Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

If Biden can squeak out a win in TX, it’s lights out for Trump. I can’t even envision a path to victory for Trump without TX.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Biden can squeak out a win in TX, it’s lights out for Trump. I can’t even envision a path to victory for Trump without TX.

There is none.

And if Biden wins FL he needs only one other state, most likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds exactly like all those polls that had Hillary comfortably leading and then look what happened.

Do you know anyone being remotely complacent about this year? We now know just how hard the GOP cheats.

Also, PP is ignorant about the 2016 polls. Hillary was never "comfortably leading." I hate this myth. The polls were tight and pretty much predicted what happened -- she won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the electoral college because of a few thousand votes in 3 states. The nationwide polls conducted right before the election had her up 3-4 points. Why do so many people forget this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

Some of the state-level polling was wonky, but the nationwide polling was just about right on.

Now, to turn to 2020: Biden has perhaps the largest lead for a challenger in at least 30 years.

According to the 538 polling averages, for the states where they have enough data to calculate an avg, Trump is up outside the margin of error in 7 states:

Alabama -- +15
Kentucky -- +17
Kansas -- +9
Missouri -- +4
SC -- +8
Tennessee -- +11
Utah -- +7.5 (which is a pathetic margin for the GOP)

He's tied with Biden in Texas and Iowa. TEXAS. Who would've thought that?

🤞🏼

Was that an emoji of some sort?

Fingers crossed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds exactly like all those polls that had Hillary comfortably leading and then look what happened.

Do you know anyone being remotely complacent about this year? We now know just how hard the GOP cheats.

Also, PP is ignorant about the 2016 polls. Hillary was never "comfortably leading." I hate this myth. The polls were tight and pretty much predicted what happened -- she won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the electoral college because of a few thousand votes in 3 states. The nationwide polls conducted right before the election had her up 3-4 points. Why do so many people forget this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

Some of the state-level polling was wonky, but the nationwide polling was just about right on.

Now, to turn to 2020: Biden has perhaps the largest lead for a challenger in at least 30 years.

According to the 538 polling averages, for the states where they have enough data to calculate an avg, Trump is up outside the margin of error in 7 states:

Alabama -- +15
Kentucky -- +17
Kansas -- +9
Missouri -- +4
SC -- +8
Tennessee -- +11
Utah -- +7.5 (which is a pathetic margin for the GOP)

He's tied with Biden in Texas and Iowa. TEXAS. Who would've thought that?

🤞🏼

Was that an emoji of some sort?

Fingers crossed.

Ooh got it. It showed up really small on my screen, so I couldn't see what it was.

And yeah -- to the person above who said if Biden wins TX it's done -- you're right. Anyone who wins NY, CA, and TX basically has the ballgame. You don't even need FL. Biden can win with:

The west coast (CA, WA, OR)
CO
NM
TX
The Acela corridor (but he can lose PA)
MN
MI
IL

He can drop FL, IA, the Carolinas, basically the entire mid-west except for the 3 states I mentioned. That would give him 280.

That's the power of combining CA, TX, and NY.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

[Anonymous]

^ Also that things can change very quickly. That Comey letter. Who knows what surprises we have in store this time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

The nationwide polls predicted almost perfectly what happened in the POPULAR vote.

The reason Clinton lost was because of a few thousand votes in 3 states, but the state-level polling was showing all sorts of warning signs.

Remember when Bernie won Michigan? That's not because they all loved Bernie (Biden creamed him this time around). It's because they hate Clinton. That should've told everyone how shty a candidate she was.

There are no warning signs in the state or nationwide polling right now. Can things change? Yes, but Clinton had significant weaknesses that were well apparent by June 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

The nationwide polls predicted almost perfectly what happened in the POPULAR vote.

The reason Clinton lost was because of a few thousand votes in 3 states, but the state-level polling was showing all sorts of warning signs.

Remember when Bernie won Michigan? That's not because they all loved Bernie (Biden creamed him this time around). It's because they hate Clinton. That should've told everyone how shty a candidate she was.

There are no warning signs in the state or nationwide polling right now. Can things change? Yes, but Clinton had significant weaknesses that were well apparent by June 2016.

I will thank you to come on here and re-post this at least twice a day for the next few months to talk me down a bit.

Thank you.

[Anonymous]

Everyone who supports Biden should be acting like he is down 3 points and work tail to encourage people to register to vote and support the candidates down ballot like your lives depend on it. Because, as Trump is showing the world, they do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

The nationwide polls predicted almost perfectly what happened in the POPULAR vote.

The reason Clinton lost was because of a few thousand votes in 3 states, but the state-level polling was showing all sorts of warning signs.

Remember when Bernie won Michigan? That's not because they all loved Bernie (Biden creamed him this time around). It's because they hate Clinton. That should've told everyone how shty a candidate she was.

There are no warning signs in the state or nationwide polling right now. Can things change? Yes, but Clinton had significant weaknesses that were well apparent by June 2016.

I will thank you to come on here and re-post this at least twice a day for the next few months to talk me down a bit.

Thank you.

Sure. I’m happy to do that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Everyone who supports Biden should be acting like he is down 3 points and work tail to encourage people to register to vote and support the candidates down ballot like your lives depend on it. Because, as Trump is showing the world, they do.

Amen.

[Anonymous]