Crime was DOWN everywhere in DC in 2022… except Ward 3 where it increased

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Our car was stolen. DC considers it a 'property crime' that insurers will 'take care of'. They don't consider the impact on insurance rates etc and the burden on citizens in time drained. The impact on livleihood if you need to get to a job, They literally dgaf about car crimes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Our car was stolen. DC considers it a 'property crime' that insurers will 'take care of'. They don't consider the impact on insurance rates etc and the burden on citizens in time drained. The impact on livleihood if you need to get to a job, They literally dgaf about car crimes.

Carjacking, car theft, and comparative negligence are all issues under DC government control that drive up the price of insurance that they refuse to do anything about or in the case of comparative negligence intentionally implemented. It’s hard to see how the government is looking out for residents best interests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Our car was stolen. DC considers it a 'property crime' that insurers will 'take care of'. They don't consider the impact on insurance rates etc and the burden on citizens in time drained. The impact on livleihood if you need to get to a job, They literally dgaf about car crimes.

Carjacking, car theft, and comparative negligence are all issues under DC government control that drive up the price of insurance that they refuse to do anything about or in the case of comparative negligence intentionally implemented. It’s hard to see how the government is looking out for residents best interests.

They had a car crime task force for a minute and then disbanded it? They have a lot of harrassment of residents to answer to, for sure.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I think this explains a lot about the entire nature of the discussion around crime in DC.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/01/05/violent-crime-stats-dc-2022
“Violent crime has decreased in most parts of D.C. compared to five years ago. Wards 4, 6, and 7 had the biggest drops.

Ward 3 in Upper Northwest is an outlier, with a slight uptick last year”

Aggregate crime statistics are not very reliable because of changes in reporting from year to year. Look at a violent crime that is reliably reported every time — the best example is homicide. Homicide rates are up massively in DC over the past five years, all across the city. In fact they’ve almost doubled. That’s the best violent crime indicator, and it shows a big jump

I wouldn't only focus on the murder rate, though -- for one, you're much likelier to be the victim of a different violent crime than you are to be murdered. If the homicide rate goes down but other violent crimes go up, I wouldn't generally find that reassuring.

For another, the homicide rate can also fluctuate wildly based on random factors -- did one shooter in an incident one year fire a bunch of random shots that killed multiple people besides their intended target, then the next year, some other shooter's aim was better? If so, the homicide rate will look like it dropped, but for absolutely no reason.

Murder is important not just because it represents murders but because it’s the best indicator or index crime for many other forms of serious violence. Murder is basically the most extreme form of assault. When murders are soaring other violent crimes less likely to be reported and accurately tracked are probably going way up too.

Also, the trend in DC murders is not that they are “fluctuating wildly based on random factors”. It is that they went straight up like an arrow from 2017-2021. Have you looked at the murder stats? Up from I think around 110 in 2017 to around 220 in 2021 (don’t have the exact figures on me). That’s not random fluctuation it’s one of the biggest murder increases on record

It can fluctuate fairly randomly year to year, though -- homicide was down 10 percent in 2022 over 2021, but I take it you don't think that's a sign that violent crime overall is going in the right direction?

One point of data does not equal a trend. It will take at least three years of declining murders to confirm that it is “going in the right direction”.

But that’s exactly why you shouldn’t only focus on the homicide rate if you’re trying to look at violent crime overall.

You can only focus on the homicide rate because that is the only data that can be independently verified and it is also the violent crime that is the most consequential. Why you want to downplay murder I have no idea.

I’m not trying to downplay murder. I’m saying it fluctuates more randomly than aggregate violent crime does. Murder was down 10 percent last year but other violent crime was down less. Which stat seems more representative to you of crime trends in D.C.?

Evidence?

Well, for one, the homicide rate fell more sharply than the overall violent crime rate last year. But also, the numbers are much smaller — there are thousands of other violent crimes compared to 200 to 250 murders. That means one fluke — like, someone survives a near-fatal shooting — can make the homicide rate appear to drop for reasons that have nothing to do with public safety.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this explains a lot about the entire nature of the discussion around crime in DC.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/01/05/violent-crime-stats-dc-2022
“Violent crime has decreased in most parts of D.C. compared to five years ago. Wards 4, 6, and 7 had the biggest drops.

Ward 3 in Upper Northwest is an outlier, with a slight uptick last year”

Aggregate crime statistics are not very reliable because of changes in reporting from year to year. Look at a violent crime that is reliably reported every time — the best example is homicide. Homicide rates are up massively in DC over the past five years, all across the city. In fact they’ve almost doubled. That’s the best violent crime indicator, and it shows a big jump

I wouldn't only focus on the murder rate, though -- for one, you're much likelier to be the victim of a different violent crime than you are to be murdered. If the homicide rate goes down but other violent crimes go up, I wouldn't generally find that reassuring.

For another, the homicide rate can also fluctuate wildly based on random factors -- did one shooter in an incident one year fire a bunch of random shots that killed multiple people besides their intended target, then the next year, some other shooter's aim was better? If so, the homicide rate will look like it dropped, but for absolutely no reason.

Murder is important not just because it represents murders but because it’s the best indicator or index crime for many other forms of serious violence. Murder is basically the most extreme form of assault. When murders are soaring other violent crimes less likely to be reported and accurately tracked are probably going way up too.

