Crime was DOWN everywhere in DC in 2022… except Ward 3 where it increased

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Crime down? They decriminalized everything

Things that didn’t happen for $100, Alex.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think one issue is that people are finding out about the violent crimes in their neighborhood now, when before they didn't pay attention and often didn't know. I say this as a Ward 6 resident. Here are examples of what I'm talking about:

Seven or eight years ago, I was getting my hair cut in Eastern Market and learned from my hairdresser that there had been a string of sexual assaults in the neighborhood at night and it was really stressful for everyone who worked there. It only came up because I had noticed that she used to do evening appointments and I hadn't seen them on the website, and she said that she and the other stylists were avoiding them if they could because they didn't feel safe leaving the salon and walking to their cars after dark. Apparently it had been going on for months and the police had no leads. But I had no idea -- I read the Post regularly, including the local section, I talk to my neighbors, I frequent EM a lot. And after this conversation, I mentioned it to numerous neighbors and no one had heard anything about it. Since it was mostly impacting workers in and around EM, not residents, and I guess those groups don't chat with each other enough, a lot of people were totally unaware of this serious crime spree occurring in the neighborhood.

Now, there are several crime reporting accounts on Twitter that track 911 calls and post about them constantly. I hear about every mugging, every car jacking, I'd definitely hear about a string of sexual assaults. I actually unfollowed these accounts over the summer because they are very aggressive in how they report (ALL CAPS, they post frequent follow ups, often they use very dire language about the crimes) and it was having a serious impact on my mental health. But I still see these posts a lot because they get retweeted and replied to by politicians and reports who I also follow. There is this heightened sense on Twitter that the neighborhood is going to pot, and I see it reflected in the comments on DCUM as well. Also the website Nextdoor, which I don't use much but am on, is very active on crime issues and if you read comments on there, it makes you feel like crime is content and worsening daily.

But as my DH likes to remind me, when we first moved here, there was regular drug traffic on the street outside our house, there were shooting within a few blocks of our home every few months. We'd hear about bodies being found in cars or homes in the surrounding neighborhood, and "foul play suspected". There was a lot of gang activity. I did not walk home alone at night and we initially had zero plans to stay here once we had kids because of the crime. But over the 8 years we lived her pre-kids, things change a lot for the better. The drug dealers disappeared, the shootings got less and less. In place of the crime a lot of great businesses and community popped up. Other people around us were having kids here, we decided to give it a try. It's actually gone really well, and despite the continued crime, I still feel a million times safer than I did when I moved here, and I don't worry about my kids either. There are certain precautions we take, but the benefits far outweigh the costs.

It's easy to lose perspective when you are being inundated with notifications about every crime. This is a city, of course there is crime. But the idea that the crime in this neighborhood is worse than 5 years ago doesn't hold up, and the idea that it's worse than 10 or 20 years ago? Laughable. This neighborhood has come a very long way.

The MPD-1D listserv has been around for years as a primary source, as was the old NewHillEast listserv on Yahoo. Plus there was the Voice of the Hill BB and meetings with MPD brokered by Tommy Wells and ANC6B. There was a fair amount of information out there but it’s undoubtedly easier to get info today from sources like Alan Henney. If you’re referring to the home invasion/assaults from 2015ish, they were pretty well covered by the media. That said, MPD 1D has been notoriously awful about notifying the community in real time about violent assaults.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

[Anonymous]

Arrests are probably indeed down. If that’s how they’re measuring crime. Same with reporting it. People either aren’t bothering to because 1) they figure it’s a pointless waste of time because police won’t do anything, or 2) they’re afraid they’ll be called racists on DCUM for calling the police to report they were held up at gunpoint by three black teens.

[Anonymous]

Wow, crime happens West of the Park. Film at 11.

[Anonymous]

Wonder what they include in violent crime. Homicides are up from 5 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wow, crime happens West of the Park. Film at 11.

Violent crime is increasing west of the park. Do you think people should be more victimized by violent crime based on where they live?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

I get it now. An intolerable level of violent crime for you will be when you are a victim but not before. Thanks for the clarification. I’m sure that all of the violent crime victims are relieved to know that what happen to them was only a “little bit” more crime that their government could not have protected them from in any case. Meanwhile, they must be stare at Western Avenue and wonder why it’s so magical at reducing violent crime when their own “policy makers” cannot seem to figure it out.

Applying utilitarian arguments to violent crime is pretty disturbing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

I get it now. An intolerable level of violent crime for you will be when you are a victim but not before. Thanks for the clarification. I’m sure that all of the violent crime victims are relieved to know that what happen to them was only a “little bit” more crime that their government could not have protected them from in any case. Meanwhile, they must be stare at Western Avenue and wonder why it’s so magical at reducing violent crime when their own “policy makers” cannot seem to figure it out.

Applying utilitarian arguments to violent crime is pretty disturbing.

It isn't a utilitarian argument, and who says I'd change my views on crime if I were a victim? (I support a lot of policies that don't benefit me personally.) And anyway, violent crime in Montgomery County was up in 2022, so I don't see what your point about Western Avenue is supposed to be.

I'm not saying crime doesn't matter. I'm saying what matters is the crime rate, not what people think about it. That cuts both ways: If crime spikes, then my personal experience not being a victim of it would also be unimportant. But an increase of .6 percent in one ward as crime falls citywide probably isn't going to prompt the type of response you seem to be hoping for. (Or, actually, it probably will, because our ward has plenty of clout to get what people here want.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wonder what they include in violent crime. Homicides are up from 5 years ago.

