Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

There’s going to be an October surprise like what Comey did. No way Trump doesn’t have some dirty tricks up his sleeve.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There’s going to be an October surprise like what Comey did. No way Trump doesn’t have some dirty tricks up his sleeve.

I'm sure he will try, but I don't see it working. Biden isn't Hillary. We seem immune to scandal. And Trump now has a record to defend.

[Anonymous]

Florida and Arizona were turned by the very large numbers of seniors in those states. And the seniors are revolting (the peasants are revolting! ah, that's because they're peasants) against Trump since many of them feel that Trump and Republican leadership are sacrificing them on the altar of the economy by opening up too soon. Just over 20% of the population of Florida are seniors and they are some of the most devoted voters in Florida. They always come out and vote and they are very definite that they vote for those who put their priorities first. Trump has essentially lost those two states by tossing the seniors to the Covid-19 wolves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

So Texas is legit in play? OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Florida and Arizona were turned by the very large numbers of seniors in those states. And the seniors are revolting (the peasants are revolting! ah, that's because they're peasants) against Trump since many of them feel that Trump and Republican leadership are sacrificing them on the altar of the economy by opening up too soon. Just over 20% of the population of Florida are seniors and they are some of the most devoted voters in Florida. They always come out and vote and they are very definite that they vote for those who put their priorities first. Trump has essentially lost those two states by tossing the seniors to the Covid-19 wolves.

If Biden gets AZ and FL he likely won’t need Wi, Mi, or Pa.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So Texas is legit in play? OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

Yup. Check out 538. The last four polls have Texas as a toss up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Florida and Arizona were turned by the very large numbers of seniors in those states. And the seniors are revolting (the peasants are revolting! ah, that's because they're peasants) against Trump since many of them feel that Trump and Republican leadership are sacrificing them on the altar of the economy by opening up too soon. Just over 20% of the population of Florida are seniors and they are some of the most devoted voters in Florida. They always come out and vote and they are very definite that they vote for those who put their priorities first. Trump has essentially lost those two states by tossing the seniors to the Covid-19 wolves.

If Biden gets AZ and FL he likely won’t need Wi, Mi, or Pa.

Get them all. Show the GOP, the 30% and the world what the USA really stands for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

When you're three points ahead in the national polls, you may not always win the election. But when you’re ten points ahead in the national polls, it’s really, really hard not to win the election.

Everyone who supports Biden should be acting like he is down 3 points and work tail to encourage people to register to vote and support the candidates down ballot like your lives depend on it. Because, as Trump is showing the world, they do.

But yes, THIS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Florida and Arizona were turned by the very large numbers of seniors in those states. And the seniors are revolting (the peasants are revolting! ah, that's because they're peasants) against Trump since many of them feel that Trump and Republican leadership are sacrificing them on the altar of the economy by opening up too soon. Just over 20% of the population of Florida are seniors and they are some of the most devoted voters in Florida. They always come out and vote and they are very definite that they vote for those who put their priorities first. Trump has essentially lost those two states by tossing the seniors to the Covid-19 wolves.

If Biden gets AZ and FL he likely won’t need Wi, Mi, or Pa.

Never, ever, ever, bet that the people of Florida will do the sensible thing. How many times have they let the country down?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^ Also that things can change very quickly. That Comey letter. Who knows what surprises we have in store this time.

And foreign interference is a total wild card.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Florida and Arizona were turned by the very large numbers of seniors in those states. And the seniors are revolting (the peasants are revolting! ah, that's because they're peasants) against Trump since many of them feel that Trump and Republican leadership are sacrificing them on the altar of the economy by opening up too soon. Just over 20% of the population of Florida are seniors and they are some of the most devoted voters in Florida. They always come out and vote and they are very definite that they vote for those who put their priorities first. Trump has essentially lost those two states by tossing the seniors to the Covid-19 wolves.

If Biden gets AZ and FL he likely won’t need Wi, Mi, or Pa.

Never, ever, ever, bet that the people of Florida will do the sensible thing. How many times have they let the country down?

True, but Biden has many paths to victory.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Keep paddling. You know Trump and his gang of racist assholes like Barr, Stephen Miller, and even Roger Stone are plotting with all the Trumpwad governors to block voting and steal the election. We need to beat his ass by 15% to make sure he cannot steal it. Blue wave. Wash away the corruption.

[Anonymous]

Biden wins all the states won by Clinton ‘16, flips PA (they love him there) and MI (the narrowest margin for Trump ‘16), flips AZ (Senate race polling has Mark Kelly up there and I believe that will continue into the Presidential race). Trump holds OH, IA, FL, GA, narrowly wins WI. Holds TX, GOP has some breathing room for the near future. NC comes down to multiple recounts but eventually goes for Biden by a hair’s margin.