Also, the trend in DC murders is not that they are “fluctuating wildly based on random factors”. It is that they went straight up like an arrow from 2017-2021. Have you looked at the murder stats? Up from I think around 110 in 2017 to around 220 in 2021 (don’t have the exact figures on me). That’s not random fluctuation it’s one of the biggest murder increases on record

It can fluctuate fairly randomly year to year, though -- homicide was down 10 percent in 2022 over 2021, but I take it you don't think that's a sign that violent crime overall is going in the right direction?

One point of data does not equal a trend. It will take at least three years of declining murders to confirm that it is “going in the right direction”.

But that’s exactly why you shouldn’t only focus on the homicide rate if you’re trying to look at violent crime overall.

You can only focus on the homicide rate because that is the only data that can be independently verified and it is also the violent crime that is the most consequential. Why you want to downplay murder I have no idea.

I’m not trying to downplay murder. I’m saying it fluctuates more randomly than aggregate violent crime does. Murder was down 10 percent last year but other violent crime was down less. Which stat seems more representative to you of crime trends in D.C.?

Evidence?

Well, for one, the homicide rate fell more sharply than the overall violent crime rate last year. But also, the numbers are much smaller — there are thousands of other violent crimes compared to 200 to 250 murders. That means one fluke — like, someone survives a near-fatal shooting — can make the homicide rate appear to drop for reasons that have nothing to do with public safety.

So one year is evidence of a broad conclusion?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

+1. I hope the old man gets off with no charges — folks shouldn’t have to ascertain whether a carjacker has a gun or not, the burden should be on the carjacker if they die or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Our car was stolen. DC considers it a 'property crime' that insurers will 'take care of'. They don't consider the impact on insurance rates etc and the burden on citizens in time drained. The impact on livleihood if you need to get to a job, They literally dgaf about car crimes.

Redistributing property is “equity”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

Car thefts are way up all over. Virginia has a huge surge in both car jacking and car thefts. Every Prius in our neighborhood had its catalytic converter stolen. Those are not in the car car theft numbers for Virginia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

Car thefts are way up all over. Virginia has a huge surge in both car jacking and car thefts. Every Prius in our neighborhood had its catalytic converter stolen. Those are not in the car car theft numbers for Virginia.

Good point. it happens in Virginia too so DC crime is acceptable.

GFY

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

+1. I hope the old man gets off with no charges — folks shouldn’t have to ascertain whether a carjacker has a gun or not, the burden should be on the carjacker if they die or not.

More citizens like him and crime will drop overnight. When can we schedule the parade?

[Anonymous]

My elderly aunt had to move out of her rent controlled apartment in one of the big buildings in ward 3 because there were too many voucher tenants who were making life unbearable with noise, smoking, and increased assaults. They also didn't feel safe in the neighborhood any longer and felt like crime was getting worse. Her adult daughter was attacked in Cleveland park parking lot getting to her car. Maybe it was the coincidence that one of them was a victim of a crime, or the place was getting turned into a housing project, IDK, I just know they left for a garden apartment in the burbs.

I posted an article here some time ago criticizing free housing voucher situation, because government would pay above market rents for these undesirable tenants landlords would otherwise never rent to, but they didn't provide them any service to help them integrate or policed them. Many of these voucher recipients were previously unhoused, some had criminal records and drug related issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My elderly aunt had to move out of her rent controlled apartment in one of the big buildings in ward 3 because there were too many voucher tenants who were making life unbearable with noise, smoking, and increased assaults. They also didn't feel safe in the neighborhood any longer and felt like crime was getting worse. Her adult daughter was attacked in Cleveland park parking lot getting to her car. Maybe it was the coincidence that one of them was a victim of a crime, or the place was getting turned into a housing project, IDK, I just know they left for a garden apartment in the burbs.

I posted an article here some time ago criticizing free housing voucher situation, because government would pay above market rents for these undesirable tenants landlords would otherwise never rent to, but they didn't provide them any service to help them integrate or policed them. Many of these voucher recipients were previously unhoused, some had criminal records and drug related issues.

Yes, it's a travesty. Everything you say is true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Through Jan 12, 189 cases of auto theft DC. 89% increase vs this time last year.

Cars are being stolen like crazy and people wonder why an old man had enough last week.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

yep

Car thefts are way up all over. Virginia has a huge surge in both car jacking and car thefts. Every Prius in our neighborhood had its catalytic converter stolen. Those are not in the car car theft numbers for Virginia.

Good point. it happens in Virginia too so DC crime is acceptable.

GFY

The whataboutism on crime that people think justifies what DC is doing is so ridiculously stupid.

In any case, even these excuses are false. The FBI says that violent crime rates in Maryland have been declining rapidly over the past few years and that violent crime rates in Virgina are unchanged and substantially lower than the country as a whole. So the reality is that what’s going on in DC is exceptional even within the region.

https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think this explains a lot about the entire nature of the discussion around crime in DC.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/01/05/violent-crime-stats-dc-2022
“Violent crime has decreased in most parts of D.C. compared to five years ago. Wards 4, 6, and 7 had the biggest drops.

Ward 3 in Upper Northwest is an outlier, with a slight uptick last year”

Way to ignore the elephant in the room.

Compared to 2019 crime is UP UP UP everywhere.