate can DROP more than overall violent crime.

[Anonymous]

Ward 3 has yet to have a murder this year, me thinks crime isn't actually up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

But it’s more than just the data, which as concerning that it is it is also probably suppressed due to under reporting and decriminalization. But it’s also about the drop in the quality of life in Ward 3 with consumer goods locked up in stores, a sharp increase in pan handlers, adult men smoking pot in the playgrounds/parks. Ward 3 was never perfect but it was not a bad place to raise a family. Not so much anymore. And our council rep doesn’t even seem to care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

It’s more than perception. Since the DC resident population has decreased, combined with fewer MD/VA residents coming into the District to work each day, we are experiencing much more crime on a per capita basis.

Both sides have their stats, of course. And we can argue who’s are better. But at the end of the day you can’t argue that the quality of life in DC has decreased significantly. Whether it’s the pharmacy in upper NW locking up basic consumer products, the odor of marijuana in the parks where kids play, or national retail chains closing locations due to crime. These are huge red flags for policymakers, which they appear more than happy to ignore. There will come a tipping point when residents with means will flee. It always happens. It happened to NYC in the 1970s, DC in the 1980s and it is happening to San Francisco now.

At the end of the day I trust Tony Williams about 1000% times more than any of the current council members. So I trust his opinion on this issue.

I am not a fan of the current administration, but my quality of life in DC hasn't really gone down. That would just be a lie. Yes, I smell more weed, but it doesn't ruin my day. I live in NE so my products have always been locked up. Which national retail chains closed due to crime? Don't say City Winery because they used that as an excuse. The place sucked and the businesses around it are thriving.

I want crime to go down, but I'm not going overboard either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

It’s more than perception. Since the DC resident population has decreased, combined with fewer MD/VA residents coming into the District to work each day, we are experiencing much more crime on a per capita basis.

Both sides have their stats, of course. And we can argue who’s are better. But at the end of the day you can’t argue that the quality of life in DC has decreased significantly. Whether it’s the pharmacy in upper NW locking up basic consumer products, the odor of marijuana in the parks where kids play, or national retail chains closing locations due to crime. These are huge red flags for policymakers, which they appear more than happy to ignore. There will come a tipping point when residents with means will flee. It always happens. It happened to NYC in the 1970s, DC in the 1980s and it is happening to San Francisco now.

At the end of the day I trust Tony Williams about 1000% times more than any of the current council members. So I trust his opinion on this issue.

I am not a fan of the current administration, but my quality of life in DC hasn't really gone down. That would just be a lie. Yes, I smell more weed, but it doesn't ruin my day. I live in NE so my products have always been locked up. Which national retail chains closed due to crime? Don't say City Winery because they used that as an excuse. The place sucked and the businesses around it are thriving.

I want crime to go down, but I'm not going overboard either.

Good for you for fighting the good fight but you're wasting your time. You're trying to reason with someone who genuinely believes "I had to smell a smell I personally dislike while walking outside" is a "significant decrease" in their quality of life. This person does not live in reality, nothing you say will penetrate their veil of hysteria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

But it’s more than just the data, which as concerning that it is it is also probably suppressed due to under reporting and decriminalization. But it’s also about the drop in the quality of life in Ward 3 with consumer goods locked up in stores, a sharp increase in pan handlers, adult men smoking pot in the playgrounds/parks. Ward 3 was never perfect but it was not a bad place to raise a family. Not so much anymore. And our council rep doesn’t even seem to care.

Do you really think Ward 3 is a bad place to raise a family now? Obviously that's up to you, but I don't feel that way at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Take a walk around the city. Talk to people. Crime is up by a ton. Police are just making it harder and harder to report it. I personally went to the police station to report a crime a couple months ago. There were two people in line in front of me. No reports were actually filed as the police basically refused to do anything. This is the same as I have seen on the streets. These stats are fully fake.

+1 I think these stats reflect that Ward 3 residents are more likely to be lawyers, have lawyers, or be taken seriously by the police. Crime was significantly up in my small slice of Ward 4 but the refrain was constant: we found bullet casings and shattered windows, but didn't see anything, so nothing to report. Lucky if it even gets filed as property crime, mostly it just disappears. My cleaner's car was broken into twice in 3 months during the few hour stretch it was parked during the afternoon - the first time she didn't file a report the second time she got a lecture about leaving anything in her car, and the cop still didn't make a report.