2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you really think stories about Robinson will flip NC for Harris? It seems too good to be true. Also, 538 says they are tied right now as of Sept. 18.

I suspected NC could flip before the latest on Robinson. He’s horrible.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you really think stories about Robinson will flip NC for Harris? It seems too good to be true. Also, 538 says they are tied right now as of Sept. 18.

I think it will definitely help. It won't switch R -> D but it may suppress R.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you really think stories about Robinson will flip NC for Harris? It seems too good to be true. Also, 538 says they are tied right now as of Sept. 18.

It still seems a 50-50 shot at absolute best there for Harris, sort of like GA eventually narrowly going for Biden in 2020. But Robinson is a bad candidate, he’s been polling badly for WEEKS behind Stein (the D candidate for Gov), basically no one is enthusiastic about him, and he’s absolutely going to harm the other state-wide and local races for the R side, regardless of what happens with Pres voting in the state. Hee hee!!!!

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

The latest Silver projection:

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

There was something else interesting in the poll: While Georgia voters preferred Trump by three points in the poll, they predicted by an 11-point margin that Harris would win.

While 48 percent thought Harris would win, just 37 percent said the same of Trump.

...
This is not the only recent poll showing voters — by a significant margin — expect Harris to win.
...
A 2012 paper from economists David Rothschild of Microsoft Research and Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan actually found that this question was more predictive of election outcomes than polls of voting intent.

Looking at 60 years of state polls that asked such questions, it found that the presidential candidates people expected to win won those states 81 percent of the time, while the polling leaders won 69 percent of the time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/19/more-voters-expect-harris-win-heres-why-that-could-actually-matter/

[Anonymous]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/19/more-voters-expect-harris-win-heres-why-that-could-actually-matter/

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Who is VP Vance?

Harris does not need TX and FL.

What's a wasted Democrat vote? Are big vote totals in states like TN wasted?

Your post is a mess.

And in the wrong thread.

[Anonymous]

Polls show a significant gap in enthusiasm favoring Harris.

How so?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why is Tester doing so poorly in Montana? I thought he was well liked.



Polls ending Aug. 29, 2024

U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024, General election

Aug. 25-29
600 LV
Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research
AARP Tester 45% 51% Sheehy Sheehy +6
Aug. 25-29
600 LV
Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research
AARP Tester 41% 49% Sheehy More Sheehy +8



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/

Harris is pulling him down. Which is why he withheld his delegate vote for her at the DNC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This guy is a MAGA troll, right?
Posting a Sept 9 poll on Sept 20.

Meanwhile:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

9/9 - 9/18 Morning Consult 51% 44% D+ 6.3
9/4 - 9/8 ABC/WaPo 51% 43% D+ 8
8/30 - 9/8 Morning Consult 52% 42% D+9.7