Homicides are up in every area of the country from 5 years ago. It’s a societal wide problem, regardless of who is in power.

[Anonymous]

These threads are so amusing. DC is a crime-ridden tent city and people here are like b-b-b-b-ut crime isn't really up! Happy to read and laugh from a nice, leafy suburb where carjackings and shootings are not part of my morning digest anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Typical of many discussions of crime. Perception is not reality.

Cue someone posting that DC police don't ever take police reports seriously so statistics are meaningless.

Well, the reality is that people in Ward 3 who perceive that crime is getting worse are in fact correct, because they are experience higher violent crime. While people in the rest of the city are experience lower violent crime, which is what spurs comments like yours. It might be worthwhile to consider that there can actually be a factual basis that drives peoples perceptions.

On the other hand, there are also other people in Ward 3, like me, who are not experiencing higher violent crime (I have not been a victim of violent crime in 20+ years living in D.C., whether I lived in Ward 2, Ward 1, Ward 4, or Ward 3). So... sure, if it's all just down to perception based on personal experience, you're going to have a wide range of beliefs.

But a .6 percent increase in violent crime is not likely to be noticeable to anyone except the relatively small number of people who were victims of the crimes, especially in a context where overall violent crime citywide is down.

What's DEFINITELY up is discussion of crime and rhetoric around crime increasing, even if the stats don't really back that up.

That’s awesome. Congratulations on not being a crime victim. However, your attitude of “If it doesn’t affect me, then it’s not a problem” is quite selfish and disrespectful to crime victims. In all honestly, it sounds pretty Republican. Everyone looking out for themself.

No, my point was that you can't make policy based on perception -- some people perceive crime to be worse, some people don't.

That’s a fascinating viewpoint when you are saying that your perception is that the increase in crime is NBD because you weren’t a victim and that people who were victims or concerned about the increase in crime in their neighborhood have a false perception? Except actual data to the contrary?

No, I replied to one person who said that yes, Ward 3 crime is up so therefore people's perception of crime being up is accurate, by pointing out that there are a lot of people whose perception of crime did not go up. Perception is totally subjective and hard to measure; actual crime is easy to measure. If crime is up in Ward 3, that's a policy problem that can be addressed. If people's perception of crime is up — even more than crime is up — that's a political problem. But regardless, the policy solution should deal with what the stats are, not what people think about crime.

Measured violent crime went up and you said that the amount it went up was insignificant. So… not sure what your point is aside from believing that you don’t perceive to be at risk because you have not been a crime victim. That’s a very selfish and Republican attitude.

Measured violent crime in Ward 3 went up, by a very small amount. That's a fact that policymakers can work with. (MPD's crime mapping tool for some reason is showing me it went down in 2022 -- there were 79 violent crimes in Ward 3 in 2021 and 75 in 2022 -- but let's assume that's wrong.)

What policymakers cannot do much useful with is people's feelings about crime. We all approach this issue with different perspectives based on our own experiences. Some people might say, "I feel as if crime is worse here, and it did go up, therefore, my feelings are correct," and my point was that I or people like me might say, "Oh, but I don't perceive crime to be worse." If we start making policy concerned primarily with people's opinions about crime rather than with the crime stats, whose opinions or feelings do we prioritize?

For whatever it's worth, I understand you're trying to win the argument by calling me a Republican, but I don't really think saying that urban crime is less of a problem than people think it is is a standard GOP talking point.

I get it now. An intolerable level of violent crime for you will be when you are a victim but not before. Thanks for the clarification. I’m sure that all of the violent crime victims are relieved to know that what happen to them was only a “little bit” more crime that their government could not have protected them from in any case. Meanwhile, they must be stare at Western Avenue and wonder why it’s so magical at reducing violent crime when their own “policy makers” cannot seem to figure it out.

Applying utilitarian arguments to violent crime is pretty disturbing.

It isn't a utilitarian argument, and who says I'd change my views on crime if I were a victim? (I support a lot of policies that don't benefit me personally.) And anyway, violent crime in Montgomery County was up in 2022, so I don't see what your point about Western Avenue is supposed to be.

I'm not saying crime doesn't matter. I'm saying what matters is the crime rate, not what people think about it. That cuts both ways: If crime spikes, then my personal experience not being a victim of it would also be unimportant. But an increase of .6 percent in one ward as crime falls citywide probably isn't going to prompt the type of response you seem to be hoping for. (Or, actually, it probably will, because our ward has plenty of clout to get what people here want.)

I disagree. Perception of crime matters. If people feel they are not safe, it affects their quality of life. If people can’t sit on their porches without worrying they will be hit by stray gunfire, or send their kids to a park because they worry about the needles and drug paraphernalia, it matters. To cite an example you may be more familiar with, if a bicyclist worries they will be right hooked by a vehicle giving insufficient deference to a bike lane, well, we see how that community responds.

The individual odds of any of those happening is low. But the perception of the threat matters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:These threads are so amusing. DC is a crime-ridden tent city and people here are like b-b-b-b-ut crime isn't really up! Happy to read and laugh from a nice, leafy suburb where carjackings and shootings are not part of my morning digest anymore.

Popcorn?