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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026[/quote]

Signs of base erosion detected.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1275722118123184129?s=21[/twitter][/quote]
Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.[/quote]

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.[/quote]

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth. [/quote]

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.[/quote]

The nationwide polls predicted almost perfectly what happened in the POPULAR vote.

The reason Clinton lost was because of a few thousand votes in 3 states, but the state-level polling was showing all sorts of warning signs.

Remember when Bernie won Michigan? That's not because they all loved Bernie (Biden creamed him this time around). It's because they hate Clinton. That should've told everyone how shty a candidate she was.

There are no warning signs in the state or nationwide polling right now. Can things change? Yes, but Clinton had significant weaknesses that were well apparent by June 2016. [/quote]

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